Sector market review
This week (April 18-april 22), the transportation index fell 2.5%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.2%, outperforming the market by 1.7%, ranking 5 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the railway sector had the smallest decline (- 0.1%), and the comprehensive logistics sector had the largest decline (- 4.4%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: the resumption of work and production was accelerated, and the logistics recovery continued to improve. Since early March, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, some transit centers and outlets have been shut down, express delivery has been interrupted in many places, and delivery delays and suspension have also occurred on some e-commerce platforms, which has a great impact on express services. Recently, the State Council and the Ministry of Communications issued relevant policies to promote smooth traffic, and Jilin and Shanghai also issued policy guidelines for resumption of work and production. According to Guojin digital lab, in the 17th week (4.18-4.24), the national truck logistics intensity was 13.2, up 10% month on month, and the recovery process was accelerated. It is expected that the decline in express business volume is expected to narrow. In March 2022, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; Business income reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. Among them, SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business volume were – 8.3%, + 4.4%, + 5.1% and + 8.8% respectively year on year, and single ticket revenue was – 1.4%, + 18.3%, + 10.2% and + 13.8% respectively year on year. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong realized a net profit of about 545 million yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 186% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, and the certainty of performance repair is strong. The predicted profit of 2022q1 is 950 ~ 1.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 196% ~ 211%.
Logistics: the performance growth of chemical logistics is determined, and the demand of Tob supply chain is broad. There is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents such as Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and so on, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, the demand side still increases every year, and the performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) released the 2021 annual report and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 432 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. It is expected to maintain a high growth in the next two years. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airports: China’s epidemic is still sporadic, inhibiting the recovery of aviation demand. The number of newly diagnosed and asymptomatic covid-19 infections in China rose on Friday after a continuous decline for several days. The epidemic still significantly affected the civil aviation industry, and the flight rate of passenger aircraft in the whole industry was about 20%. In April 2022, the ex factory price (tax included) of China’s aviation kerosene was 7499 yuan / ton, up 52% from 2019, continuing to trigger the fuel surcharge adjustment mechanism. From April 5, the fuel surcharge of air tickets on Chinese routes will be raised to 50 yuan or 100 yuan. Demand has not recovered, or it is difficult to effectively transmit oil price pressure. According to Liaoning Daily, eight cities in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Dalian, Suzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen and Qingdao will start a four week pilot since April 11, including shortening the isolation time of entry / close contact personnel and relaxing the unsealing standards. We believe that it will reduce the pressure on the use of centralized isolation resources, help increase international flights and quickly recover production and life. The specific effects need to be tracked and observed Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) released the 2021 annual report, realizing an income of 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -498 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24 million yuan. Compared with 2020, the company’s revenue management strategy is more active. Thanks to the “off-season” from April to May and the better than expected performance of the summer games in July, the company’s annual passenger kilometer revenue was + 2% year-on-year, up from 87% in 2019. When the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the prosperity of the aviation market will rise, the company’s aviation network is relatively high-quality, and its profitability is expected to accelerate the repair. In the short term, the epidemic situation in China is still continuing, and the aviation department will reproduce large losses in the first quarter; At the same time, vaccines and covid-19 oral drugs will strengthen the covid-19 prevention and control system and help production and life return to normal. After the impact of the epidemic is eliminated, the airport operation of AVIC will be significantly improved and the investment value of the sector will be highlighted. Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
