Talk every Monday: large state-owned banks greatly increase their holdings by funds
Recently, the public fund released 2022q1 heavy position shareholding data. Since the position change of active partial equity funds can better reflect the market preference, we select common equity funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced hybrid funds as the representatives of active partial equity funds to statistically analyze the fund position.
The market value proportion of heavy positions in the banking sector rebounded month on month
From the situation of the whole banking sector, the proportion of active partial stock funds with heavy positions in banks has increased, and the banking sector continues to be in the state of low allocation:
The banking sector (CITIC primary industry) ranks seventh in terms of heavy position market value. By industry, the market value of 22q1 active fund’s heavy positions is 2417693 billion yuan. The top three industries with heavy positions are power equipment and new energy, medicine and food and beverage respectively. The heavy positions of the banking sector have a market value of 93.322 billion yuan, ranking seventh in various industries.
The market value proportion of heavy positions held by banks increased month on month. The market value of heavy positions of bank stocks accounted for 3.86% of the total market value of / fund heavy positions, up 1.02pct month on month compared with 21q4, continuing the downward trend of the proportion of bank positions since 21q2. On the one hand, due to the large fluctuation of the market due to the change of sector style, banks are favored by funds as a defensive sector, and on the other hand, due to the overweight of loose policies, the pessimistic expectations of the market for the banking sector have been corrected.
The banking sector is in a low allocation state. As of 22q1, the ratio of the free circulation market value of A-share banking sector to the total circulation market value was 7.37%, while the market value of bank positions in the fund’s heavy positions accounted for 3.86%, with a low allocation of 4.53%. Compared with 21q4, the low allocation difference has expanded, and the low allocation difference is the lowest level since 2018, but it is still at the highest level of low allocation difference in all sectors except banking and finance.
Large state-owned banks greatly increased their holdings by funds
From the perspective of individual stocks, there is a large differentiation of individual stocks in the banking sector, and funds prefer differentiated varieties with distinctive characteristics and strong growth. At the same time, large state-owned banks have greatly increased their holdings of funds:
The fund’s heavy positions are relatively concentrated. The top five positions are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (32.2%), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (22.8%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (8%), Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (5.3%) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (4.8%), accounting for 73% of the total market value of banks, which are high-quality bank stocks with distinctive characteristics and strong growth.
Among the large state-owned banks, the number of heavy positions of funds increased year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) and Bank Of China Limited(601988) was much higher than that of the other four banks, mainly due to the small base number of positions, and the growth rate of positions of the other four banks was faster year-on-year. Mainly because infrastructure investment is the core driving factor of this steady growth, and the credit supply of state-owned banks is relatively faster.
Among the urban rural commercial banks, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) positions increased by 82.1%, 59.17% and 48.49% respectively year-on-year, and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) positions increased by 38.58% year-on-year. The urban rural commercial banks with high-quality regional location continued to receive the attention of the fund.
Investment strategy: since the second quarter, the easing policy has continued to increase, which helps to alleviate the pressure on asset quality and net interest margin faced by banks, and the bank’s operating environment has been marginally improved. We suggest paying attention to two types of banks: the first is large state-owned banks. Infrastructure investment is the core driving factor of this steady growth. Benefiting from this, it is expected that the credit supply of state-owned banks will continue to increase year-on-year. We suggest paying attention to state-owned banks with excellent fundamentals, such as Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) . The second category is urban and rural commercial banks with excellent regional location. From the perspective of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) that have disclosed the first quarterly report of 22 years, they both show the characteristics of booming deposits and loans and continuous improvement of asset quality. It is suggested to close Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) .
Risk warning: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; Covid-19 is at risk of continued deterioration.
