Another day of numbness.
Today, a shares, funds and the market fell together on the hot search.
Today, major stock indexes fell sharply, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 292851 points, down 5.13%; The Shenzhen composite index closed at 1037928 points, down 6.08%; The gem index closed at 216000, down 5.56%. The net outflow of funds from Beishang was 4.4 billion yuan.
In terms of industries, all shenwanyi industries fell, led by non-ferrous metals, national defense and military industry and electronics, while non bank finance, building decoration and household appliances performed relatively well.
On the one hand, the Shanghai index fell 3000 points, setting a new low since July 2020. On the other hand, the fund’s haircut microblog publicly shouted that it was obviously inappropriate to say “this position should not continue to be pessimistic” in today’s market. The correct expression of my thoughts at the moment should be “extraordinary optimism”!
So, when will this wave of decline end? Is the follow-up market worth looking forward to? The reporter of China Fund News urgently interviewed nearly 30 fund companies, including Fuguo, Boshi, Central Europe, Nanfang, Dacheng, Huabao, Cathay Pacific, Qianhai Kaiyuan, GF, ABC Huili, YONGYING, HSBC Jinxin, Shanghai Investment Morgan, CITIC Prudential, Guohai Franklin, Haifutong, Nord, Puyin AXA, Societe Generale, SDIC UBS, shenwanlingxin, Huatai Bairui, xingyin, Jinying, Guojin, Debang and CAITONG.
These fund companies have said that the market is still dominated by bottoming in the short term, but the valuation of A-Shares has fallen to the bottom range, and the medium and long-term allocation value is prominent, so there is no need to be too pessimistic.
multiple negative factors led to the market losing 3000 points
For the reasons for today’s sharp decline, many fund companies attributed it to factors such as the impact of RMB devaluation on the stock market, the unabated inflationary pressure, the contraction of liquidity caused by the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the repeated epidemic in China.
Boshi Fund believes that today’s A-Shares fell again mainly for the following reasons: first, affected by the Fed’s expectation of increasing interest rate hike, US stocks fell sharply last Friday, and the depressed mood spread to a shares; Secondly, the epidemic rebounded in many places across the country, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, which lasted for a long time, suppressed production, logistics and consumption, worried about the repair of the economy, and further reduced risk appetite.
Wells Fargo Fund said that the sharp decline was mainly due to the increased downward pressure on China’s economy, combined with factors such as the Fed’s interest rate hike, international conflict and the impact of the epidemic, which magnified the short-term pessimism. However, since April 15, the adjustment of A-share market has also been affected by the short-term rapid correction of RMB exchange rate. In the past two years, due to the strong performance of China’s exports, rich US dollar liquidity has been accumulated, and the strong demand for foreign exchange settlement and sales has led to the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar since the second half of 2021. In the first quarter of 2021, the downward pressure on China’s economy has increased, and the US economy continues to be in the stage of monetary and fiscal stimulus and expansion, which is a core source of the correction of the RMB short-term exchange rate.
China Europe Fund believes that the changes in China’s exchange rate and epidemic situation, International Geopolitics and personnel changes in some financial institutions have further exacerbated the market pessimism. However, while China’s epidemic prevention and control has achieved phased results, the resumption of production and work is also being promoted in an all-round way. The market’s concern about the epidemic is more reflected in the spread of sentiment. The decline of market trading heat also brings fluctuations in capital, which makes the market insensitive to marginal changes in fundamentals in the short term. In the process of emotional catharsis, we should carefully deal with the disturbance caused by additional negative emotions;
China Southern Fund believes that the epidemic is still spreading all over the country, disrupting the rhythm of steady growth and intensifying concerns about the economic downturn. Previously, the state has issued some stable growth policies, but the epidemic has disrupted the rhythm of policy transmission, challenged the effect of stable growth, and increased the possibility of a second economic bottom. At the same time, the national standing committee, the central bank and other departmental meetings actively expressed their support for steady growth, but the strength of monetary policy was less than expected and failed to reverse the pessimistic expectations of the market on the economy, which also led to the continuous correction of the beneficiary sectors of steady growth such as upstream resource products in the near future. Coupled with the continued rapid depreciation of the RMB, the market risk aversion increased.
