The production and sales data of the Federation of passenger cars in December disclosed that in December, the output of narrow passenger cars (cars / SUVs / MPVS) in China increased by 7.2% / 10.6% to 2.466 million vehicles (the output increased by 7.7% to 20.951 million vehicles in 2021), and the wholesale sales increased by 2.3% / 10.0% to 2.366 million vehicles (the wholesale sales increased by 6.7% to 21.098 million vehicles in 2021), Retail sales decreased by 7.9% year-on-year / increased by 15.9% month on month to 2.105 million vehicles (retail sales increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 2014.6 million vehicles in 2021). According to our judgment, China’s passenger car market 1) saw double-digit growth in production and sales in December, mainly due to the easing of chip shortage; 2) The year-on-year growth rate of wholesale / retail in 2021 was 6.7% / 4.4%, which fell within the range of 4% – 7% predicted by us, in line with expectations.
In 2021, there were 3.31 million new energy passenger vehicles wholesale and nearly 2.99 million retail: in December, the output of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 140.2% / 11.6% to 486000 (the output in 2021 increased by 190.0% to 3308000), The wholesale sales volume increased by 138.9% / 17.8% to 505000 vehicles on a month on month basis (the wholesale penetration rate increased by 12.2pcts / 1.4pcts to 21.3% on a month on month basis, and the wholesale sales volume increased by 181.0% to 3312000 vehicles in 2021, corresponding to a penetration rate of about 15.7%), Retail sales increased by 128.8% / 25.4% to 475000 vehicles on a month on month basis (retail penetration increased by 13.6pcts / 1.8pcts to 22.6% on a month on month basis, and retail sales increased by 169.1% to 2989000 vehicles in 2021, corresponding to a penetration rate of about 14.8%). According to our judgment, the wholesale and retail penetration of new energy passenger vehicles continued to improve in December, mainly due to 1) the pull of independent brands (accounting for about 73.5% / 54.5% of the wholesale / retail increment of new energy passenger vehicles in December respectively); 2) Tesla‘s exports fell sharply / retail sales increased by 122% month on month to 71000 vehicles (Tesla accounted for about 40.5% of the retail increment of new energy passenger vehicles in December, which is expected to drive the retail penetration rate of nearly 1.9 PCTs in December).
Middle and low-end and high-end pure electric continued to strengthen, Byd Company Limited(002594) driving plug-in and hybrid sales: judging from the separation of wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December, 1) the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands is about 35.2% (vs. luxury cars / mainstream joint ventures are about 27.2% / 3.7% respectively). 2) The total proportion of pure electric vehicles was 83.8% to 423000 (a month on month increase of 137.9% / 23.1% respectively); Among them, A00 and class B pure electric account for about 33% / 27% respectively (vs. class a pure electric accounts for about 25%). 3) The total proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles is 16.2% to 82000 (a year-on-year increase of 143.9% / a month on month decrease of 3.6%), of which Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid vehicles account for about 45000 (plug-in hybrid vehicles account for nearly 55%).
Investment suggestion: we continue to be optimistic about the demand release prospect of new energy vehicles (especially the sales climbing trend of A00 / high-end pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles). It is expected that vehicle enterprises are expected to hedge policy fluctuations by retaining orders and time limited price protection. It is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the leading factors in the sales climbing. We expect that there will be 5-5.5 million Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e, and we are optimistic about car companies with strong model product cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Replenishment is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The launch and climbing of new models are less than expected; The cost control is less than expected, the profit falls, the epidemic situation repeats, and the market risk.
