\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 840 Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) )
Core view
The large amount of fixed assets conversion is superimposed on the depressed pig price, and the short-term pressure on the company's performance is obvious. The company achieved an operating revenue of 8.342 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 5.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company lost 192 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 242.46%; After deducting non profits, the loss was 240 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 633%. In terms of business, the sales volume of slaughtering and meat processing sector rebounded significantly. In 2021, the revenue was 7.948 billion yuan, the sales volume was 418300 tons, and the average price was 19 yuan / kg, with year-on-year changes of - 6.68%, 34.67% and - 39.03% respectively. The revenue of livestock and poultry breeding sector in 2021 was 107 million yuan and the sales volume was 35800 tons, with a year-on-year change of 409.52% and 16.16% respectively.
In 2021, the company's breeding capacity was put into operation, shaping Zhejiang's breeding rookie. The year-end book balance of the company's expendable biological assets in 2021 was 410 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215% (including about 120 million yuan of expendable biological assets); The ending balance of fixed assets was 3.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103% (including about 1.627 billion yuan of fixed assets transferred from internal construction projects in 2021); The book value of productive biological assets at the end of the period was 324 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37% (of which the amount of impairment provision was about 59.72 million yuan). According to the company's announcement, the company's pig production capacity will be accelerated in 2021, with a total of 134700 pigs listed in 2021. It is expected that the number of pigs listed from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.2 million and 2.5 million respectively, with rapid growth and sufficient growth.
In 2022, it will be released and gradually realized, and there is enough space for valuation and repair. At present, the company has built an integrated self breeding capacity of nearly 2.5-2.6 million buildings. According to the marketing of the company in March, the sales of live pigs in March was 82000, with a significant increase month on month (59000) compared with February. The continuous high growth month on month once again proves the breeding capacity of the company. It is expected that about 500000 pigs will be sold in the first half of 2022 and about 700000 pigs in the second half of 2022. The monthly growth of the whole year is expected to maintain a rapid growth. Considering that the pig cycle is expected to reverse before 2023, the average market value of the company's head in 2023 is less than 3000 yuan / head, and there is enough space for valuation and repair.
Building pig breeding has significant advantages, and the excess return of pigs in Zhejiang Province is obvious. The breeding mode of the company is self breeding and self breeding of pigs in buildings. The whole process breeding survival rate is close to 90%, which has significant advantages. With the increase of breeding volume in 2022q1, the breeding cost is expected to decrease significantly. In addition, according to the monthly report published in March, the company's single head sales revenue in March was about 1650 yuan, and given the assumption of 115 kg average weight, it can be calculated that the sales price of the company's commercial pigs was 13-14 yuan / kg, which was significantly higher than muyuan's 11.64 yuan / kg and Wen's 12.17 yuan / kg, and the single head had obvious excess income. In addition, there are almost no free range farmers in Zhejiang, which belongs to a natural breeding epidemic free area and has natural advantages for the prevention and control of African classical swine fever and other diseases. Considering that the company is currently a scarce large-scale breeding listed company in Zhejiang Province, the company's pig production capacity should have a higher head average market value.
Risk tip: uncontrollable epidemic occurred in the breeding process, and the food price rose sharply, increasing the feed cost.
Investment suggestion: building breeding dark horse, maintain the "buy" rating. Considering that the decline of pig price in 2022 is higher than expected and the price of feed raw materials rises strongly, the company's 22-year profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 22-24 years will be 40 / 14.64 / 2.952 billion yuan (it was originally estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent in 22-23 years will be 421 / 1.010 billion yuan), corresponding to the current share price PE of 17.7 / 6.7 / 3.5 X.
