\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 559 Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) )
Events
On April 24, 2022, the company successively received the letter of acceptance from China Innovation Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. and its holding subsidiaries. The winning projects include procurement projects of equipment and production lines in the assembly section, with a total amount of about 1.36 billion yuan, including 470 million yuan of signed contracts.
Investment advice
Winning the 1.36 billion large order of AVIC innovation will continue to benefit from the national production expansion process of AVIC
The 1.36 billion orders won by AVIC this time are Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 430 million orders won in March and another large order after the recent bid of 1.07 billion by Jingke energy. As of April 2022, China Innovation Airlines has planned 10 Chinese industrial bases, including Changzhou, Luoyang, Xiamen, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hefei, Heilongjiang, Guangzhou, Jiangmen and Meishan. According to our preliminary statistics, the total planned new capacity of China Innovation Airlines has exceeded 300gwh since 2021; According to the plan, the capacity of China Innovation airlines will reach 500gwh in 2025 and 1twh in 2030. The company has long-term cooperation with AVIC and has excellent trust relationship. The core products polar ear cutting machine and electric core assembly line occupy a high market share in AVIC and will continue to benefit from the production expansion process of AVIC throughout the country.
The laser automation platform has significant advantages and is expected to continue to extend to the whole line of lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other application fields
At present, the company's main products are polar ear cutting machine and middle cell assembly line in the field of lithium battery, which are highly competitive in the market. The company is expected to give full play to the advantages of its laser automation platform, in addition to the breakthrough in the field of photovoltaic laser equipment. In the field of lithium battery equipment, continuous breakthroughs have been made in the forward and middle segments. The growth space is further opened by cutting and stacking integrated machine, winding and cutting integrated machine and other equipment.
The company has three major production bases in Changzhou, Jiangmen and Shenzhen. It is expected that the annual output value will reach about 10 billion yuan by the end of this year. It is expected that the number of new orders signed by the company in 2022 will still nearly double on the basis of 2021. We believe that the overall scale effect of the company will be more significant in 2022, driving the further improvement of gross profit margin and net profit margin. The annual net profit margin is expected to reach more than 9%, and the performance is highly uncertain.
In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 110% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy reached 22%
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in March 2022, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile production and sales completed 465000 and 484000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 110% and a month-on-month increase of 26% and 44%. The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 22%, and the penetration rate continued to increase. From January to March 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.257 million, with a year-on-year increase of 140%, the market share reached 19.3%, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly.
Profit forecast and Valuation: net profit cagr110% from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating
It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.97/37.4/6.75 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 49% / 89% / 81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 110 / 34 / 720 million, with a year-on-year increase of 39% / 213% / 113%, corresponding to pe117 / 37 / 17 times. The compound growth rate of the company's performance from 2021 to 2023 was 110%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: competition intensifies, profitability is lower than expected, and the growth rate of new orders in lithium battery equipment industry declines
