\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 38 Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) )
Core view
The results of the fourth quarter of 21 and the first quarter of 22 were slightly pressured by overseas business and equity incentive expenses. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.205 billion yuan (year-on-year + 43%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 145 million yuan (year-on-year - 7.67%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 153 million yuan (year-on-year + 27%); 21q4 company's revenue was 281 million yuan (year-on-year + 13.26%, month on month - 16%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 21 million yuan (year-on-year - 42.54%, month on month - 69%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 15 million yuan (year-on-year - 64%); 22q1 company achieved revenue of 270 million yuan (YoY - 4.05%), net profit attributable to parent company of 42 million yuan (YoY + 44%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 31 million yuan (YoY - 31%) and EBITDA of 1.5% 200 million yuan (year-on-year + 8.9%).
The shelf rate of the data center has increased steadily, and the data center under construction has been gradually delivered. By the end of 2021, the company had about 20000 cabinets in stock, an increase of 24% over last year, and the use area of the computer room exceeded 125000 m2. The total planning of the new data center project is about 25000 standard cabinets, of which 10000 / 12000 / 3300 / 22000 cabinets are planned to be built in Nansha, Guangzhou, Wuqing, Tianjin, Kunming, Yunnan and Nanchang, Jiangxi respectively. In terms of delivery rhythm, we expect that the cumulative total number of cabinets can exceed 40000 by the end of 2022 and continue to contribute to performance increment. The short-term disturbance of overseas business is expected to be gradually reversed in 2022. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, geopolitics and other factors, the IDC business in the overseas market of the company was greatly impacted in 2021, especially in the second half of the year. The expansion activities in the new regional market were limited, and the income and profit of the original business also decreased significantly due to the gradual adjustment of customer business. The company strives to gradually reverse the trend by opening flow, saving resources and expanding new customers. The net profit decreased slightly due to the impact of equity incentive expenses and the adjustment of leasing standards. In 2021, the company's expenses for implementing the restricted stock incentive plan increased by 18 million yuan. The holding of Amethystum Storage Technology Co.Ltd(688086) shares affected the investment income of - 19 million yuan (compared with + 35 million yuan in the same period last year). Under the adjustment of the new leasing standards, the cost increased by 14 million yuan, and the net profit decreased in 2021 under the comprehensive impact.
Actively respond to the dual carbon policy and promote the construction of data center + distributed photovoltaic. The company has actively tried the data center + distributed photovoltaic pilot project, and has completed its own IDC distributed photovoltaic power generation projects such as Langfang xunyun data center. By the end of 2021, 35 development projects have been signed in Guangdong, Guangxi and Jiangxi, with a total installed capacity of nearly 100MW, and participated in the preparation of technical requirements for photovoltaic grid connection of data center.
Risk tip: the capital expenditure of cloud manufacturers has declined; Under the influence of the epidemic, the delivery of the computer room was less than expected; Price competition.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the performance flexibility brought by IDC delivery and maintain the "buy" rating.
Considering the decline of overseas business in the first quarter and the impact of the epidemic on the rhythm of customers' listing to a certain extent, we lowered our profit forecast. Originally, it was expected that the revenue in 20222023 would be 1.96 billion yuan and the net profit would be 210 / 320 million yuan. After adjustment, it is expected that the company's revenue in 20222024 would be 100 million yuan, 17 / 25 / 33 billion yuan (year-on-year + 41% / 47% / 34%), and the net profit attributable to the parent would be 200 / 28 / 380 million yuan (year-on-year + 35% / 44% / 36%), and the current share price corresponds to 34 / 24 / 17 times of PE, Optimistic about the company's long-term performance flexibility and maintain the "buy" rating.
