Important changes in the industry this week
1. Price: the price of lithium carbonate decreased this week, and the prices in other links were relatively stable; 2. Terminal: from April 11 to 17, 187000 passenger cars were retailed, with – 39% / + 8% on a week-on-week basis and 6.07w on new energy vehicles, with + 26.2% on a month-on-week basis. The terminal has recovered, but it is still at a low point; 3. Event: Shanghai auto industry gradually resumed production, Lexus EV platform model RZ was launched worldwide, Tesla‘s first quarterly report and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) annual report.
This week’s core view
The worst impact of the epidemic has passed, and supply and demand have begun to repair gradually. Supply side: Tesla, SAIC and others began to resume work and production this week. On April 18, the national teleconference on ensuring smooth logistics and promoting the stability of industrial chain supply chain was held in Beijing, and the Yangtze River Delta and national automobile supply chain began to recover gradually; Demand side: from April 11 to 17, 187000 passenger cars were retailed, with – 39% / + 8% on a week-on-week basis and + 26.2% on a month-on-month basis. The insurance volume of new energy vehicles was 6.07w, and the end consumption has also bottomed out.
Tesla Q1 had a brilliant performance and the gross profit margin increased against the trend. Tesla Q1 revenue was 18.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 81% and a month on month increase of + 6%. The net profit was 3.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 658% and a month on month increase of + 43%. The profit in a single quarter hit a record high. After deducting the points, the gross profit margin is 30%, month on month + 1%.
Q2, look at the battery factory. The price transmission of the industrial chain will lead to large quarterly business fluctuations in different links. As the price rise of batteries is concentrated from March to April, we expect that the profit pressure of Q1 battery link is relatively large, but Q2 is expected to improve significantly month on month; For the main engine plants, since the price increase is also concentrated from March to April, for the main engine plants with large stock orders, the performance of Q2 is expected to reach the bottom and Q3 ushers in a reversal.
The end of the epidemic is gradually emerging, and we will continue to focus on the electric vehicle sector. Since mid March, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the share prices of some auto parts companies have fallen by more than 20%. Previously, the market was pessimistic that the impact of the epidemic on supply and demand would reach two months. The Shanghai auto industry began to gradually resume production in April, exceeding market expectations. Continue to stick to the main line of electric vehicles, “there is lithium, there is a car” is our core view of the terminal, “light total quantity, heavy structure” is our goal
Important industry events this week:
Tesla has made comments on the quarterly report of Tesla, the quarterly review of the quarterly report of Tesla, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) commentson the first quarterly report of 3 22 years, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced the employee stock ownership plan and repurchased 1.8-1.85 billion yuan of shares.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected. Risk of policy changes.
