Under the background of the epidemic, what is the main logic of the change and future interpretation of the inflation environment? Please pay attention to this article.
What is the inflation environment under the epidemic? The prices of some foods rose over the season, and the prices of some services rebounded significantly
Since March, the impact of the epidemic on production and transportation has led to tight supply and demand of vegetables, eggs and other food in some areas and over seasonal price increases. With the accelerated spread of the epidemic, some provinces and cities restricted the passage of vehicles and drivers and passengers, which had a significant impact on logistics. For example, since March, the national vehicle freight flow index has decreased by more than 12% year-on-year. Due to the blocked logistics and poor transportation, the supply and demand of some foods are tight, and the prices rise over seasonality. For example, the average selling price of vegetables monitored in 28 provinces and cities and eggs in 36 cities has increased by more than 14% year-on-year since March.
Under the static management of the whole area such as "city closure", the supply of catering and other service industries shrinks and costs rise, saving the pressure of price rise. Catering, wholesale and retail, logistics and other service industries are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals, which are highly dependent on cash flow, and their operation may be more difficult under the impact of the epidemic. Some large and medium-sized chain enterprises have even significantly reduced the number of stores. For example, the number of new and existing stores after the Haidilao epidemic is only about 60% of that before the epidemic. Supply contraction and rising costs have pushed up the pressure of price rise, which has been partially reflected. In March, CPI mail service items rebounded seasonally.
What are the similarities and differences between inflation under this round of epidemic and that before? The pig cycle is located in different positions, and the prices of commodities such as crude oil are different
Under the influence of the epidemic, periodic price increases of some food and service prices have also occurred. Looking back on history, during the epidemic in 2020, the supply and demand of meat and vegetables in some areas were tight, and the prices also rose significantly; The cash flow of catering, logistics and other service industries increased, and the superimposed cost increased, which once significantly increased the price. For example, from the beginning of the year to about one month after the Spring Festival, the price of vegetables increased by nearly 14% year-on-year, and the highway logistics freight rate index also rose periodically.
Unlike before, the biggest fluctuation item in CPI food items, pigs, are in different cycles, and the price trends of crude oil and other bulk commodities in non food items are different. During the epidemic in 2020, the pig cycle was in the first half and the pig price was still climbing to the top. At present, the pig price has continued to fall for nearly five quarters and the production capacity of fertile sows is in the stage of accelerated de industrialization. Meanwhile, during the epidemic in 2020, the prices of crude oil and other commodities once fell sharply and remained low for up to one year. At present, the prices of crude oil and other commodities are rising at a high level and reaching new highs repeatedly.
How will post epidemic inflation be interpreted? In the short term, it may still be disturbed by the epidemic, and pay attention to the potential inflation risk in the future
Taking history as a mirror, the repeated epidemic situation may interfere with logistics, or push up the price of fresh vegetables and other food, but it is more affected by short-term pulses. There is no need to worry about the periodic rise of food prices. With the recovery of logistics and transportation, the high price of fresh vegetables accelerated to return to the normal level. In addition to fresh vegetables, grain prices have also increased significantly since the end of 2021. CPI rose further month on month in March, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in normal years, similar to the second quarter of 2020. Considering that grain production is much higher than consumption, there is no need to worry about the price rise in the next stage of "self-sufficiency".
In the future, the concentrated release of potential inflation risks may move the rising range and rhythm of CPI forward. With the accelerated deregulation of pork production capacity and the seasonal recovery of demand, a new round of pig cycle may restart; Under the tight balance between supply and demand, crude oil and other bulk commodities remain high, or further accelerate the dominance of cost side pressure, which does not rule out the possibility of "lard resonance"; With the promotion of resumption of production and work and the gradual restoration of consumption scenes, some price pressure may be released faster. Overall, under the neutral scenario, the CPI inflation rate may reach 2.% in the middle of the year, There is a possibility of breaking 3% in the third quarter.
Risk tip: the supply of raw materials was less than expected, and the pig price rebounded sharply.
