\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Revenue side: the average price of a single car continues to rise. 1q22’s revenue was 33.62 billion, with a yoy / mom ratio of + 8.0% / – 26.3% respectively. The production and sales of 1q22 company are affected by the lack of core, and the sales volume is 283000, with the same / month on month ratio of – 16.3% / – 28.6% respectively. At present, the orders of main models are 200000 +, and the subsequent sales volume is flexible; The average price of 1q22 single car of the company reached 119000, with a month-on-month increase of + 27000 / + 4000 respectively, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high priced new products such as tank series, Haval beast and Great Wall gun passenger cars and the stability of terminal prices.
Profit side: the gross profit margin rebounded and the net profit margin was significantly repaired month on month. The company’s 1q22 net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.63 billion, the same / month on month ratio was – 0.3% / – 8.3%, the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 1.3 billion, the same / month on month ratio was – 2.4% / + 137.0%, of which the non recurring profit and loss was mainly government subsidy + 800 million and the exchange floating loss was about 400 million. 1q22 company’s non net profit margin was 3.9%, with a month on month ratio of – 0.4% / + 2.7% respectively. Split: 1) gross profit margin rebounded. The gross profit margin of 1q22 was 17.2%, and the same / month on month ratio was + 2.1% / + 1.9% respectively. The stronger gross profit margin of 1q22 was mainly due to the optimization of product structure and the reduction of one-time factors such as 4q21 expense provision; 2) Expense ratio: the company’s 1q22 three fee expense ratio is 7.5%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.0% / + 1.2% respectively. After excluding the RMB 400 million exchange floating loss included in non recurring profit and loss, the three fee expense ratio is expected to be flat month on month. The R & D expense rate was 3.9%, and the same / month on month ratio was + 1.0pct / + 0.4pct respectively. Overall, the recovery of 1q22 deduction of non net profit margin was mainly driven by gross profit margin.
Electric intelligence + globalization, optimistic about long-term growth. 1) The new car cycle continues. The company 1q22 has launched a new Mocha dhtphev, King Kong gun and tank 500. In 2022, we can still look forward to new products such as haver cool dog, Euler lightning cat and tank 700; 2) Electric intelligent fast landing. In terms of batteries, at present, the Jinshan phase I, Jinshan phase II and Maanshan phase I plants of honeycomb energy have achieved mass production, and the Nanjing plant will be put into operation by the end of 2022; In terms of intelligence, mocha dht-phev has realized high-speed scene Noh, and will realize urban road scene Noh in the middle of this year. At the same time, the company will launch the intelligent chassis technology of motion control covering six free dimensions in 2023; 3) Globalization is advancing. The company will make full efforts in the Brazilian market (10 new energy models will be launched within 3 years, and the first model 4q22 will be listed), the Southeast Asian market (Thailand’s sales network will be accelerated in 22 years) and the European market (Wei brand will fully enter the European market).
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 174.39 billion yuan, 207.4 billion yuan and 253.75 billion yuan in 2022, 2023 and 2024, corresponding to net profit attributable to parent company of 9.52 billion yuan, 11.79 billion yuan and 13.97 billion yuan. Calculated by today’s closing price, PE is 23.6 times, 19.1 times and 16.1 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation degree of chip shortage is lower than expected, the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, and the recovery demand of automobile market is lower than expected
