Market review:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index fell by 5.96%, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.19% over the same period, and the basic chemical industry index underperformed the market by 1.77% over the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index fell 4.64%, underperforming the market by 0.45 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Liansheng chemical (43.65%), Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) (20.94%), Nanjing Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(600889) (15.98%), Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) (15.47%), Zhejiang Huasheng Technology Co.Ltd(605180) (14.63%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Miracll Chemicals Co.Ltd(300848) (- 40.65%), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (- 39.29%), Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) (- 21.54%), Lushan Xincai (- 20.66%) and Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) (- 20.35%).
Key investment points:
Refrigerants: last week, Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) and Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) released their annual performance reports for 2021, and their profitability increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the weakening marginal impact of macroeconomic repair and covid-19 epidemic in 2021, the warmer demand for refrigerants from air conditioners and automobiles at the downstream demand side, and the periodic shortage of refrigerants and raw materials due to the superposition of dual control of energy consumption in the second half of the year, The price difference of the product has also increased significantly. Up to now, the prices of mainstream three generations of refrigerants have fallen from the high level to varying degrees. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the average market prices of R32, R134a and R125 were 13500 yuan / ton, 22500 yuan / ton and 39000 yuan / ton respectively as of April 22. Among them, R32 and R134a are affected by the epidemic, the downstream demand is weak, the cost side support is weakened, and the price is still at the bottom stage in the short term; R125 has strong demand for downstream mixed distribution, tight spot supply and relatively stronger support at the cost side, and the price has begun to rise slightly. In the short term, the overall situation of the refrigerant market is still relatively low. It is expected that the refrigerant price will gradually rise with the control of the epidemic situation, macroeconomic repair and the recovery of downstream demand. In the medium and long term, 2022 is the end of the base year of the Kigali amendment. In the future, as the three generations of refrigerants enter the era of quota control, their supply and demand structure will be gradually improved, and the product price and profitability will return to a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises.
Glufosinate: last week, the price of glufosinate continued to rise. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 22, the quotation of 95% glyphosate raw powder manufacturers has been raised to 220000 yuan / ton, the mainstream transaction reference has been raised to 2 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 05000 yuan / ton, the individual high-end transaction price has been raised to 2100 Yunnan Yuntou Ecology And Environment Technology Co.Ltd(002200) 00 yuan / ton, and the port FOB has been 285 Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002900) 0 US dollars / ton. On the demand side, at present, the downstream market has a strong demand for glufosinate, there are sufficient domestic and foreign trade orders of production enterprises, and the transportation of Shanghai port has begun to recover in succession, and the situation of delayed order shipping has been alleviated. On the supply side, the operating rate of mainstream devices remains high, the spot market is still tight, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. It is expected that the price of glyphosate will still have some upward space in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors:
The risk of commencement and the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of chemicals.
