Education industry
China’s education index rose or fell – 5.82% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses were: Hope Education (- 20.00%), Tianli Education (- 19.57%), maple leaf Education (- 18.60%), Doushen(Beijing) Education&Technology Inc(300010) (- 12.38%) and Chengdu Yunda Technology Co.Ltd(300440) (- 11.77%).
Viewpoint: 1) on the whole, the education industry still maintains a cautious attitude. The opportunities mainly come from the individual stock level, mainly due to the dilemma reversal brought by the transformation. 2) It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. K9 discipline business was stripped off on December 31, 2021, and the negative factors were cleared. We believe that the company’s resources are expected to tilt towards university adult business and achieve strong growth. In addition, the company is actively transforming to institutions and live broadcasting. The process of new business from 0 to 1 is worthy of attention. The bottom logic is that the brand, human and material resources of New Oriental and Yu Minhong are still strong.
Wine travel catering
This week, the hotel catering and leisure (Changjiang) / Consumer Service HK (CITIC) index rose or fell – 4.45% / – 7.21%. Stocks with large gains and losses were: Haichang Ocean Park (+ 18.30%), St tengbang (- 24.03%), St Donghai a (- 22.10%), Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) (- 20.27%), Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) (- 16.93%), Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (- 16.39%).
Viewpoint: 1) in the short term, the epidemic situation in Shanghai will continue to be high-pressure, and the epidemic situation in many local places will break out. Under the epidemic prevention policy of “dynamic clearing”, the catering, wine and tourism industry will be greatly hit. 2) In addition, some Chinese enterprises listed in the United States and Hong Kong at the same time may be affected by the “delisting of China concept shares”. 3) In the medium and long term, with the increase of vaccination rate and the listing of covid-19 specific drugs, and the gradual relaxation of entry-exit restrictions in some overseas countries and regions, the industry is expected to recover.
Beauty care
This week, the beauty care (Shenwan) index rose or fell by – 0.87% in total, and the stocks with large increases were: Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) (+ 14.53%), Tianjin Yiyi Hygiene Products Co.Ltd(001206) (+ 8.04%), Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) (+ 6.88%); Stocks with large declines include Mingchen Health Co.Ltd(002919) (- 16.35%), Shenzhen Leaguer Co.Ltd(002243) (- 6.85%) and St Langqi (- 6.43%).
Viewpoint: under the influence of multiple factors such as the overall weak consumption, the repeated impact of the epidemic on cosmetics consumption, and the strengthened supervision of cosmetics related industries, the growth rate of cosmetics market is slightly weaker than that before the epidemic, but there are structural opportunities: 1) the growth of high-end cosmetics and efficacy skin care products is stronger than that of the market; 2) The market share of brands and enterprises with strong product strength and strong R & D strength is expected to continue to increase.
Individual stock views and risk tips
Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , up or down – 5.09% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious. Big cities such as Shanghai are the key areas of the company’s business. In addition, the epidemic will also have a certain impact on the short-term advertising budget of advertisers; 2) Focus’s business model and demand trend are still strong. We firmly believe that the future of consumer brands is the future of focus and continue to firmly recommend. The PE valuation in 2022 is less than 20 times and maintain “strong recommendation”.
The same hunting employment increased or decreased by – 11.61% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the long-term growth rate of revenue is 20% +, 40% + for four consecutive quarters, and CAGR is 30% in the next three years; 2) Robust hrsaas model, 2b renewal rate of 80% +, Ka renewal rate of 90% +; 3) At present, the commercialization rate is only about 7%. It is estimated that there will be 1 million registered enterprises and 70000 paying enterprises in 2021; 4) In 2020, the ARPU of b-end was 31300 yuan, and the CAGR (20172020) was 16.1%, which continued to grow. “Highly recommended”.
New Oriental online, up or down – 9.51% this week. Viewpoint: 1) negative clearing of policy business operation; 2) University adult business is expected to rebound strongly; 3) Both institutional business and live delivery are new businesses from 0 to 1; 4) New Oriental’s human and material resources are still strong, the group’s book cash exceeds 30 billion, and the core talent team led by Yu Minhong is still growing. New Oriental online, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, has undertaken many strategic transformation directions of the group. It is suggested to actively focus on transformation opportunities.
Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) , up or down – 2.32% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the probiotic industry is in a period of rapid development, and its application field has expanded from dairy products to many markets such as medical care, drugs and cosmetics; 2) More than 80% of China’s Probiotic raw materials, bacterial powder or strains depend on import; 3) Domestic probiotic raw materials are starting, Ketuo’s position as a domestic leader is becoming increasingly prominent, and its downstream b-end customers have just begun to produce large quantities. In 2022, the company’s Probiotic business is expected to account for 50%, and the growth rate of probiotic business is expected to remain high. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Haidilao rose or fell by – 5.07% this week. Viewpoint: 1) repeated short-term epidemic situation and fluctuation of business data; 2) The adjustment of the company’s internal organization such as closing stores is basically in place, and the enterprise management and operation are good; 3) Haidilao is still the best catering chain brand in China and one of the first choices for ordinary residents. In the medium and long term, its brand, single store and management belong to the “benchmark” in China’s catering industry. The stock price is depressed due to the epidemic and other factors, and the safety margin of valuation is sufficient. It is recommended to pay active attention.
For the same journey, the cumulative increase and decrease this week was – 3.60%. Views: 1) the short-term epidemic has impacted tourism travel and business fluctuation; 2) Tongcheng has an obvious traffic monopoly advantage in Tencent, and has a relatively first mover advantage in offline cities and regions. Its operation mode is relatively light. It is expected to rebound first under the background of post epidemic tourism recovery. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Ctrip group – s, up or down – 7.44% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious, China’s tourism and business travel are blocked, and the market of the whole tourism and hotel industry is depressed; 2) Recently, there has been continuous delisting of zhonggai shares, and the company’s share price is expected to fluctuate greatly; 3) In the long run, Ctrip’s business model is still the leader of the serious travel industry. In the long run, Ctrip’s business model is still highly concerned. In the long run, Ctrip’s business model is still the leader of the industry.
Huazhu group – s, up or down – 10.93% this week. Viewpoint: 1) repeated short-term epidemic situation and fluctuation of business data; 2) Recently, there has been continuous delisting of zhonggai shares, and the company’s share price is expected to fluctuate greatly; 3) However, in the post epidemic era, the expectation of business recovery of the wine and tourism industry is strong, and the leader deserves more attention; We are optimistic about the chain and concentration trend of hotel leaders, and suggest to actively pay attention to the opportunities after oversold.
Risk tips: 1) policy changes; 2) Repeated outbreaks; 3) Impact of emergencies, etc.
