Macroeconomic operation in the first quarter: the impact of the epidemic, weakening supply and demand, and increasing downward pressure on the economy
GDP: the impact of the epidemic has increased the pressure on economic operation, and GDP growth has slowed down. In the first quarter, under the impact of the epidemic, the economic recovery weakened, and the GDP growth rate was 4.8%, which was lower than the two-year compound growth rate in the same period last year and the two-year compound growth rate in the whole year. The primary and secondary industries increased by 6% and 5.8% respectively year-on-year, and the tertiary industry most affected by the epidemic increased by only 4% year-on-year. The growth contribution rates of final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net exports of goods and services were 69.4%, 26.9% and 3.7%, and the contribution rate of exports to economic growth decreased significantly.
Production: the epidemic affected the marginal slowdown of industrial production and repair, and the service industry continued to be depressed. Under the impact of the multi-point outbreak of the epidemic, the scope of shutdown expanded, and the margin of industrial production weakened in the first quarter. The production of service industry remained sluggish, with negative growth in March.
Demand: the epidemic has interrupted the repair momentum of domestic demand, weakened the substitution effect and slowed down the growth of external demand. The investment in infrastructure and high and new technology supported by policies increased rapidly, and the real estate investment continued to be depressed under the weakening of supply and demand. In addition, the impact of price on investment may increase. Consumption slowed under the impact of the epidemic, and the social zero showed negative growth again in March. The repair of overseas production led to the weakening of China's export substitution effect and the slowdown of export growth.
Price: CPI fluctuates steadily, multiple factors interact, and PPI is differentiated year-on-year and month on month. In the first quarter, due to the fluctuation of supply-demand relationship, CPI price first stabilized and then increased, but it is still at a low level; Under the influence of many factors, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI continued to decline, but increased month on month.
Finance and exchange rate: the real financing demand is weakened, the new social finance is large, the structure is weak, and the RMB appreciates slightly. The new social finance in the first quarter was 1.77 trillion yuan more than that in the same period of last year, but the change of new RMB loan structure may indicate that the market financing demand is weak. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the reduction of capital risk appetite and the maintenance of a high level of export growth, which led to the continuation of the previous trend of continuous appreciation of the RMB.
Economic operation pressure: the risks and challenges in the process of economic repair are further increased
The epidemic has many spreading points, a wide range and frequent occurrence, and the impact of limited regional economic activities may appear in the second quarter. The outbreak of the epidemic will have a certain impact on the regional economy. On the other hand, it may also aggravate the negative effect of "weakening expectation".
The endogenous growth momentum is insufficient and the downward pressure on the economy is great. Policy factors may bear more pressure in economic stabilization. The service industry on the production side and the consumption on the demand side are still weak, and the endogenous growth momentum is insufficient. Economic stabilization depends more on the implementation strength and effect of the steady growth policy.
The debt risk is still high, and the risk exposure in the real estate field may continue. In the first quarter, China's macro leverage ratio was still high. In addition, the new construction area of houses and the sales area of commercial houses decreased significantly month by month year on year, and the risks in the real estate field were not completely eliminated.
The potential inflationary pressure still exists, or forms a certain constraint on China's monetary policy. Global commodity prices fluctuate at a high level, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States hangs upside down again after 12 years, which may form a certain constraint on China's continued easing of monetary aggregate and the continued reduction of policy interest rates.
Economic operation environment outlook: the severity of the external environment has intensified, and the steady growth policy may continue to be strengthened
External environment: the "policy gap" of epidemic prevention and control outside China has expanded, and international geopolitical instability has increased. The accelerated normalization of overseas economic activities may bring downward pressure on China's export growth. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has raised geopolitical instability.
Policy environment: the steady growth policy may continue to increase, but it will still adhere to the bottom line of "risk prevention". The loose orientation of monetary policy will continue, and the structural function may be more prominent; Under the tight balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the expenditure is strengthened, but the innovation of policy tools is mainly used to avoid the accumulation of long-term risks.
Macroeconomic Outlook: there is still some pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5.5%. In an optimistic situation, we believe that we can achieve an annual growth rate of 5.5%, but the pressure to achieve it has increased.
Major asset allocation: the performance of various assets is highly differentiated, and the second quarter may be the window for medium and long-term allocation of stocks
In the first quarter, the performance of various assets was highly differentiated, and the order of asset income was commodities bonds stocks. Looking forward to the follow-up, after the epidemic slows down and the effect of the steady growth policy appears, the profit or margin of A-Shares will pick up, the stock market valuation will be at a low level, and the second quarter or long-term funds will be a more appropriate allocation window; The bond market may have a range shock trend, and the coupon strategy may still be dominant; The fluctuation risk of bulk commodities may increase, but some commodities may have short-term game opportunities.
