Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the admission of incremental funds slowed down at the beginning of the year, and the differences between domestic and foreign capital continued to enlarge. On the one hand, compared with the previous two years, the fund issuance decreased significantly at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the admission rhythm of foreign capital also slowed down marginally, the balance of two financial institutions also fell slightly, and the incremental capital slowed down as a whole; On the other hand, the differences between domestic and foreign funds continued. Although the admission of foreign capital slowed down, the trading funds continued to flow in, while the sentiment of leveraged funds continued to decline. In addition, the transaction structure, turnover concentration degree to 60% points line repair, transaction differentiation maintained central shake, Chinese medicine, games and other industries accounted for the proportion of continued upward, Baijiu, thermal power, wind power transaction ratio fell significantly.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) rise and fall differentiation level: the rise and fall center has rebounded in the past Sunday, and the 28 differentiation has increased. The median daily increases and decreases of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were 0.11%, 0.12% and 0.12% respectively; The Income Differentiation of February 8th rose to 22.93%, and the degree of transaction differentiation of February 8th fell to 17.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has declined. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks has changed by - 0.34%, - 0.95% and - 1.1% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 56.1%, 56.3% and 56.9% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has rebounded, of which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries has changed by 0.33%, 0.57% and 0.38% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 3.3%, 10.1% and 16.1% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has rebounded. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by 1.65%, 1.69% and 0.54% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 80.1%, 84.4% and 78.5% respectively. The level of industry transaction differentiation has declined. The top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industry transaction differentiation coefficients have changed by 1.77%, - 1.01% and 0.19% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 67.9%, 62% and 65.8% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a dropped to 3.36, and the turnover rate of all a rebounded to 6.40%. 2) The VIX Index rose 1.43 month on month to 18.76. 3) The number of all a's new high and new low stocks rebounded month on month: the 60 day high 10 day moving average rose to 361 and the new low 10 day moving average rose to 93; The record high 10 day moving average fell to 17 and the record low 10 day moving average was 2. 4) The number of trend dominated stocks fell. The proportion of stocks above the 60 day moving average fell to 65.96% month on month, reaching a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks rose to 151. 5) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market rebounded to 39.76%, and the proportion of weak stocks fell to 20.38%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell to 23.31%. 7) The net inflow of foreign capital trading ma30 rebounded to 1.267 billion yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightness: the net return of money is 660 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate rises, the Shibor of each period falls, the interest rate of treasury bonds rises, the credit spread of each period falls, and the RMB depreciates.
2) capital supply: the newly issued scale of partial equity funds was about RMB 3.399 billion, the ETF share increased by 24.25 billion month on month, the net inflow of funds going north was RMB 6.203 billion, and the financing balance decreased by RMB 9.857 billion month on month.
3) capital demand: five new IPOs were added last week, with an initial financing scale of 61.727 billion yuan and an industrial capital reduction scale of about 6.148 billion yuan, with a fixed increase of 0. In addition, the lifting pressure picked up month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 64.607 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
