Since the beginning of this year, the economy has continued to weaken and steady growth has continued to strengthen, and the two clues of economy and policy are intertwined. From the perspective of economic clues, when data and information cause economic concerns, bank stocks will adjust, the adjustment range and time are limited, or the relative adjustment is not significant. From the policy clues, the steady growth and steady real estate policies have a significant catalytic effect on bank stocks. Since the beginning of this year, steady growth has replaced structural adjustment and become the core of the policy, which is the main logic for the improvement of the performance of bank stocks. At present, the logic of economy and policy has not changed.
From March to April, the economy has been impacted by the epidemic, the pressure has intensified, and the export has a marginal weakening trend. The policy has achieved more remarkable results in infrastructure and government investment, and the structural factors of economic demand have changed. Combined with the main driving points of the policy, it gives a clearer line for stock selection.
Since April, the impact of the epidemic on the economy has intensified, and the export margin has weakened. The economic data from April to may may may have a slight and phased impact on bank stocks, but the investment main line of bank stocks “steady growth” has not changed, and the expectation of economy and real estate tends to be sufficient. The steady growth and steady real estate will strengthen the force. The epidemic may also improve in the second quarter, the effectiveness of infrastructure will gradually appear, and bank stocks do not lack catalysis. Still optimistic about the performance of the industry, and continue to recommend high-quality regional banks. At the same time, we will also continue to observe the impact of changes in real estate, export and manufacturing on bank stock selection.
Reiterate the view that steady growth and steady real estate should be strengthened, and continue to be optimistic about the bank market. High quality city commercial banks are preferred, and individual stocks continue to recommend high-quality regional banks: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and so on, focusing on the value of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
The interest rate will not rise, but the cross month interest rate will not fall close to the lowest point of the year. As this week approaches the next month, the central bank has maintained a stable operation in the open market, with a net return of 10 billion yuan. Under normal circumstances, the capital interest rate will rise sharply due to the rise of liquidity demand and insufficient investment in the open market. However, the capital interest rate will decline significantly this week, especially the overnight interest rate of inter-bank lending and pledged repo, which are the lowest level in recent years. The main reason is that the central bank will reduce the deposit reserve of financial institutions on April 25, which is expected to release 530 billion yuan. Especially for urban commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with reserve ratio higher than 5%, they can enjoy another 0.25% reserve reduction. Therefore, the banking system, especially small and medium-sized banks, is expected to have sufficient liquidity next week. In combination with the central bank’s notice on doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control and financial services for economic and social development issued on the 18th of this week, it stressed that it would maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and guide financial institutions to expand loans; At the same time, the Party committee meeting was held on the 22nd of this week, which once again stressed the need to implement sound monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. We believe that the central bank will maintain sufficient market liquidity and worry free cross month funds.
The Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) market performed best this week, while the share prices of large state-owned banks rose as a whole. The average growth rate of state-owned banks this week was 0.35%, with an upward trend except Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) ; Affected by the change of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) Management (- 9.25%), the performance of the joint-stock bank as a whole was poor. The urban and rural commercial bank with strong trend in the early stage decreased significantly this week, especially the average decline of rural commercial bank this week was 4.24%, which was mainly dragged down by Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) (- 10.80%). Overall, the bank index fell by 2.95%, and the A-share bank index outperformed the wind all a index by 1.81 percentage points. According to the rise and fall of Shenwan industry, the banking sector ranked 10 / 31, down 2 places from last week.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
