Crude oil: price shock. In the early part of the week, the EU planned to draft a plan to ban the import of Russian oil. At the same time, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field exacerbated the market’s concerns about supply. In addition, the market still considered that the export of Russian crude oil was restricted, investors’ concerns about tight oil supply intensified, and crude oil prices rose. In the late part of the week, although the U.S. crude oil inventory plummeted, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecast and warned of rising inflation, market concerns about the growth prospect of energy demand, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar exchange rate also put pressure on crude oil. The market weighed the impact of insufficient supply caused by sanctions against Russia and slow growth of energy demand on oil prices, and crude oil prices fluctuated. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 109.79 (+ 4.97) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 105.03 (+ 4.62) USD / barrel.
PX: the market is relatively warm. This week, the supply and demand structure of PX market is acceptable, with poor processing and good performance; The current price performance of PTA is strong, which has a certain support for the raw material market; At the same time, the overall start-up expectation of the Asian PX market is expected to weaken. The supply side prefers to operate. With the support of supply and demand, the focus of the PX market increased slightly during the week. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 121428 (+ 20.76) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 409.01 (- 19.34) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 249.56 (+ 5.50) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 70.18% (+ 2.18pct).
PTA: the center of gravity rose slightly. The overall supply of PTA market continues to weaken, and the devices will be restarted in parallel within the week. However, the mainstream factories are expected to start the maintenance of devices one after another at the end of April. At the same time, the available spot quantity of PTA is limited, and the current market performance of PTA is relatively strong. The market has certain optimistic expectations for polyester and terminal market, the terminal printing and dyeing control has been relaxed to a certain extent, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the demand side is currently operating at a low level, However, it is expected that the follow-up market will recover slowly and the demand for raw materials will increase; At the same time, the crude oil price has not dropped significantly, and the PTA market is relatively warm. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 626357 (+ 157.86) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is -103.68 (+ 25.33) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 63.90% (- 1.00pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1.832 (+ 0.00) million tons.
MEG: market price center rebounded. The international crude oil fell slightly, the international price of naphtha was adjusted synchronously, the price focus of power coal rose, and the cost side was still supported. From the supply side, affected by the epidemic in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the delivery speed of the main port has slowed down compared with that in the early stage, and the port inventory still shows the trend of accumulating inventory. However, in terms of the commencement of Chinese units, a total of three sets in East China and South China began to stop within a week. China’s output decreased significantly compared with last week, and the supply side was significantly positive. In terms of demand, some factories in terminal weaving resumed production, but the overall start-up is still low. At the same time, limited by the epidemic control policy, the logistics and transportation efficiency is reduced, the inventory of polyester factories is high, and factories often take measures to reduce production and ensure price, resulting in the decline of the overall start-up load of the industry and the sluggish demand side performance. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 490286 (+ 75.71) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 1153000 (+ 94800) tons, and the operating rate is 65.30% (+ 0.10pct).
Polyester filament: the market shows a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. This week, the polyester filament market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. At the beginning of the week, the international oil price continued to rise, the trend of polyester raw material end was relatively warm, and the cost pressure was large. Polyester filament enterprises raised their quotations one after another, the low-end negotiations in the market were reduced, and the transaction focus shifted upward. The downstream still maintained rigid replenishment, and the production and sales were general. In the middle of the week, the international oil price fell, but the cost pressure remained. The quotation of some filament enterprises increased by a narrow margin. Some enterprises offered preferential shipments. There was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. The on-site inquiry atmosphere warmed up and the production and sales data improved. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy796000 (+ 258.57) yuan / ton, fdy861714 (+ 347.14) yuan / ton and dty950000 (+ 192.86) yuan / ton, the average profit per ton of the industry is poy-161.71 (+ 64.43) yuan / ton, FDY + 8.96 (+ 123.21) yuan / ton and dty-2.42 (+ 20.81) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy34.00 yuan / ton respectively 70 (+ 1.20) days, fdy35 00 (+ 1.00) days and dty38 00 (+ 0.80) days, the operating rate is 78.80% (-4.50pct).
Weaving: the atmosphere of market transaction is cold. Due to the escalation of epidemic control, logistics was significantly blocked, and the enthusiasm for new product development in most weaving production bases decreased. Most of them were mainly conventional fabric production. The transaction atmosphere in the textile market was cold, resulting in the rise of finished product inventory in most local weaving factories. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 50.52% (- 1.22pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 35.50 (+ 0.50) days.
Polyester staple fiber: market focus moves upward. At the beginning of the week, the high level of crude oil was sorted out, superimposed on the information that the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction. There was more favorable atmosphere in the market. The quotation of most short fiber enterprises was increased, the transaction was moved up, the downstream mentality was cautious, and the production and sales were general. In the middle of the week, the oil price continued to rise, the cost support was strong, the short fiber enterprises continued to raise the quotation, the downstream replenished moderately in a warm atmosphere, and the production and sales rose slightly. Then the oil price fell broadly and the cost side trend was weak. However, due to the recent tight supply and high logistics and transportation costs, the enterprise quotation was very stable and the transaction price was also relatively stable. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 799619 (+ 220.95) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is + 28.24 (+ 39.46) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 2.80 (- 0.20) days, and the operating rate is 65.70% (- 2.50pct).
Polyester bottle chip: there are few transactions in the market. On the supply side, at present, the operation of enterprises is generally stable. A 500000 ton unit in South China has been restarted recently and has not been produced yet; The inventory of polyester bottle and chip factories in China has increased. This week, the crude oil market fluctuated at a high level, and the cost side rose and fell with each other. The support is OK. However, affected by the epidemic, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is obvious, and there are few market transactions. On the demand side, the recent epidemic control in various regions is relatively strict, the downstream enterprises are relatively difficult to get goods, the demand performance is sluggish, and the current market trend of bottles and tablets is relatively volatile, and most downstream enterprises hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 833571 (+ 175.00) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 386.33 (+ 8.96) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 89.00% (+ 2.30pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to April 22, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 110.09%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by – 4.40%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 4.36%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant was put into operation, and the production schedule was less than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
