Key investment points:
The growth rate of the fiscal revenue side fell, and the expenditure side continued to accelerate
In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue increased by 8.6% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate in March fell to 3.4%. Factors such as the epidemic weakened the economic momentum and had an impact on fiscal revenue. The fiscal revenue growth rate is still lower this year due to the advance of the budget.
Among the tax revenue, China's value-added tax increased by 3.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly lower, which was related to the continuous implementation of the tax reduction and fee reduction policy and the retention and tax rebate; Affected by the downturn in real estate and automobile sales, the income from deed tax and vehicle purchase tax decreased by more than 20%. In the first quarter, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 8.3% year-on-year, continuing to rise by 1.3 percentage points, which was basically consistent with the growth rate of the annual budget expenditure. Among them, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure at the central level is relatively low, and the growth of local fiscal expenditure is relatively fast. As of mid April, the people's Bank of China had turned over 600 billion yuan of balance profits to leave room for fiscal expenditure. The growth rate of four expenditures related to infrastructure (energy conservation and environmental protection, urban and rural communities, agriculture, forestry, water and transportation) increased significantly compared with last year, but its proportion decreased.
The revenue and expenditure of government funds were significantly divided. The amount of special debt supported infrastructure investment. In the first quarter, the budget income of national government funds decreased by 25.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp decline in the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights caused by the downturn of the land market (the year-on-year growth rate of income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was - 27.4%).
The budget expenditure of national government funds increased by 43% year-on-year, and continued to rise sharply by 15.1 percentage points. The revenue side of government funds decreased significantly, while the expenditure side increased significantly, mainly due to the large issuance of new local government special bonds in the first quarter. In terms of budget completion progress, similar to the situation reflected by the growth rate, the national government fund revenue in the first quarter completed 14% of the budget, the lowest progress in recent years; The national government fund expenditure reached 17.8% of the budget, faster than the average progress in the same period in recent years. By the end of March, 1.25 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued, reaching 34.1% of the annual budget, the fastest progress in the same period in recent years. Among the purposes of issuing new special bonds, infrastructure related accounts for 65.8%. The issuance of special bonds played an important role in driving the rapid growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic or policy changes have exceeded expectations.
