Today (April 25), A-Shares fell miserably again. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. The stock index remained low in the morning and had no power to fight back. The index continued to weaken in the afternoon and accelerated the diving in the late afternoon. It showed a pulsed downward pattern throughout the day, showing a panoramic view of the weakness.
As of the close of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 5.13% to 292851; The Shenzhen composite index fell 6.08% to 1037928 points; The gem index fell 5.56% to 216900.
From the disk point of view, the general decline market reappeared, the industry and concept sectors did their best, more than 4600 stocks fell, and the local profit-making effect was poor. In terms of industries, mining, shipbuilding, non-ferrous metals, chemical raw materials, computer equipment, games, automobile services, education and other industries fell sharply. In terms of theme stocks, scarce resources, mobile game concept, blade battery, organic silicon, phosphorus chemical industry and other decline were the top.
In terms of funds, according to the website of the people’s Bank of China, on April 25, the people’s Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, released about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, and carried out 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase by means of interest rate bidding.
hot sector
Top 10 industry sector declines
Top ten decline concept sectors
individual shares monitoring
Top 10 net inflow of main forces
Top 10 net outflow of main force
northbound funds
southbound funds
message surface
1. According to China Securities News, on April 22, the people’s Bank of China, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange respectively conveyed, studied and implemented the spirit of the special meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, and studied and deployed the next work. The content of the meeting mentioned key topics of market concern such as capital market, monetary policy and foreign exchange reform. Industry experts said that looking forward to the follow-up, China’s economy and finance maintain good toughness and vitality, and the long-term fundamentals will not change. The multi sectoral communication, study and implementation of the spirit of the special meeting of the financial commission of the State Council will effectively guide market expectations and boost market confidence.
2. According to the news on the Chinese government website on April 25, the general office of the State Council recently issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption. It is proposed to strengthen the guarantee of land and housing. We will strengthen the economical, intensive and comprehensive utilization of land and houses, and encourage department stores and old factories with difficult operation to be transformed into new consumption carriers. It is encouraged to provide land for express logistics enterprises by means of lease before concession and combination of lease and concession. To meet the needs of small-scale land use for rural tourism, home stay, outdoor sports camps and related infrastructure construction, actively explore suitable land supply methods, and encourage the integration and agglomeration of relevant facilities. Optimize the lease management of state-owned property resources, appropriately extend the lease term, and better meet the land and housing needs of supermarkets, convenience stores and other consumer places. Support the construction of convenient outlets by using community stock real estate, idle houses, etc. Allow conditional communities to use the surrounding free land or designated specific space to orderly develop the second-hand market.
3. On the 25th, the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, which proposed to break the barriers restricting consumption. We will remove institutional barriers and hidden barriers in some key service consumption areas in an orderly manner, promote the coordination and unification of standards, rules and policies in different regions and industries, and simplify and optimize the handling procedures of relevant licenses or certificates. We will steadily increase the consumption of automobiles and other large quantities. All regions shall not add new measures to restrict the purchase of automobiles. Regions that have implemented purchase restrictions will gradually increase the number of automobile increment indicators, relax the restrictions on the qualifications of car buyers, encourage purchase restriction areas other than individual megacities to implement differentiated policies for urban and suburban indicators, regulate the use of automobiles through legal, economic and scientific means, and gradually eliminate automobile purchase restrictions according to local conditions, Promote the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management. Establish and improve the management mechanism of automobile refitting industry and accelerate the development of automobile aftermarket. We will completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of second-hand cars, and implement the inter provincial measures for the registration of small non operating second-hand car transactions. Fine management shall be implemented for pickup trucks entering the city, and the restrictions on pickup trucks entering the city shall be further relaxed.
4. According to People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) news, recently, the State Administration of Taxation, the Ministry of public security, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of transport and other ten departments jointly issued the notice on Further Strengthening the support of export tax rebate and promoting the stable development of foreign trade. The Circular aims to help foreign trade enterprises alleviate difficulties, promote the steady development of import and export, give better play to the effectiveness of export tax rebate, which is inclusive, fair and in line with international rules and policies, and optimize the foreign trade business environment in many aspects.
institutional views
For the current market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the A-share market opened low and fell sharply on Monday, and the European and American markets fell sharply on Friday. Affected by multiple bad news over the weekend, the Asia Pacific market plunged sharply in the morning. The stock indexes of the two cities fell sharply after opening low in the morning, and the mainstream industries such as banking, wine making, military industry, semiconductor and cycle fell sharply in turn. The Shanghai index broke through the integer mark of 3000 points, and the market panic spread, Some investors chose to cash out and leave the market, and the Shanghai index closed at a new low for the year.
The agency further analyzed that the current market is in the stage of concentrated risk release. Whether the market can stop falling and stabilize in the future and return to the upward trend still needs strong support from the policy side and the continuous entry of long funds outside the market. It is expected that the Shanghai stock index is more likely to continue to explore and seek support in the short term, and the gem is more likely to fluctuate in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that the main reasons for the sharp decline of the market include: ① the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is coming, the expectation of monetary tightening is continuously strengthened, and the sharp correction of US stocks restricts the external risk appetite of a shares. Powell publicly stated at the international monetary fund that a 50 basis point interest rate increase would be discussed at the interest rate meeting in May. On Friday, the three major indexes of US stocks made a sharp correction, with a decline of more than 2.5%. The continuous adjustment of US stocks inhibited the formation of a shares.
② the epidemic situation in Beijing began to be severe, and the control in many places was upgraded. In addition, some urban areas such as Anhui, Liaoning and Henan implement static management. Starting from Shanghai, epidemic concerns are also constantly curbing A-share sentiment.
③ the market is more worried about the future economic prospects. At a time when the economic data in the first quarter is weak and the current policy has not been made strong enough, the market is skeptical and worried about whether the annual economic growth target will continue to be adhered to.
④ negative news of some representative stocks increased, and investors’ performance expectations were revised down. Including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) delaying the release of the first quarter performance announcement, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) both revenue and net profit fell in the first quarter, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) management facing adjustment, etc.
This makes investors generally revise and worry about the performance expectations of some sectors, including new energy, medicine and other sectors, and track stocks are facing a significant adjustment.
⑤ the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate rapidly, and the fear of capital outflow increased. Under the triple concerns of dislocation of internal and external monetary policies, comparison of economic situation and weakening of exports, the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate recently, depreciating by more than 1300 basis points in a week from April 18 to April 22, and the fear of capital outflow has gradually increased.
The agency also pointed out that the trend of A-Shares remained in the doldrums, and today the Shanghai index fell below the 3000 point mark, resulting in an emotional sell-off in the market. Paying attention to the tone of the upcoming important internal and external meetings is expected to alleviate the internal and external core concerns of the market and may become an opportunity to drive the market to usher in an oversold rebound.
In addition, Bohai Securities believes that short-term A shares will still face risks such as the epidemic, the final stage of performance release and the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike boots, and the negative factors remain to be cleared. However, judging from the current risk premium, the risk return of the Shanghai index exceeding the risk-free return has reached 6.0%, close to the historical extreme level since 2015. The extremely high risk return means that once the future economic expectation stabilizes, the potential return of the market is high. It is suggested that investors actively prepare the midline layout process, and look for sectors with medium and long-term allocation value in combination with the first quarterly report and future performance expectations.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the current focus is on three directions: 1) in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as the industrial chain related to the stable demand of traditional infrastructure and real estate (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.); 2) For the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many early adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
