Market Review
In the past five trading days (04180422), the CSI 300 fell 4.2% and the building materials (CITIC) index fell 7%, so all sub sectors fell, but the growth was stable last Friday, and the relevant sectors rebounded more. We believe that after the investment data in March were released, some early-stage capital profits were realized, which may be the reason for the adjustment of relevant sectors with stable growth in the near future. Among individual stocks, Hainan Development Holdings Nanhai Co.Ltd(002163) , Sf Diamond Co.Ltd(300179) , Zhejiang Youpon Integrated Ceiling Co.Ltd(002718) , Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) ranked first in terms of income.
Steady growth is still expected to be the main line of follow-up
Last week, the varieties of building materials with high relevance to steady growth were significantly adjusted. We think the possible reasons include: 1) the Bureau of statistics released the investment data of the first quarter last Monday. Before the data were released, the market generally expected poor economic data and high policy expectations for steady growth. After the data were released, the macro catalysis of short-term steady growth decreased and some capital profits were realized; 2) Under the joint action of the internal and external environment, the market is worried about the policy ranking of the annual GDP growth target. Last week, the LPR quotation was flat month on month, and there was no interest rate cut.
We believe that the steady growth in Q1 reflects the pattern of strong infrastructure and weak real estate, and real estate is still an important driving force in the subsequent steady growth. In Q1, the broad infrastructure investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the real estate investment increased by 0.7%. The recovery of infrastructure investment was obvious, but the real estate maintained the downward trend of growth rate, and the main real estate physical quantity indicators also maintained the downward trend of expansion. In the first 22 days of April, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 53.8% year-on-year, further expanding the decline compared with the previous April. The epidemic situation and policy effectiveness may be the main factors affecting real estate transactions. Compared with the infrastructure industry chain, real estate covers a wider range and has relatively little pressure on government expenditure. Historically, it has been a more important means of steady growth than infrastructure. We believe that the follow-up real estate policy is more likely to continue to pick up. As a leading indicator, after the real estate sales pick up, the building materials fundamentals of the real estate chain are expected to be repaired at the industry level.
Continue to be optimistic about stable growth and fundamental reversal, and recommend the consumption of building materials / pipelines / cement, etc
1) influenced by the prosperity of real estate, capital chain and cost pressure last year, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short; 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the warming of municipal pipe network investment, and the logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials;
3) cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of subsequent infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized; 4) At present, the market value of the leading glass enterprises is at a low level. At present, they are in the period of accelerated resumption of work in spring, and the glass price is expected to gradually rise. This year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance, the unit profit of float glass is expected to be relatively stable, photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens; 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
Key recommended combinations this week
\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 271 Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791)
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
