Key points of the report
① the recovery of internal and external factors has encountered twists and turns, and the reconstruction of the valuation system is slow. From the perspective of prudence, if there is a greater impact of uncertainty, the three types of companies need to pay attention to it. ② Perspective 1: risk of killing performance: the reflexivity of performance disclosure of some companies in the bear market. The company has better performance adjustment space and chooses to smooth profit disclosure. If the seller’s performance forecast is not lowered, the impact of killing performance will be greater. From the perspective of income (contract liabilities) and expenses (R & D expenses and management expenses), companies with optimistic performance expectations that may have performance killing risks are concentrated in computers, electronics, machinery, power equipment, medicine and real estate. From the perspective of contract liabilities, there are 16 companies, 17 R & D expenses and 18 management expenses. ③ Perspective 2: the impact of the epidemic on fundamental risks. The companies whose sales, production and investment may be impacted by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta are concentrated in automobiles, machinery and electrical equipment; From the perspective of export, the slowdown of customs clearance in Shanghai port may impact the order delivery and revenue recognition, and the companies are concentrated in electronics, automobile, medicine and other industries. From the perspective of sales, there are 20 companies, 21 manufacturers, 20 investors and 25 exporters. ④ Perspective 3: the risk of public offering group shares covering the decline. In the first half of the bear market in 2015 and 2018, the group shares raised and increased by public offering usually fell deeper in the later stage of the bear market. We screened the 20 heavyweight shares raised and increased by public offering in 2022q1, mainly focusing on power equipment, medicine and agriculture.
Text summary
Perspective 1: kill performance risk. ① The reflexivity of performance disclosure of some companies in the bear market. Due to the setback of the financing function of the stock market, the good performance can not support the stock price, so the smooth profit disclosure is selected, and the performance is “Thunderstorm”. For example, in 2018q4, many companies made substantial provision for goodwill, resulting in a sharp drop in the non-financial net profit of all a from 6.9% in 2018q3 to – 71% in 2018q4. ② The company has better performance adjustment space, and the seller’s performance forecast has not been lowered, which has a greater impact on the performance. The company may use tools such as deferred revenue recognition and expense accrual to cause the company’s statement data to be weaker than the market expectation, especially the seller’s performance expectation is not revised in advance, and the impact after the “Thunderstorm” is greater. We screen the companies whose recent performance forecast has not been lowered (consistent with wind’s expectation), and screen the companies that may have performance risk under optimistic performance expectations from the perspective of income (contract liabilities) and expenses (R & D expenses and management expenses). At present, it is concentrated in the computer, mechanical equipment and pharmaceutical industries.
Perspective 2: the impact of the epidemic on fundamental risks. ① Our earlier report, “who is the most nervous when the epidemic strikes the supply chain?” Companies whose fundamentals are more seriously impacted by the epidemic are screened from the perspectives of sales, production and investment, focusing on the automobile, machinery and electrical equipment industries. ② Supplementary export enterprises, due to the slowdown of customs clearance in Shanghai port, may have an impact on order delivery and revenue recognition in the first half of the year, focusing on Electronics (mainly semiconductors), automobile, medicine and other industries.
Perspective 3: the risk of public offering group shares covering the decline. ① In the first half of the bear market, the public offering of heavily held stocks usually fell deeper in the later stage of the bear market. Typical examples are the second half of 2018 and 2015 bear markets. In 2018, due to Sino US trade frictions and deleveraging, A-Shares entered a unilateral bear market. Q1-q3 public offerings increased positions in Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . The same situation also existed in the bear market in 2015. In the late bear market (2015 / 122016 / 1), the top 20 heavyweight stocks raised by the public in 2015q2-q4 decreased by a median of – 33.3%, which was also deeper than the full a median of – 31.7%. ② 2022q1 public offering significantly increased holdings of heavy positions, including meituan, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , etc.
Note: This article refers to 2022 this year and 2021 last year.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected;
Historical experience does not represent the future; This paper only makes deduction on the basis of assumptions, and relevant companies do not take any investment suggestions.
