Review of the banking sector: the banking index fell 3.0% this week, but outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.24pct, still with relative returns. Bank of China (+ 0.7%) and Bank of Communications (+ 0.7%) performed better than other banks (+ 0.6%), and Bank of Communications (+ 0.2%) in Nanjing. Northbound capital this week allocated additional industrial (+ 546 million yuan), Bank of Communications (+ 319 million yuan), Agricultural Bank of China (+ 280 million yuan) and other targets.
1q partial equity fund banking position: the position proportion hit the bottom and rebounded, and the position of high-quality regional urban commercial banks reached a new high.
1) overall heavy position: the position proportion of bank shares bottomed out and rebounded, ending the continuous downward trend in the early stage. The proportion of 1q fund’s heavy positions in bank stocks increased by 1.1pct to 4.0% over the beginning of the year, ending the downward trend for four consecutive quarters in 2021, and the increase in the proportion of positions ranked first in all industry sectors. Compared with the high point of 6.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2021, the current position proportion still has some room for improvement.
2) position of branches: focus on adding regional banks, and the position proportion of urban commercial banks has reached a record high. The positions of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks were 0.5%, 1.9%, 1.5% and 0.1% respectively, up 0.3, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.1pct respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The position proportion of urban commercial banks has reached a record high. Since 21q2, the allocation proportion has increased quarter by quarter, and the willingness of institutional allocation is strong.
3) increase of individual shares in banks: all state-owned banks have been increased, and the allocation of joint-stock banks is obvious. For regional banks, they focus on regions with strong economic vitality such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chengdu and Chongqing. a. State owned banks: the proportion of positions held by the six major state-owned banks increased between 0.03 and 0.09pct, and the proportion of positions held by ICBC (+ 0.09pct), China Construction Bank (+ 0.08pct) and Agricultural Bank of China (+ 0.06pct) increased significantly; b. Joint stock banks: the positions of China Merchants Bank and Societe Generale increased by 0.22 and 0.14 PCT respectively, which were the two subjects with the most additional allocation for partial stock funds; c. Regional banks: increased holdings of more stocks, mainly including Ningbo (+ 0.13pct), Chengdu (+ 0.11pct), Nanjing (+ 0.06pct), Changshu (+ 0.04pct), Jiangsu (+ 0.04pct), Hangzhou (+ 0.04pct), etc.
The capital 1q allocation behavior of northbound fund is similar to that of domestic partial share funds. From the perspective of the banking sector as a whole, the stock market value of the bank held by the northern capital 1q increased by 19.324 billion yuan, and the position proportion increased by 2.2pct to 8.9% compared with the beginning of the year. The amount of position increase and the increase of position proportion ranked first in the whole industry; In terms of individual stocks, China Merchants Bank (+ 9.317 billion yuan) and Societe Generale (+ 3.260 billion yuan) are also the two subjects with the largest increase in capital holdings in the north; Among state-owned banks, postal savings (+ 2.899 billion yuan), Bank of Communications (+ 1.758 billion yuan), Bank of China (+ 596 million yuan) and Agricultural Bank of China (+ 244 million yuan) ranked first in the amount of increased holdings; The allocation of regional banks also focuses on high-quality corporate banks in economically developed areas such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Chengdu and Chongqing, such as Chengdu (+ 1.187 billion yuan), Ningbo (+ 766 million yuan), Jiangsu (+ 604 million yuan), Changshu (+ 518 million yuan), etc.
Investment logic of bank stocks: as the “steady growth” enters a critical period, a series of “steady growth” policies are intensively released. The monetary policy is more restrained in reducing interest rates and reserve requirements, but the requirements for stable credit supply are still strong. The recent epidemic in Shanghai has had a certain impact on the stability of the industrial chain in the Yangtze River Delta, but the National Conference on ensuring smooth logistics and promoting the stability of the industrial chain supply chain was held in time. All departments actively issued cooperation policies. The people’s Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development, and put forward 23 policies and measures to strengthen financial support for the real economy. On April 24, Wang Yiming, member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, said that more favorable macro policy measures should be taken to strive for 2q economic growth to return to more than 5%. The “steady growth” initiative is expected to be further strengthened. Listed banks will focus on the release of the first quarterly report next week. From the situation of the four banks in Nanjing, Changshu, Zhangjiagang and China Merchants Bank that have released 1q results, the revenue growth rate of the three banks in Jiangsu has increased quarter on quarter, and the high profit growth rate is stable. It is expected that the 1q performance of high-quality banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions is relatively uncertain. Continue to recommend Nanjing, Changshu, Jiangsu and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) ; Simultaneously recommend the “head geese” of credit supply and the main line of big banks with obvious advantages on the liability side, with emphasis on Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . In addition, as the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the Yangtze River Delta has gradually emerged since late March, it is also necessary to continue to pay attention to the possible negative impact on credit supply and asset quality in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Real estate risk situation disturbance; Financial profit giving entities exceeded expectations.