Dacheng Fund believes that the specific reasons are as follows: (1) the depreciation of RMB affects the stock market. On the one hand, the devaluation of RMB reflects the weakness of China’s economy in April, which has an impact on market fundamentals; On the other hand, it leads to increased pressure on foreign capital outflow. (2) Internal factors have not been alleviated. China has experienced repeated epidemics, some cities have been closed to varying degrees, and social and economic activities have been severely restricted. The continuous shock and decline of the market recently also reflects investors’ pessimistic expectations for economic recovery. (3) Inflationary pressure remains unchanged. The international oil price caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains high, which forms imported inflation for China and further restricts the space of monetary policy. (4) The Fed’s interest rate hike led to a contraction in liquidity. Powell expressed support for raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May at the recent IMF meeting. As the interest rate gap between China and the United States continues to narrow, the possibility of China’s RRR and interest rate reduction is reduced, the intensity of RRR and interest rate reduction is facing adjustment, and the real estate sector continues to decline.
GF believes that today’s market decline is affected by three factors. First, the market is worried that China’s industrial chain will be continuously disturbed by the epidemic, and there may be more uncertainty in economic performance; Secondly, overseas, in order to control inflation, the Fed has become more and more hawkish, exceeding market expectations. Affected by this, US stocks have made a significant adjustment, which has a negative impact on capital flows northward and China’s risk appetite; In addition, the first quarter performance of some top listed companies was lower than expected, and the delayed release of some companies also worried the market, driving the index down.
Cathay Pacific Fund said that there are many reasons for today’s market adjustment: 1) in terms of the epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still severe, there are signs of epidemic spread in Beijing, and the continuous spread of the epidemic in China may have a great impact on economic growth. 2) In terms of economic growth, the GDP growth of Shanghai and Guangdong in the first quarter was about 3%, which triggered pessimistic concerns about the annual economic growth. 3) In the market, a power battery leader delayed the disclosure of the first quarterly report, which caused the market to worry that the profit growth of the whole industrial chain was lower than expected. Superimposed on the lower than expected performance of the first quarterly report of the photovoltaic leader last week, the sector fell sharply, and the market was pessimistic about the first quarterly report as a whole. 4) Overseas, with the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve approaching in May, non US currencies are under pressure, which leads to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the accelerated outflow of foreign capital. Under the influence of the above factors, the continuous decline of the market caused liquidity concerns, including the pressure of product redemption and closing positions, which brought negative feedback on the stock price.
Qianhai open source Fund said that the current A-share adjustment comes from the joint force of making up for the decline in China’s epidemic that continues to exceed expectations and the tightening of overseas Federal Reserve. 1) Previously, the market has always regarded the rebound of China’s epidemic as a relatively short-term disturbance. However, recently, the epidemic situation in China has begun to show a multi-point outbreak and spread trend, aggravating the market’s concerns about the strengthening of epidemic control, enterprise shutdown and supply chain congestion. 2) The epidemic has increased the pressure of economic downturn and deterioration of enterprise fundamentals, and the first quarterly report has failed in a large area. 3) Overseas US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced the table, continued to converge liquidity, exacerbated global market volatility and foreign capital outflow pressure, and also dragged down China’s risk appetite.
YONGYING Fund believes that the repeated superposition of epidemics in many places in China, the lack of effective policies, and the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate suppress the equity market. 1) On Friday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve publicly paid tribute to Volcker, the anti inflation hero of the last century, and continued to release the hawkish attitude to the world. The expectation of interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve continued to rise, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US stock market adjusted significantly. It is necessary to wait until the trend of Q2 inflation data decreases before we can see the easing of external liquidity pressure.
2) In China, at present, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has not seen significant improvement, and the resumption of real economy in the Yangtze River Delta is less than expected. Recently, with the rise of the epidemic in Beijing and other places, the uncertainty of construction in the future has increased significantly, which may further impact the supply chain, superimpose the high prices in the upstream, and the prosperity of the middle and downstream is facing the risk of further decline. 3) External liquidity and industrial contradictions suppressed the valuation of the growth sector. The Chinese epidemic repeatedly led to the downward revision of growth profit expectations, and the relevant sectors of consumption and steady growth also made up for the decline.
