\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: on April 22, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the total operating revenue was 33.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.04%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.634 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.34%.
The gross profit margin increased significantly, and R & D investment increased to support products. The epidemic superimposed the impact of core shortage. In 2022q1, the company’s sales volume was -16.32% year-on-year. Under this background, the revenue was +8.04% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased to 17.18%, year-on-year +2.06pct/ month on month +1.88pct. The improvement of revenue and gross profit margin was mainly due to: 1) the average price of single vehicle continued to increase with the support of brand renewal and upward strategy; 2) The one-time accrued expenses decreased month on month. In terms of expense rate, the three fees in 2022q1 are 7.5% in total, with a year-on-year increase of + 2pct; Among them, the sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 3.13% / 3.50% / 3.94% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.55 / + 1.37 / + 1.02pct. The increase in the management expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in equity incentive expenses, and the increase in the R & D expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in R & D investment in smart Internet and new energy. In terms of profit, affected by the increase of three fees, the net profit of 2022q1 was – 0.34% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.303 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.41%. The increase of non recurring profit and loss was mainly due to: 1) the decrease of government subsidies; 2) Exchange floating losses caused by foreign exchange fluctuations; 3) Increase in profit or loss from changes in fair value. With the gradual recovery of chip supply, Q2 production capacity is expected to be released, the scale effect will be enhanced, and the company’s performance and profitability are expected to be further improved.
The sales volume structure continued to improve, and the single vehicle revenue in 2022q1 was + 29% year-on-year. In 2022q1, the company achieved a total sales volume of 2835000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.32%. Haval / tank / wey / Euler / Great Wall pickup trucks sold 16.7/2.6/1.4/3.443000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.1% / + 79.8% / + 22.3% / + 10.0% / – 27.7%. By 2022q1, the cumulative sales volume of tank 300 had exceeded 110000; Euler good cat sold 19500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 240%. Thanks to the hot sales of high priced models such as tank 300 / Harvard first love / Harvard Beast / Great Wall gun, the company’s sales structure was further improved. In 2022q1, the single vehicle revenue reached 118600 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.12% / month on month increase of + 3.21%; The profit of single vehicle reached 5800 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.10% / + 8.74%. In 2022, Harvey cool dog, tank 700 / 800, Euler ballet cat / Euler punk cat / Euler lightning cat, salon mecha dragon and other products are expected to be listed one after another. With the gradual implementation of high-end models of various brands, the profitability is expected to be further enhanced.
Intelligent technology enables the brand to move up, and the global layout is accelerated. In 2022q1, lemon, tank and coffee intelligent technology brands accounted for 70.4%. Relying on the modular platform to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the iteration of the company’s models is accelerated. At present, the proportion of intelligent models of the company has increased to 84.5%, and the monthly carrying growth rate of millipore hpilot in 2022q1 has exceeded 200%. In the future, with the gradual boarding of “millipore City Noh version”, the development of intelligent technology will further enable the brand to move up. In terms of global layout, the company accelerated its layout in Brazil, Southeast Asia, Western Europe and other places. At present, the company has taken over the factory in irama polis, Brazil, and is expected to be put into operation in 2023; In the Southeast Asian market, the company actively accelerated the layout of “4 + 4 ASEAN strategy”; In addition, the company actively promotes the development of wey brand in Europe. Driven by intelligence and globalization, the company has ushered in a new stage of rapid development.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 95.49/156.57/18.878 billion respectively, corresponding to 24 / 14 / 12 times of the current share price PE. Optimistic about the development of electric intelligence and multi brand strategy of the company, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
