\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 925 Xiamen Intretech Inc(002925) )
Key investment points
21h2 revenue declined under the high base, and some customers
The revenue growth rate of 21h1 / 21h2 company was 114.21% / - 5.46% respectively, which was mainly due to the change in the rhythm of customers' orders under the background of the epidemic (H1 was relatively light and H2 was relatively prosperous in previous years) and the decline in the sales growth rate of some customers represented by Cricut in the second half of the year. According to the top five customers disclosed in the company's annual report, we speculate on the development of various businesses:
(1) innovating consumer electronic products and realizing revenue of 4.305 billion (+ 34.65%) in 21 years; Among them, the household engraving machine and its consumables business achieved a revenue of 3.963 billion (+56.12%). As a product benefiting from the epidemic, crisut achieved a revenue of 1.3 billion US dollars (+36%) in the past 21 years, and the number of community users reached 6.4 million (+48%), creating an ecosystem, and increasing efforts to explore markets outside the United States. Under the high base of 21q3-q4, the growth rate slowed to double digits, and due to the previous full orders and large inventory, the orders of Yingqu were temporarily reduced. We estimate that the income of 21q4-22q1 Yingqu from Cricut decreased by about 40% year-on-year. However, the penetration rate of engraving machine products is low, customers continue to explore new markets, and the long-term growth is still good. The e-cigarette business is expected to be 500600 million (down about 20% year-on-year). Affected by the iteration of new and old products of customer PMI in 21 years, PMI will increase iqos4.5% in 22 years 0 market launch, and the company has the manufacturing capacity of complete machine products from the previous supply of precision plastic parts. According to our communication, the company's 22q1 e-cigarette business has stabilized and rebounded. On the other hand, the company has steadily promoted cooperation with key strategic new customers such as Bosch and Honeywell. Bosch's eBike products are expected to contribute about 100 million revenue in 21 years; And expand TWS earphone business, which is expected to grow rapidly in 22 years.
(2) the business of intelligent control components achieved revenue of 1.079 billion (+ 12.94%) in 21 years, of which the video conference system cooperated by the company and Logitech is expected to grow well, and there is still expected to be double-digit growth under the high base of water-cooling equipment.
(3) automotive electronics achieved a revenue of 236 million (+ 41.81%) in 21 years, mainly due to the rapid growth of automotive seat memory module, skylight control module, electronic anti glare mirror and other products.
(4) the health and environment business achieved a revenue of 647 million (+ 19.15%) in 21 years. In addition to the stable growth of air purifiers, the income of plant planters (for the legalization demand of special cash crops in North America) increased significantly.
(5) revenue from other businesses reached 693 million (+ 93.91%), of which the scale of consumables is about 500 million, which is the main contribution to the growth.
(6) the capacity of Malaysian Industrial Park continues to expand, mainly for the North American market, with a revenue of 2.358 billion in 21 years (accounting for more than 30% of the total revenue).
Raw material price increase + price reduction support customers' impact on gross profit margin, and exchange drag down Q4 profit performance
The comprehensive gross profit margin of 21a company is 27.97% (-5.78pct), which is mainly due to the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction support given to customers during the epidemic; 22q1 gross profit margin 27.64% (- 1.40pct).
The total expense rate of 21a company during the period is 11.19% (-0.67pct), the sales expense rate is 1.27% (-0.29pct), the management + R & D expense rate is 9.47% (-0.28pct), and the expense control is good. During 22q1, the expense rate was 14.27% (+ 4.11pct), the sales expense rate was 1.37% (+ 0.22pct), and the management + R & D expense rate was 12.48% (+ 2.89pct), which was mainly due to the increase of personnel expenses.
21a operating cash flow was 1.017 billion (+ 26.44%), 22q1 operating cash flow was 154 million (- 33.55%); At the end of the year, the company had 1.252 billion (+ 22.56%) of inventory on its books, which was mainly due to the preparation of goods in advance before the price rise of raw materials last year. The inventory on the books of 22q1 company was 1.106 billion (- 12.61%); At the end of the year, the receivables at the end of the year were 1.496 billion (- 19.10%), and the receivables at the end of the year were 1.346 billion (- 14.67%), shortening the collection cycle.
Profit forecast and valuation
Although the company's short-term performance is under pressure, Yingqu adheres to its original intention and outstanding advantages in intelligent manufacturing and enters udm2 In the era of 0, we have increased the layout in the fields of industrial control, vehicle regulation, medical treatment and high-end food. The business territory continues to expand and the long-term growth is still good. We expect the company to achieve a revenue of 8.234/99.49/12.031 billion in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 16.62% / 20.83% / 20.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.27/15.32/18.82 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16.21% / 20.61% / 22.83%. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 13.51x/11.21x/9.12x in 22-24 years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The risk indicates that the overseas epidemic situation is repeated and the business expansion of new customers does not meet expectations