Hu Yaowen, fund manager of the public equity investment department of Haifutong fund, said that the main reasons are as follows: 1) the market is worried about the downward pressure on the economy. The epidemic situation in Shanghai and some other regions continues, the prevention and control policies remain relatively strict, the logistics and production are restricted, and some industries are substantially affected by the epidemic at both ends of supply and demand. The local outbreak in Beijing over the weekend made the market worried that more cities would join the closure and control of the epidemic, and the market was more worried about the follow-up economic repair. 2) The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates by 50bp in May is heating up, and the tightening of liquidity puts pressure on the market. At present, China’s monetary policy deviates from overseas, and the Fed’s interest rate hike may restrict China’s policy space to a certain extent. 3) Overseas uncertainty still exists. OPEC + production increase expectation led to a sharp drop in the price of crude oil in the night trading, which was superimposed with concerns about China’s economic growth, triggering a decline in the cyclical sector.
Wu Xian, manager of Guohai Franklin fund, believes that the main reasons for the large decline today include: the repeated epidemic in China, the continuous epidemic in Shanghai, the outbreak in Beijing and other places, and increased concerns about the negative impact on economic life. In the first quarterly report, the performance of some leading companies is not ideal, and we are worried about the performance of some listed companies. Superimposed on the rapid depreciation of RMB, the recent instability of peripheral markets, the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve towards tightening liquidity, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is still no improvement. Recently, the market sentiment is relatively low, and the market volatility is easy to increase. On the whole, the stock market valuation has been at a low level, and various negative effects and news have been reflected by the market. We are no longer pessimistic. We look forward to the policy overweight and the improvement of the epidemic situation to help the market.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord, said that today’s sharp decline was mainly due to the continuation of concerns about the epidemic. The expectation of the secondary market is usually linear extrapolation. With the spread of Omicron, investors will worry that the virus will spread to a wider region in the future and may have a greater impact on the economy. Beijing has intervened in the early stage of the epidemic discovery, and its diffusion degree is likely to be much less than that of Shanghai. Similar to that in 2020, with the peak of infection data, the economy is gradually unsealed, and the stock market is expected to stabilize simultaneously. At this stage, investors are advised to be patient and optimistic.
AXA Pudong Bank Fund said that China’s epidemic continued to ferment and the market’s expectation of further easing policy narrowed; Overseas, the US dollar index rebounded, US bond yields continued to rise, inflation remained high, market expectations of the Fed’s accelerated rate hike warmed up again, funds poured into the US dollar to avoid risks, and global stock markets such as Europe, Japan and the United States fell sharply. Therefore, the market is still suppressed in the short term and remains weak in the current range.
short term or still dominated by bottom construction
a-share valuation has fallen to the bottom range, highlighting the medium and long-term allocation value
For the future, many fund companies believe that the market is still dominated by bottoming in the short term, but the valuation of A-Shares has fallen to the bottom range, the economic adverse factors are expected to ease soon, and the prospect of A-Shares is good in the long term.
Wells Fargo Fund said that the current median A-share valuation is in the bottom range of five rounds in history. After the “grinding bottom” from “policy bottom” to “growth bottom”, it is expected to enter the medium and long-term investment range of “light clouds and light winds”. From a fundamental point of view, credit expansion continues to intensify, credit growth has improved significantly year-on-year, M1 has been repaired upward after January, and the inflection point of the short-term epidemic is also expected to appear.
China Europe Fund believes that the current market has fully priced the impact of the epidemic after continuous decline. On the premise of the subsequent Non-Proliferation of geopolitical conflicts and other factors, and considering the verification of the wide credit policy by social finance and other data in March, the second quarter is expected to usher in a style inflection point in the process of market stabilization. It is expected that the performance of value stocks will still be an opportunity before the reversal of fundamental leading indicators, and the rise of overseas interest rates will also help to increase the relative income of value stocks. Then, with the stabilization of the economy and the continuous implementation of industrial policies, it is expected to gradually start to pay more attention to growth stocks in the middle and later part of the second quarter.
