In recent weeks, the macro policy mainly focused on the implementation and implementation of the relevant policies of the central economic work conference, focusing on the implementation of the steady growth policy, which generally belongs to a relatively stable period of policy.
(1) monetary policy. Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said that the total amount of money and credit should grow steadily, the financial structure should be optimized steadily, and the comprehensive financing cost should be reduced steadily. It is estimated that the monetary policy is still stable and slightly loose, but it will not be "flooded". From the perspective of China bond yield and short-term interest rate of money market, the market liquidity is not tight. In terms of risk prevention, the central bank issued macro Prudential policy guidelines (for Trial Implementation), which is conducive to financial stability. The US monetary policy is facing tightening. According to the minutes of the interest rate meeting in December, the contraction may be relatively large in the first half of the year. At present, the US M2 growth rate has fallen.
(2) in terms of China's steady growth, first, the 1.2 trillion yuan of local government special bond funds issued in the fourth quarter of last year fell into specific projects. Second, the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 was issued in advance, and the investment will be made in advance. Third, promote the implementation of projects in the 14th five year plan. Fourth, all localities have accelerated the implementation of projects. It is estimated that it can form a hedge against the downward pressure on the current economy.
(3) there are some highlights in the manufacturing industry. In December, the manufacturing PMI continued to rise, and the prosperity improved for two consecutive months. In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell, but the structure continued to improve, and the profit growth rate of downstream manufacturing industry rebounded. At the policy level, tax reduction and fee reduction continued to be promoted, and personal income tax preferential policies such as one-time bonuses were extended.
(4) in the industry, the double carbon work continues to be promoted. The state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council has prepared and issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of central enterprises and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, which defines the double carbon development goal of Central enterprises. In medicine, the national standing committee will promote the normalization and institutionalization of centralized volume procurement, speed up the expansion, and continuously reduce the price of medicine.
(5) in terms of exports, by joining RCEP, the State takes measures to stabilize foreign trade, which is conducive to the relative stability of exports, but the growth rate is expected to decline. In terms of epidemic situation, in the week of January 7, there were 15.69 million new cases of covid-19 pneumonia in the world, 5.93 million more than last week, far exceeding the previous high.
(6) in the international situation, although the final GDP growth rate of the United States in 2021 increased, it was still lower than expected, the inflationary pressure was still large, the unemployment rate continued to decline, but the number of new non-agricultural employment was lower than expected. Some uncertainties in the international situation need attention.
(7) after the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the A-share market is currently in the correction period, and the styles of large and small plates and high and low P / E ratios have changed. From the historical market, the rise probability in February is the highest in the whole year, and the average increase is the highest in the whole year. You can continue to wait and look for the Spring Festival market. Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, said that we should resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs. The policy is conducive to the smooth operation of the market, and pay attention to periodic fluctuations in operation.
