I. financial 22q1 position performance:
1) banks: the shareholding ratio of heavy positions increased by 1.09pc to 4.02% compared with that at the end of 2021, ranking seventh in Shenwan industry; 2) Non bank finance: the proportion of heavy positions was 1.50%, ranking 16th, with a reduction of 0.75pc compared with the end of 2021. From the perspective of sub sectors, the reduction of insurance positions is 0.02pc and that of securities companies is 0.84pc.
Bank: the increase rate is the highest in the market.
1) the overall position proportion of the banking sector increased. As of 2022q1, the proportion of “bank” held by the fund was 4.02%, an increase of 1.09pc (corresponding to 13.83% of standard configuration) compared with the end of 2021, with the largest proportion of increased holdings in various industries.
2) China Merchants, Xingye, Ningbo, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) etc. have increased their holdings by a large margin and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) reduced their holdings. China Merchants, Societe Generale, Ningbo and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) increased their holdings by 0.22pc, 0.14pc, 0.13pc and 0.11pc respectively month on month, while Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) decreased its holdings by 0.09pc.
Banks have been significantly increased. On the one hand, since the beginning of the year, the policy portfolio has transmitted from wide currency to wide credit, and “steady growth” has been making continuous efforts, bringing about the repair of economic expectations. On the other hand, from the annual reports and quarterly reports successively disclosed by banks, the overall performance of the sector is relatively stable and excellent, the performance of high-quality banks is stronger, and funds continue to flow in.
At present, the position proportion of the banking sector is still at the low level of nearly 10 years (about 1 / 3 quantile). Historically, the fund position proportion is also at the same or lower level in 14, 16 and 20 years. In the follow-up, with the stabilization and improvement of the economy, the valuation of bank shares is repaired and the position proportion is increased. At the end of the year 14 to the beginning of the year 15, in the year 17 to 19, and in the first half of the year 21, it reached more than 4%, or even higher (the proportion of positions at the end of the year 14 and the end of the year 19 reached more than 6%). At present, although the economic pressure is relatively large, it has been reflected in the current undervalued value of 0.61xpb. In the future, with the continuous development of the “steady growth” policy combination, it will help to support the expectation of subsequent improvement of the real economy, thus forming a positive catalyst for the sector, and the fund position is still expected to be further improved.
Insurance: the position at the bottom of history continues to decline.
1) the proportion of positions continues to fall to the bottom of history, and there is still a slight decline compared with the end of 2021. The proportion of “insurance” of fund positions in 2022q1 was 0.15%, which continued to decrease by 0.02pc month on month. The standard configuration of the sector is 1.78%, and the configuration proportion continues to be at the lowest level in history. At present, the real estate risk on the asset side of the insurance sector has been marginally mitigated, but there is still some pressure on the liability side. Therefore, it is subject to continuous position reduction.
2) in terms of individual stocks, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) obtained a small increase in holdings, and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 continued to reduce holdings. The allocation proportion of the institution to Ping An and CPIC was 0.12% and 0.02% respectively, and the holdings were reduced by 0.003pc and 0.02pc respectively.
The overall position of securities companies decreased significantly.
1) some stocks in 22q1 sector have reduced their positions. At the end of 22q1, the proportion of “securities companies” in fund positions was 1.18%, down 0.84pc from the end of 2021. Since the beginning of the year, the capital market has fluctuated sharply, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by more than 15%, the market sentiment is weak, the trading activity has decreased, the securities sector is under pressure, and the capital flows out.
2) in terms of individual stocks, the positions of Dongcai and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) were significantly reduced. Dongcai reduced its holdings by 0.59pc to 0.77%, and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) reduced its holdings by 0.09pc to 0.09%. The two leading wealth management securities companies suffered a large proportion of reduction under the condition of weak market performance.
Note 1: it mainly counts the allocation of heavy positions of active partial stock funds (including common stock funds and partial stock hybrid funds) and flexible allocation funds; Note 2: proportion of heavy position allocation = market value of a stock held by the fund in heavy position / total market value of the fund in heavy position; Note 3: standard allocation = the current market value of a stock / the current market value of all heavy positions of the fund.
