Key points
Immune cell therapy: a sharp weapon in the anti-cancer battlefield. Immune cell therapy refers to the collection of human autoimmune cells, after in vitro transformation and culture, so that their number can be expanded or their targeted killing ability can be increased, and then back into the patient’s body, so as to kill pathogens and tumor cells in blood and tissues. Compared with other tumor immunotherapy methods, immunocell therapy has the following advantages and characteristics: ① excellent therapeutic potential (overcoming the problems of drug resistance and recurrence); ② Unique treatment means (injected into the body are living cells, which can proliferate by themselves and take effect in one shot); ③ Excellent therapeutic effect (the total remission rate of kymriah in the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia was 83%).
Car-t cell therapy: prominent therapeutic advantages in the field of hematoma. Among many immune cell therapies, car-t therapy has the fastest progress and the most mature development. At present, 6 products have been approved by FDA and 2 products have been listed in China. Drug Ming junuo product benoda ® With the best objective remission rate of 75.9% and the best complete remission rate of 51.7%, it has prominent therapeutic advantages in the field of hematoma; The objective remission rate of Keji pharmaceutical product ct041 is 61.1%, which is much better than chemotherapy drugs (vs 4% ~ 8%), and the tackling of solid tumors can also be expected in the future.
Car-t market scale: anti cancer “cloud piercing arrow” directly hits the 10 billion market. Since car-t products were first approved for listing in 2017, the sales revenue of heavy products kymriah and yescarta has continued to grow rapidly (kymriah: sales revenue of USD 587 million (YoY + 24%) in 2021); Yescarta: in 2021, the sales revenue was 695 million US dollars (YoY + 23%). The global car-t cell therapy market continued to expand rapidly. 2021 is the first year of commercialization of car-t products in China. Because the production capacity cannot be fully released and the price of car-t drugs is too high, the patient acceptance and market scale are very limited. We believe that with the excellent efficacy of car-t therapy, the market space of car-t therapy will be opened one by one with the gradual implementation of the three strategies of “① expanding indications, not limited to hematoma; ② developing general therapy to further reduce costs; ③ diversifying means of payment and improving patients’ affordability”. According to Frost & Sullivan’s prediction, China’s car-t market space will increase to 28.9 billion yuan in 2030 (CAGR (2022 ~ 2030) = 45%).
Investment suggestion: the car-t cell therapy industry will enter a rapid growth period, and China’s 10 billion drug market will be opened. It is optimistic about enterprises that master core technology and have independent production capacity. With the increasing demand of patients, the continuous promotion of regulatory system, the increasingly close cooperation between China and foreign countries and the continuous investment of a large amount of funds in research and development, China’s car-t cell therapy industry is developing rapidly, and the era curtain of China’s cell therapy has been slowly opened. Although it started late, nearly 100 companies of different sizes have invested in the research and development of car-t therapy, and a number of car-t enterprises with unique characteristics and unique investment value have emerged. We are optimistic about the enterprises that really master the core technology and have independent production capacity. We recommend mingjuno-b (H) and Keji pharmaceutical-b (H), and suggest paying attention to Genxi Biology (o), legendary Biology (o), Fosun Kate, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , Xiangxue Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300147) , etc.
Risk analysis: risks related to new drug R & D, R & D expenses continue to increase, facing liquidity risks, and the acceptance of cell therapy products in the Chinese market is less than expected.
