If you see that the fundamentals of an industry begin to “go well” and are reflected in the latest financial data, but the stock price begins to turn down, you don\’t have to be surprised, because it may be that the funds of “advanced layout” are making profits.
“To what extent has the market played? A lot of big funds are more and more distributed forward to prevent being smashed and set on the hills by others.” Yesterday, a piece about the “advanced layout” of the investment circle was widely circulated.
For example, pork prices have fallen all the way, and pork stocks have risen for several waves. In addition, the prices of many products have been rising, but stocks have been hammered all the way, such as lithium and rare earths, because they expect prices to fall sooner or later, whether one year or two years later.
a hunting for “certainty”
In a roadshow for investors, a post-85 fund manager walked back and forth in the room and eloquently recommended his promising industries and sectors. In the face of the carefully prepared PPT, he can only leave the fixed podium to disperse his thoughts.
Compared with the 10 billion star fund manager, although the management scale of the seemingly elegant Mesozoic fund manager is limited, he never shy away from being optimistic about some industries and racetracks in the roadshow, nor will he express any ambiguous views.
“We not only know Baijiu and white horse, but also a lot of energy, resources and direction in the dark horse and new track. They are not unexpected winner, but we see the way forward and forward. This is the biggest difference.” He said.
In his opinion, 2022 will be a reversal year for the consumer sector, which is expected to usher in a relatively considerable market, and the small and medium-sized market capitalization is expected to perform better. Among them, the biggest attack direction may come from the second and third tier small and medium-sized companies in the required consumption.
In a word, he hopes to provide investors with a more sharp offensive investment tool when consumption goes up. Which stocks are most worth looking forward to? He turned the PPT to the next page. The more than ten listed companies listed in this chart had a large decline in 2021, so there was a large room for rise.
Then, in the interaction with investors, an investor asked the fund manager’s views on a stock of “pork concept”. Although it is inconvenient for him to make too many statements about individual stocks, he is quite optimistic about the pork track.
“In the past year, the pig index fell from 29000 points to 13000 points, down more than 60%. Now is the darkest time for pork stocks. Next year, it is almost certain that pork stocks will usher in a double positive performance and valuation!” For example, he said.
In the view of the post-85 fund manager, most of the underlying valuations have returned to a good valuation level, so the layout can be started in advance. Among them, the required consumption is not affected by the macro-economy and is the direction of long-term stability. On the basis of price increase, there is expected to be a comprehensive performance explosion in 2022.
“Probabilistic thinking” is a key word that is very different from other fund managers. In his opinion, deterministic thinking represents a very in-depth study of stocks. After the study, heavy positions are bought and held for a long time, and there is basically no change of hands.
“advanced layout” is becoming more and more popular
From “Mao index” to “ningshidai”, in the face of continuous market adjustment at the beginning of 2022, the logic of fund managers also began to “change”, no longer infatuated with the current “track” at its peak, and began to look for the vaguely visible “certainty” in the future.
Although this “certainty” has not been verified by financial data, and even the fundamentals have not been significantly improved, only an effective information that can be “determined” is that its price is much lower than the previous high, and the “upward space” is theoretically greater than the “downward space”.
Unknowingly, it has been several weeks since the roadshow of the post-85 fund managers. Some of the pork stocks mentioned in his roadshow have rebounded nearly 40% from the lowest, but the related pig prices still failed to get out of the “bottom area”.
Since this week, pork stocks have unexpectedly soared under the market downturn, and even several stocks have closed the trading limit. Taking Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) as an example, in the data of the daily trading list the day before yesterday, there were three institutions and one Shenzhen Stock connect in the buying seats, and there was only one “institution dedicated” seat in the selling seats.
The fundamentals have not changed. The spot price is in the doldrums, but the stock price is hot and abnormal, rising several waves from the bottom. Similar cases include not only pork and pork stocks, but also house price and real estate stocks, as well as film box office and film stocks.
Taking the real estate leader Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) as an example, affected by the expected relaxation of real estate policy, it fell to the lowest point of 9.03 yuan in early August last year. So far, the stock has risen several waves. On January 11, the highest intraday rise of the stock was 17.08 yuan, just one step away from doubling. Similarly, the leading film stocks Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) also rebounded by about 40% from the bottom.
In the past few months, the real estate industry has been jittery. Rumors of real estate relaxation have failed again and again. The sales data have fallen into the “freezing point”. At present, there is no sign of recovery, but the leading stock price can no longer see the lowest point in the darkest hour.
“As long as the price is expected to rise, whether half a year or a year later, there will be funds to ambush in advance.” Some people concluded that as long as they see some vaguely “certainty”, they will lead to the advance ambush of institutions. After all, “it is better to start first and suffer later!”.
Similarly, the prices of many products have been rising, but the stocks have been hammered all the way, such as lithium and rare earth, because they expect the prices to fall sooner or later, whether one year later or two years later. Perhaps this can also explain that everyone is optimistic about the new energy track, but the stock price has fallen endlessly recently.
So someone began to reflect – “when a market ignores the current situation of the industry and tries hard to move forward in the layout game, even more than a year in advance, it is difficult to say that this market is in a normal state. Does an unhealthy market go far?”
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