Aviation: from mid November 2021 to now, China’s epidemic prevention and control situation has become more stringent. It is expected that civil aviation transportation will still be impacted repeatedly in the short term, and the recovery pace will slow down significantly. Referring to the epidemic development in the first half of 2021, we believe that at the end of the first quarter of 2022, with the increase of temperature and the improvement of China’s national defense control situation, China’s airline demand is expected to improve, It is recommended to continuously track the development of the epidemic situation.
Airports: under the premise of continuous control of international routes, the performance of airports with relatively low proportion of international routes before the epidemic is relatively well repaired. Considering the strong demand for Chinese routes and air cargo in Shenzhen, the opening of superimposed satellite hall will open a new round of growth cycle, so Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) is recommended.
Logistics & Express: at the end of 2021, the overall growth rate of the logistics industry decreased compared with that at the beginning of the year, but it is still better than that in the same period before the epidemic, and it is still in the boom range. Among them, the express industry continues to benefit from the rapid growth of online consumption. With the government’s attention to the healthy development of the express industry, the extremely low price competition situation has ended, The unit price of medium and low-end Express has an obvious upward trend. We believe that the express industry will enter a competitive stage focusing on service quality and comprehensive logistics capability. We recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) .
Risk tips: 1) industry policy: the adjustment and change of national macro-control policy and tax policy will directly or indirectly affect income and cost; 2) Macroeconomic: the transportation industry mainly relies on the overall economic environment, so the current macroeconomic environment may lead to changes in market demand and affect the profitability; 3) Safety accidents: safety accidents will cause risks such as traffic obstruction, property loss and casualties, strengthen regulatory measures and affect consumer confidence; 4) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations: in the future, if the epidemic spread exceeded expectations, the transportation demand continued to be depressed, and the government control measures continued for a long time, it will have a great impact on the industry.