Boshi Fund believes that in the short term, investors’ sentiment will still be suppressed by these factors. In the absence of effective incremental funds, the upward motivation of A-Shares is insufficient and will continue to shock and find the bottom. At present, the overall reduction of reserve requirements has released about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, and the funds are relatively abundant as a whole; At the policy level, the determination and intention of macro policy to serve “steady growth” remain unchanged under the background of intensive voice of multiple ministries and commissions to boost market confidence. After the early correction, in the medium and long term, the opportunities of A-Shares will be greater than the risks, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future performance. After the early correction, the medium and long-term configuration value of some industries is further revealed, which can be paid appropriate attention, such as the upstream sector of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, etc.
China Southern Fund believes that looking forward to the future, considering the depreciation of RMB and the epidemic in China, it is expected that the short-term market will still be dominated by bottoming, and the core of the contradiction lies in China’s economic expectations. At present, the epidemic situation in some areas shows signs of improvement, and the balance between epidemic prevention and control and resumption of production and work is being explored. The orderly promotion of resumption of production and work will create favorable conditions for the commencement of infrastructure projects and the recovery of consumption. When the epidemic situation improves significantly, the market’s expectation of investment and economy will be repaired. In addition, the current A-share valuation has fallen to a low level, highlighting the medium and long-term allocation value.
Huabao Fund said that market confidence may continue to be disturbed in the short term, but as long as the combination of weak economy and policy does not reverse, the pricing logic of strong expectation and weak reality will continue. The undervalued value represented by steady growth will continue to lead the market, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal sector of relatively undervalued value + low positions. Looking forward to the medium term, if the path of risk preference improvement such as endogenous credit expansion, the shift of global interest rate environment or the turnaround of epidemic situation and control policies is realized, we can pay attention to the strategic allocation opportunities of consumer stocks according to the law of transmission from the bottom of credit to the bottom of economy, especially the possibility that core consumer companies will rush ahead.
Sun haozhong of CITIC Prudential Fund believes that from the perspective of the market, after the early market adjustment, the current valuation level of A-Shares has been very attractive. We have observed several major indexes, such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. At present, the valuation has been near double the standard deviation in the past five years, while the CSI 500 represented by small and medium-sized cap and growth style, Its valuation has been below double the standard deviation in the past five years. Of course, the valuation differences and differentiation between different industries and sectors are still significant. For example, electronics, new energy and other industries have been close to the lowest level in the past decade and are basically at the level of 2018. He believes that A-Shares are at the bottom of the medium-term shock trend. Globally, the maturity and policy stability of the A-share market and the prospect of economic growth are still highly attractive. Therefore, we are optimistic about the medium and long term of A-share.
YONGYING Fund said that the short-term index shock consolidation, waiting for positive factors to appear. In terms of policy response, after the RRR reduction is implemented, in addition to the statement of the CSRC to protect the capital market, the policy toolbox may be difficult to deal with the economic pressure caused by epidemic prevention, and more effective policies are expected to be implemented in the future. Until these core contradictions affecting the market are resolved, the market may still maintain the bottom shock pattern. In the medium term, after the second quarter, the market may return to the upward channel after the full release of overseas risks and the gradual implementation of Chinese policies to form a joint force of economic support.
Hu Yaowen, the fund manager of the public equity investment department of Haifutong fund, believes that from the medium and long-term perspective, the current market valuation is close to the level at the end of 2018. The return of valuation contains investment opportunities. In the face of market fluctuations, we should base ourselves on the long-term and calmly deal with it. At this stage, the market is at the bottom stage, and the opportunities of the market are greater than the risks from the medium and long-term perspective. In terms of investment strategy, in the short term, we can focus on the relevant sectors of undervalued value, high dividend and dilemma reversal.
Dacheng Fund believes that the current market sentiment is generally depressed, and it is expected that there will be repeated shocks in April. It is suggested that investors continue to wait for the implementation of the steady growth policy. The second half of the year is expected to usher in economic recovery and market rebound.
AXA Puyin Fund said that the A-share market is still waiting for the bottom. When there are inflection points in the epidemic and signals such as factory resumption, there will be a stabilization and rebound in the short term; Overseas, we need to observe the rhythm of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and how the global financial markets interpret it. In the future, we believe that the main lines of steady growth such as infrastructure, real estate and consumption are expected to recover simultaneously with the weakening impact of the epidemic. In the boom track, the photovoltaic sector deserves special attention, and the module sub sector has comparative advantages. The current A-share valuation is at the bottom of the market, and the medium and long-term investment value has emerged.