II. Quarterly report data of four banks:
1. Profit: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) Q1 revenue growth rates were 8.54%, 20.39%, 19.34% and 11.8% respectively, and profit growth rates were 12.52%, 22.33%, 23.38% and 29.74% respectively. Except that the growth rate of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) profit decreased (the growth rate of non interest income at the revenue end is mainly low; as well as the increase of bad real estate exposure, the corresponding provision increased and the profit growth slowed down), the growth rate of revenue and profit of the other three companies increased slightly or basically remained the same as that of the annual report.
Specifically, in terms of net interest margin, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) were 2.51% and 3.09% respectively, both of which increased by 3bps compared with the annual report; The other two banks declined. In terms of net income from handling fees and commissions, due to the fluctuation of Q1 capital market, the net income from handling fees and commissions of the four banks decreased compared with the annual report. Among them, the growth rates of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) Q1 were 5.49% and 11.2%, down 13.3pc and 5.6pc compared with the annual report. The data of the two rural commercial banks fluctuate greatly due to their small volume.
2. Scale: Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) deposit and loan increased by 13.15% and 10.53% respectively (compared with the end of the previous year, the same below), with the highest growth rate among the four banks. In addition to the strong regional economy, it mainly benefited from its network expansion strategy. The Q1 NEW loans and deposits of the 15 newly established sub branches in 2021 accounted for 1 / 4 and 11.5% of the new loans and deposits of the whole bank respectively Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) as rural commercial banks in Suzhou, the loan growth rate is the same, 6.34% and 6.85% respectively. In terms of deposits, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) performs better (11.78%), higher than the growth rate of 6.1% in Zhangjiagang China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) due to the large volume, although the growth rate is relatively low, the scale growth is also relatively stable (the growth rates of loans and deposits are 3.38% and 5.25% respectively).
3. Asset quality: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) due to the increased exposure of non-performing real estate, the non-performing rate at the end of March was 0.94%, an increase of 0.03pc compared with the end of the previous year. The increase of non-performing loans led to a decrease in the provision coverage of 21Pc to 462.68%. Although the data fluctuated, the absolute level of asset quality was still the best among stock banks and the first tier of listed banks. The NPLs of the other three banks were flat or slightly reduced, and the provision coverage increased steadily. (see the text table for specific data)
III. regular data tracking:
Equity market tracking:
1) trading volume: the average daily turnover of stocks this week was nearly 800 billion yuan, a decrease of 109371 billion yuan compared with last week.
2) two financing: the balance is 1.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.54% over last week.
3) fund issuance: this week, non monetary funds issued 31.426 billion shares, an increase of 21.881 billion month on week. In April, a total of 53.704 billion shares were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 22.872 billion. Among them, 2.257 billion were stock type, with a year-on-year decrease of 727 million; The mixed type was 7.052 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.912 billion.
Interest rate market tracking:
1) interbank certificates of deposit: A. volume: according to wind data, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 0.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.74 billion yuan from last week; Since April, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has been 1.47 trillion yuan, and the current balance of interbank certificates of deposit is 14.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 62.690 billion yuan compared with the end of March; B. The interest rate of interbank certificates issued last week was 38.9bps lower than that of this week; Since April, the issue interest rate has been 2.44%, down 10bps from March.
2) Bill interest rate: the 3-month discount rate of bank notes of large state-owned banks + joint-stock banks this week was 1.76%, down 7bps from last week; The average interest rate in April was 1.83%, down 15bps from March. The three-month bank note discount rate of urban commercial banks was 1.86%, down 7bps from last week, and the average interest rate in April was 1.93%, down 22bps from last month.
3) yield of 10-year Treasury bonds: the average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds this week was 2.83%, up 6bps from last week. 4) Issuance scale of local government special bonds: 10.15 billion new special bonds were issued this week, a decrease of 8.818 billion month on week. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 1.40 trillion yuan has been issued. The annual budget of local special bonds in 2022 is 3.65 trillion yuan.
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupt intensively, and the macro-economy goes down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of insurance company’s guaranteed products were lower than expected
