\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Event: the company released the first quarter report of 2022, and the revenue in the first quarter of 2022 was 575 million yuan, a decrease of 2.91% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 61 million yuan, with a decrease of 25.15%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 49 million yuan, with a decrease of 27.28%.
The Spring Festival dislocation superimposed the spread of the epidemic, and the Q1 income fell slightly. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 575 million yuan, a decrease of 2.91% at the same time. We expect that the main reasons are: (1) the dislocation of the Spring Festival led to a high base in the same period; (2) In March, the epidemic spread across the country, and the logistics was restricted. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized a net cash flow from operating activities of 87 million yuan, an increase of 199.14% at the same time. It is expected that it is mainly due to the pre impact of the payment collection time of some supermarkets. Considering that the epidemic situation in the company's core market has been gradually controlled, the epidemic situation has stimulated home consumption, and the company's 22q1 investment attraction is good, we expect that the impact of 22q2 epidemic on the company will be smaller and smaller.
The gross sales difference has widened, and the profitability is resilient. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 38.59%, down 5.43pct, the sales expense rate was 20.06%, down 1.91pct, and the gross sales difference was 3.52pct, up + 0.55pct month on month. We expect that the main reasons are: (1) the cost of raw materials (palm oil, soybean oil, etc.) has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, while some raw materials have fallen since 22q1; (2) Reclassification of logistics costs and distribution costs under the new accounting standards; (3) At the same time, the proportion of the company's distribution channels and snack chain channels increased, the proportion of direct operators decreased, and the level of cost investment decreased. Meanwhile, the management + R & D expense ratio of 22q1 company was flat year-on-year, with a slight increase of 0.4pct, which is expected to be mainly affected by the amortization of equity incentive expenses. To sum up, the net interest rate of 22q1 company is 10.68%, with a decrease of 3.18pct, with a month on month ratio of -0.55pct, highlighting the toughness of profitability.
Deepen the construction of marketing channels and promote strategic transformation. 2022 is the first year of the company's strategic transformation. The new sales points of the salty flavor business division are planned to double, and the standardized display of sales points is comprehensively promoted; The baking division launched 10000 new counters and opened 35000 outlets; The quantitative packaging business department will focus on 16 core provinces and cities, store the market kick-off meeting + multi-point display, and cover 100000 terminals; The circulation business department selects and matches individual products according to local conditions and the actual situation of each province, so as to expand and strengthen the market. The online business master tiled Yanjin brine, brand operation brand promotion, and strive to create a hot brine explosive matrix, tap the resources of people, grasp the jitter, and fight for more bonus opportunities, aiming tiktok sales doubled. Offline snack channels continue to make efforts to accelerate the expansion of chain snack channels such as "wife adult, lock flavor and love snacks"; The channel continues to sink and expand to the rural market, so that Yanjin snacks can be seen everywhere.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. Considering the adjustment of the company's channel structure and the change of the company's cost structure, according to the first quarterly report, we adjusted the profit forecast. We expect the company's revenue in 22-24 years to be RMB 2.849/35.14/4.154 billion respectively, the net profit to be RMB 319409/500 million respectively, and the EPS to be RMB 2.46/3.16/3.87 respectively (the previous time was RMB 2.78/4.31/5.32), corresponding to the current PE to be 27x, 21x and 17x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic continues to spread, the price of raw materials fluctuates, market competition intensifies, and food safety incidents.
