Sub industry core weekly view
The performance of the consumer industry was relatively differentiated this week, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery / household appliances / textile and garment / light industry manufacturing / media rising by 2.31% / 3.40% / 0.61% / 0.06% / 1.05% respectively; Food and beverage / commercial retail / social services / beauty care decreased by 3.42% / 1.36% / 0.22% / 5.47% respectively. Due to repeated epidemics in many places, the recovery of expected consumption scenarios is restricted, and the consumption performance of food and services is weak; The marginal recovery of real estate is expected, and household appliances are boosted; In addition, the undervalued sector also performed well.
Food and beverage: Baijiu plate has high certainty and strong performance. It is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of fundamentals and the channel conduction. At present, the leading high-end beer sector is progressing smoothly, and the medium and long-term goal has not been changed. It is suggested to weaken the off-season fluctuation, and focus on the demand recovery, price increase transmission and cost improvement in the 22-year peak season. The operation of condiment sector improved steadily in the fourth quarter. According to channel feedback, Haitian and Li Jinji have started Spring Festival stock up; Haitian took the lead in sorting out the price increase. It is expected that the price increase of other companies will be completed by the end of the first quarter, and the overall profit level of the condiment industry will be improved. The demand for dairy products is expected to remain relatively stable, and the performance elasticity is mainly reflected in the profit side. It is still recommended to grasp the two main lines of snack food, make a good layout of Jue flavor and bargain hunting, and continue to pay attention to marginal improvement and catalyst in Yanjin and Ganyuan.
Household appliances: affected by the marginal relaxation of real estate policy and the introduction of demand side stimulus policies in many cities, market confidence has recovered. Individual stocks in the sector generally rose, with excellent performance in baidianli Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , kitchen electricity Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) , small household appliances Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Lake electric appliance, Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) . We believe that the improvement of real estate at this stage can maintain a moderately optimistic attitude, benefit from the stabilization of policies and the improvement of financing side, and the sectors with strong correlation between white electricity, kitchen electricity and the post cycle of real estate are expected to pick up.
Light industry: home demand is expected to usher in a significant reversal, and the market continuity under the undervalued value of plates and mainstream stocks is worth looking forward to. From the perspective of flexibility, continue to focus on Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) self-improvement of the market; From the perspective of long-term stability, we continue to focus on recommending European School and Gu Jia. Their categories and channel layout have obviously been at the forefront of the industry.
Cosmetics: comprehensive channel, shake voice and other channels, brand / product strong performance is excellent, we recommend skin care brand Winona / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Dr. Er / run 100 Yan / tiktok, related subject Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) / Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) and so on. And the cosmetics brand Mao Geping / Caitang / huaxizi, and the related target Mao Geping / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) .
Media: long term optimistic about Hong Kong stock Internet, 22 years or the appropriate time point for the bottom configuration. Policy support: under the background of the SEC’s foreign company Accountability Act, the certainty of Hong Kong stocks relative to US stocks has improved, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange may become an important scene for long-term Internet configuration; Fundamentals bottoming: Internet companies focus on their main business after supervision and judge the fundamentals bottoming from the perspective of personnel; Low valuation: major Internet companies are currently at a low valuation.
Textile clothing: we are optimistic about the performance of the leading OEM in textile manufacturing in the short term. It is suggested to focus on Longtou Shenzhou International, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) ; Long term grasp the promotion of brand value of sports and high-end clothing, switch from following the trend to leading the brand, and pay attention to the strength under the background of slow growth of the industry α、 Li Ning, Tebu international, etc. are high certainty growth targets.
Investment advice
We will continue to pay attention to the transmission of price increases and demand recovery of mass consumer goods, grasp the rhythm of marginal improvement, and give consideration to valuation and growth. It is suggested to focus on the manufacturing of dairy products, leisure food & quick frozen products and sports shoes and clothing with the main line of price increase; Household appliances, media and home appliances that are expected to improve marginally at the level of industrial policy.
Risk tips
The global epidemic is serious, the economy is down sharply, policies and regulations are overweight, international trade policies are changing, etc.