Cathay Pacific Fund believes that there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market and need to “look for light in the dark”. First, the current position is low enough and the downward space is limited. The absolute position is low enough to attract long-term capital inflow and allocation after the liquidity crisis is alleviated. Second, there is a high probability that the bottom of A-share earnings will appear in the second quarter, and the market will gradually repair with the recovery of earnings. Third, overseas pressure is expected to peak in the second quarter and is expected to improve later. The global inflationary pressure in the second quarter and the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve may be the strongest time period. It is expected to gradually ease in the second half of the year. At that time, with the improvement of the epidemic in China, monetary policy is expected to be further relaxed. To sum up, we believe that the current market is already at the bottom. Although there may be repeated in the short term, the opportunities gradually outweigh the risks in the medium and long term.
Morgan Fund believes that from the historical data of stock bond risk premium in the past, the current stock market has reached a relatively low level in recent ten years. Looking forward to the future, the time for the market to grind the bottom may be longer than expected, but historical experience shows that once the risk sentiment is repaired, there will often be a certain rebound opportunity. There are many targets that have been wrongly killed due to sentiment in the general decline, or they can recover first; In addition, in the face of internal and external economic challenges, it is expected that more powerful policies will be introduced in the follow-up, which will also be helpful to boost market confidence.
Societe Generale Fund believes that at the current time point and position, there is relatively limited room for further decline in the market. The recent adjustment speed and range of the market are extreme, and this extreme decline undoubtedly provides a better layout opportunity for long-term optimistic investors. At present, what the market most expects is that China’s epidemic prevention policy and economic policy will adjust towards the field of stable growth and promoting development. As for the tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, we believe that the hawks in the market are expected to ease significantly after the two interest rate meetings in May and June. We judge that the most adverse environment at the macro level has a high probability. It is expected that after the turnaround, the market is expected to gradually usher in correction.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that it is still at the end of the grinding period, and the market has not seen great opportunities in the short term. The introduction of strong economic stimulus policies must be based on the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of the supply chain. Therefore, in the current situation of repeated epidemics across the country and the continuous rise of US bond yields, there will be no particularly strong stimulus policy for the time being. The next month will be a key observation period, paying special attention to factors such as changes in the epidemic situation, progress in resumption of work, global inflation and so on. From the perspective of stock selection, we are more willing to pay attention to bottom-up stock selection and strive to make layout in companies that have been fully adjusted and have relatively high performance stability and relatively predictable performance.
ABC Huili Fund said that looking forward to the future, the pessimistic expectations of overseas central banks tightening, China’s epidemic and economy are further fermenting in the short-term market. In the medium and long term, the A-share market is close to the bottom of history. With the emergence of the inflection point of China’s epidemic and the further introduction of stable growth policies, market sentiment is expected to boost and drive the index to stabilize and repair. In addition, despite the constraints of the overseas interest rate increase cycle and the rising pressure of inflation, the actual landing rhythm of China’s steady growth is lower than expected, but the goal and strength of the overall policy are still worth looking forward to. The Politburo meeting in April will be an important policy observation window.
Shen Chao, macro strategist of HSBC Jinxin fund, said that the short-term negative factors such as the epidemic will eventually pass, and the performance and valuation will eventually be repaired. The short-term disturbance is difficult to affect the long-term investment value of the industry and the company. At present, the risk premium of the market has been at a historically high level. The superposition of trading sentiment and other indicators reflects that the market may have been overly pessimistic and has relatively high investment value. At the same time, the long-term development space and growth of the growth sector represented by new energy, semiconductor and medicine have not changed, and after adjustment, both valuation and investment value are highly attractive. At the same time, the short-term factors perplexing the market and industry, such as rising costs, are also expected to be alleviated in the second quarter or the second half of the year. Therefore, while preventing the risk of short-term fluctuations, investors can also gradually pay attention to the long-term opportunities brought by market overshoot.
Qianhai open source Fund said that looking back, the market probability will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the second quarter under the covid-19 epidemic, the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction table, the rise of US bond interest rate, the fluctuation of US stocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other internal and external uncertainties. However, as the market continues to go deep into the bottom, the follow-up will shift from more systematic adjustment to structural differentiation.
