The bottom or has appeared, the layout still needs to be calm. Affected by the resumption of work and production in Shanghai, the auto sector performed relatively well this week, down 2.73%, ranking 6 / 30. The resumption of production in Shanghai, which is at the core of the national automobile industry, indicates that the “policy bottom” of the automobile sector may have appeared, and the consolidation of the “market bottom” needs to be verified by the subsequent consumption data. Considering the sporadic spread of the epidemic throughout the country (such as the shutdown of some auto enterprises in Guangzhou this week), there is still pressure on the macro economy and there may be twists and turns in the recovery process of auto consumption. We expect that the sector market is difficult to “achieve it overnight”, so the layout still needs to be calm. We suggest “bargain hunting layout” and “steady and steady”.
Tesla Q1 performance greatly exceeded expectations. On April 20, 2022, Tesla announced its 2022q1 financial report, which greatly exceeded the market expectation: 1) Q1 revenue was $18.76 billion, yoy was 80.5%, and the revenue growth was due to: ① the delivery volume increased, Q1 delivered 310000 vehicles, yoy was 67.7%, ② ASP increased, Q1 single vehicle revenue was $52000, yoy was 10.9%. 2) The net profit attributable to Q1 was US $3.32 billion, yoy 657.5%, far exceeding market expectations. The net interest rate was 17.7%, year-on-year + 13.5pct; In terms of splitting, the gross profit margin of Q1 was 29.1%, year-on-year + 7.8pct; R & D expense ratio was – 1.8pct year-on-year, and SG & A expense ratio was – 4.9pct year-on-year, which increased the operating profit margin (EBIT / revenue) by 14.5pct to 19.2% year-on-year. 3) Automobile business: Q1 revenue was 16.19 billion yuan, yoy 86.0%; Under the background of great pressure on the cost side, the gross profit margin reached 32.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.4pct and a month on month increase of + 2.3pct, mainly due to the price increase of Q1 products, scale effect, integrated die casting and other production technologies to improve efficiency and reduce cost. 4) Production capacity: with the Berlin plant and Austin plant put into operation successively, the existing production capacity of Shanghai and Fremont are 800000 (1 million expected by the end of 2022) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) respectively, and the planned production capacity of Berlin and Texas plants are 500000 and 1 million respectively, with a total production capacity of 3.1 million, laying a solid foundation for Tesla‘s expansion in the next two years.
The impact of the epidemic on automobile production and marketing is obvious. In the first two weeks of April, the approved sales of the passenger Federation decreased by 44.5% year-on-year. Since April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has further aggravated and affected spillovers. The average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars in the first two weeks of April were 24000 and 23000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 39.3% and 50.9% respectively; The average daily retail sales were 25000 and 27000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% and 39.4% respectively. At present, some key enterprises in Shanghai automobile industry chain have resumed production, and the most serious stage of the epidemic may have passed. However, due to the long automobile industry chain, the slow progress of climbing production, and the repeated impact of the epidemic on other parts of the country, there are still some uncertainties in the production and marketing of Q2.
Investment suggestions: 1) after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of the whole vehicle is reasonable; The prospect of independent rise is promising. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Smart cars, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) . ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry exceeded expectations; The sales volume is lower than expected; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
