\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
The performance of 22q1 has been under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic. The company released the annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years, with a revenue of 4.63 billion yuan (YoY + 54.1%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.2 billion yuan (YoY + 64.0%); 22q1’s revenue was 1.41 billion yuan (YoY + 14.1%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 360 million yuan (yoy-13.5%), a year-on-year decline.
The high-grade liquor is growing rapidly and the product structure is optimized. In the 21 year, Baijiu earned 4 billion 620 million yuan (yoy+53.8%), and the sales volume and the ton price changed by +40.3%/+9.6%. By product, the revenue of high-grade wine in the past 21 years was 4.519 billion yuan (YoY + 54.3%), with volume and price increasing by 40.4% and 9.9% respectively, mainly benefiting from the firm implementation of high-end strategy, the rapid growth of Jingtai / zhenniang No. 8 and the iterative upgrading of collection series; The proportion of high-grade wine increased by 0.3pct to 97.8%, and the product structure continued to be optimized; In the past 21 years, the revenue of mid-range liquor reached 102 million yuan (YoY + 34.4%), contributing a certain increment. 22q1, the income of high-end liquor was 1.36 billion yuan (YoY + 12.1%), the growth rate slowed down, and the income of middle-end liquor was 41 million yuan (YoY + 57.1%). 22at the end of Q1, the balance of contract liabilities was 839 million yuan, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year, and the channels maintained their enthusiasm for payment.
The profitability improved in 21 years, and the 22q1 expenses increased, under short-term pressure. The gross profit margin of 21 years was 84.5% (YoY + 0.3pct), of which the gross profit margin of high-grade wine was 85.1% (YoY + 0.3pct), which continued to increase year-on-year; The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio were 26.5% and 6.6% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5pct and 2.7pct, and the cost investment efficiency was improved; Taxes and surcharges accounted for 15.9% (YoY + 0.3pct) of revenue. Overall, the net profit margin of sales in 21 years was 25.9% (YoY + 1.6pct), which maintained an upward trend. 22q1, the gross profit margin is 84.9% (yoy-0.1pct), and the sales expense rate is 29.0% (YoY + 7.3pct), which is expected to be mainly due to the increased investment in publicity activities; Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 sales is 25.6% (yoy-8.2pct).
The high-end strategy is gradually implemented, and the annual goal is expected to be successfully completed. In the 21st year, the company launched a new generation of collection and put forward the “1 + 3 + 5” quality password for the first time. In April 22, a new generation of well platform was officially unveiled, focusing on the 500800 price band with obvious market expansion trend. At the same time, the company will sort out a series of wines below 300 yuan for upgrading, actively explore products with a suggested retail price of more than 1500 yuan, and develop ultra-high-end products such as yuan and Ming 2.0. The marketing side will reform the sale of high-end products, promote the establishment of 25 high-end Baijiu sales companies and optimize the value chain system of high-end products. Affected by the epidemic, the short-term performance of 22q1 is under pressure. However, with the recovery of consumption scene after the epidemic in the future and the implementation of high-end actions in the early stage, the annual target (main business income yoy + 15%; net profit yoy + 15%) is expected to be successfully completed. The price of secondary high-end liquor continues to expand, the short-term fluctuation does not change the long-term trend, and the company is optimistic about the profit growth space of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Reduce the revenue and gross profit margin, and predict that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 2.89 yuan, 3.63 yuan and 4.43 yuan respectively (the original forecast for 22-23 years is 3.55 yuan and 4.46 yuan). In combination with comparable companies, we will give a PE of 31 times in 22 years, with a target price of 89.59 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk warning: product price fluctuation, consumption demand is less than expected, and food safety event risk.
