Events
According to China Energy News: in 2022, the speed of UHV projects will be increased after approval (“3 direct and 2 direct” projects to be approved are expected to be all approved), and the State Grid plans to start 13 UHV lines of “10 direct and 3 direct”. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid planned to build the “24 AC and 14 DC” UHV project, involving more than 30000 kilometers of lines, 340 million KVA transformation capacity and a total investment of 380 billion yuan.
New energy infrastructure is an excellent investment direction for steady growth
Under the pressure of stable macroeconomic growth this year, new energy infrastructure is one of the investment directions with the highest long-term socio-economic benefits. We believe that it is possible to start more high-voltage line construction this year (including the “2 direct and 3 AC” UHV project under construction). If the construction can be approved in advance, The performance of core equipment suppliers and construction enterprises is expected to be fulfilled in advance.
The number of routes planned and put into operation in the 14th five year plan may exceed expectations
So far, the State Grid has put into operation 14 DC UHV (excluding Chongqing Hubei back-to-back ± 420 and Zhangbei ± 500kV flexible direct) and 14 AC UHV. A total of 21 UHV (11 DC + 10 AC) are put into operation in the 13th five state grid. At present, there are “8 direct and 7 AC” UHV planned stock projects (including 12 restart projects in 2018 and 3 new plans for steady growth in 2020). Previously, we expected that in the context of double carbon, the new 200GW Fengguang large base project in the 14th five year plan and the export of Southwest hydropower base are expected to drive the new planning demand of more than 10-15 UHV lines, and the total planned number of lines in the 14th five year plan is expected to exceed 25-30. If 38 lines are planned to be constructed in the 14th five year plan, although ring network supporting lines may be included, the total number of construction lines and investment scale still exceed expectations, and the construction prosperity (the probability of all planned lines will be started) and the number of lines put into operation (a total of 30 80% lines will be put into operation) exceed the 13th five year plan.
Reiterate the view that the number may indeed exceed expectations, and the greater probability of DC is more than AC
① there are 28 UHV lines built by the State Grid and 38 “5 direct and 5 AC” projects to be approved and under construction. The maximum power capacity of the projects is about 300gw (one 8GW, considering the bundling of thermal power, the 8GW capacity is up to 5GW of new energy, and the actual new energy power is about 200GW). The load rate of the existing UHV lines will increase rapidly. The current 15 planned lines in the 14th five year plan are certainly not enough, There must be new plans! ② For large-scale resource allocation, DC has the lowest loss and the highest efficiency, and flexible and direct have obvious technical advantages in back-to-back interconnection and multi terminal new energy delivery. Therefore, the proportion of DC and AC mentioned in the media needs to be discussed.
UHV focuses on the company
1) recommend energy information technology leader Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (power Internet of things + DC UHV Shuanglong) in the long-term value dimension
2) UHV main equipment suppliers: Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , China Xd Electric Co.Ltd(601179) , Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.Ltd(600550) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , etc
3) power semiconductors such as IGBT: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187)
4) power EPC: Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Fujian Yongfu Power Engineering Co.Ltd(300712) etc
Risk tips
The power grid investment in the 14th five year plan is less than expected; UHV approval progress is less than expected, etc