GF said that the current investor sentiment is in a relatively pessimistic state. According to the model estimation, the performance of the Shanghai stock index in the current position has actually included quite pessimistic expectations, so it is expected to be not far from the bottom in the medium term. In the follow-up, we still need to further observe the trend of the epidemic and the progress of returning to work and childbirth. Considering that the risk factors at home and abroad may be difficult to clear quickly and completely in the future, it is expected that the market will have a bottoming process, and the investment needs more patience.
SDIC UBS Fund said that although there may still be room for downward exploration in the stock market in the short term, the opportunities in the A-share market outweigh the risks from the current position. The support from liquidity and the drive of steady growth policy will provide effective support for the rebound of the equity market.
Shenwanlingxin Fund said that the market is in the shock stage, and the opportunity of A-share market may be greater than the risk according to the current position. At the valuation level, the all-a valuation has fallen to a low level, and the valuation cost performance is prominent. In terms of subdivided industries, most growth segments have fallen back to the level of 1x or even 0.5xpeg, and some sectors in the main styles are below the 15% quantile of valuation. There is no need to worry too much about the future market. In the medium term, with the gradual expansion of credit, the shift of the global interest rate environment and the control of the epidemic situation, the market risk appetite may gradually improve. The market is in the shock stage, and the high-quality growth value may have appeared.
Wu Qiran, a macro strategy researcher at xingyin fund, said that looking back, in the second quarter, under the internal and external uncertainties such as the covid-19 epidemic, the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction, the rise of US bond interest rates, US stock fluctuations and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market probability will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. However, as the market continues to go deep into the bottom, the follow-up will shift from more systematic adjustment to structural differentiation.
The National Monetary Fund said that the current period is still the bottom grinding period, and the next month is the key observation period, paying special attention to the changes of the epidemic, global inflation and the statement of the Politburo meeting. At present, the fundamental impact is obvious, the market confidence is frustrated, and the situation of three killing of stocks, foreign exchange and business is presented. Looking forward to the future, the bottom probability of fundamentals will appear in the second quarter, and the bottom of the market may also appear in the second quarter. There are great opportunities after the great crisis. At present, we should be patient and wait for changes in light positions.
CAITONG Fund believes that the current market valuation adjustment has been at a historically low level. From the price comparison relationship between stocks and bonds, the difference between the current implied yield of A-Shares and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has also reached a new high since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that the investment value of equity assets is prominent.
With the promotion of epidemic prevention and control policies and the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike boots in May, the market may usher in a rebound window in the future.
steady growth is the main line, focusing on defensive varieties in the short term
medium and long term optimistic about growth and dilemma reversal
In terms of sectors, China Europe Fund believes that in the short term, defensive is still more important. It is suggested to pay attention to the benefit stimulus policies, infrastructure industry chains and real estate industries with advantages such as valuation and dividend yield. In the medium term, we can continue to focus on new infrastructure areas with high growth and high certainty, especially energy infrastructure, green power and digital infrastructure. At the same time, it is suggested to continue to pay more attention to the main line of oversold growth. Based on the judgment that it often takes a long time to stabilize the market oscillation, the configurable window period of the above industries is still long, so there is no need to rush to “rebound”.
Huabao Fund said that the short-term market has entered the bottom grinding period. On the premise of reasonable valuation, it will lay out industries with better or improved performance and grasp the investment direction with high winning rate: (1) increase the expectation of steady growth: leading real estate and high-quality regional banks with improved expectation on the supply side; (2) Inflation chain: copper, gold, aluminum, coal, oil, oil transportation and agriculture; (3) Consumption recovery from the improvement of the epidemic: express delivery, medicine, food processing, beer, etc. High boom industries and boom repair industries with reasonable layout and valuation in the medium-term dimension: (1) high boom tracks such as new energy; (2) New infrastructure: digital economy.
China Southern Fund believes that in terms of industry allocation, steady growth is the core idea, and the demand brought by the acceleration of infrastructure investment is the most determined direction of the year. It is recommended to choose the sectors benefiting from the acceleration of new construction, such as cement, industrial metals, steel, etc. Taking into account the changes in the policies of the real estate industry, we can pay attention to the household and consumer building materials in the reversal of difficulties. Global inflation is high. CPI may rise moderately in the second and third quarters of this year. Pig prices are expected to pick up after the industry’s production capacity is cleared. It is suggested to pay attention to the pig breeding sector.
Sun haozhong of CITIC Prudential Fund believes that from the perspective of subdivided investment opportunities, it is still optimistic about undervalued and high dividend sectors in the medium and short term, such as banks, coal and real estate. In the medium and long term, China’s growth sector is optimistic. Growth opportunities are expected to occur soon, because the top note is already large enough, valuations are cheap enough, and the unfavorable external factors are expected to ease soon.
In the follow-up sector, the fund manager said that the fund may rebound. In the early stage, the sectors that are suppressed by the epidemic may have excess returns. For example, with the unsealing of logistics control, the transportation sector may have a relatively large reversal. With the recovery of business, retail, tourism, hotels, aviation and other sectors are also expected to usher in a greater recovery. Alternative consumer goods such as Baijiu, household appliances, consumer building materials and so on all depend on normal economic activities. At present, they are in a state of overfall. There is also a systematic recovery of follow-up. There is also a steady growth measure mentioned by management. In the follow-up, with the implementation of more policies, we believe that the construction, building materials and other sectors with partial periodicity are also expected to benefit.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that it is still expected to be partial to value in the first half of the year. In the short term, the market may focus on the inflection point of the epidemic (especially the easing of the impact of the supply chain) and the first quarterly report. However, it is expected that the combination of weak economy and strong policy will not change. The main line still focuses on the infrastructure, real estate and to G industrial chain layout that focuses on steady growth. The assets with low value and high dividend will still have high cost performance. The overseas headwind liquidity environment is also not conducive to the valuation of growth stocks. Gradually pay attention to the allocation opportunities of core consumer companies.
ABC Huili Fund said that from the perspective of market style, the style is expected to return to equilibrium after market adjustment. It is suggested to make balanced allocation from the two dimensions of steady growth and high prosperity, pay attention to the repair of high-end manufacturing industry and offline economy after the epidemic, moderately increase the allocation of inflation beneficiary industries to hedge the medium-term inflation risk.
Huatai Bairui Fund said that in the short term, the spread of the epidemic and the fear of RMB devaluation have become the main pressure on the short-term market. In addition, the Political Bureau meeting in April is approaching to observe the policy setting. Under the background of RMB devaluation, China’s assets are under pressure, and bulk commodities continue to fluctuate at a high level. In order to curb high inflation, the Federal Reserve has a clear tightening direction, which is good for precious metals, agriculture, building materials and other directions. In the medium term, China’s advanced manufacturing industry chain will continue to improve, forming China’s comparative advantage and global competitiveness. In the short term, we will wait for the meeting to set the tone. We will dig deep into prosperous industries in the direction of policy support and continue to layout high-quality companies with better than expected potential.
Wu Hao, the fund manager of deppon fund, said that after the recent shock adjustment, some high-quality stocks in the market also have cheaper “prices”. At present, it is more important to take a positive attitude to explore promising industries and excellent companies in the future, and constantly buy and firmly hold them at lower prices. As the world’s largest developing country, many industries in China are in rapid development, and some industries have been at the forefront of the world. For example, science and technology and innovative growth companies in new energy and biotechnology sectors are still worthy of attention in the long run.
Golden Eagle Fund said that in terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of “steady growth + underestimated technology + mass consumption”. In the follow-up, after the epidemic and the easing of peripheral economic pressure, the steady growth policy will still work. In addition to real estate and banks, the main line of steady growth can gradually pay attention to the post cycle varieties of the real estate chain. At the same time, we can pay attention to the high-quality varieties in the science and technology sector with strong cost performance measured from the perspective of PEG from the bottom to the left. In addition, with the gradual control and improvement of this round of epidemic, the main line of post epidemic recovery previously suppressed by demand, as well as mass consumer goods with stable profit growth and inflation transmission during the economic downturn, also deserve continued attention.
Wu Qiran, a macro strategy researcher of xingyin fund, said that in terms of industry allocation, considering the current interest rate increase environment, investors’ risk appetite has decreased significantly, and their preference for profit duration has switched from the long-term growth of the enterprise to the stability or certainty of the current performance of the enterprise. We are optimistic about two main lines: 1. The main line of steady growth: real estate, banking and construction; 2. Upstream cyclical industries: coal, petroleum exploitation, chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
