\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 31.997 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of + 48.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.39%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 2.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.44%.
Comments:
Orderly release of production capacity, steady revenue growth, cost disturbance and pressure on Q4 profit side. Benefiting from the orderly release of the company’s production capacity, the annual sales volume of pulp / paper products increased from + 10.31% / + 37.63% to 107523 million tons respectively year-on-year, driving the steady growth of the company’s revenue side. From a single quarter, the company’s Q4 achieved a revenue of 8.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.19%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 66.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 211 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of – 64.62%. We believe that: (1) due to the weak downstream demand, the paper price and pulp price of Q4 terminal are still low; (2) The pressure of high cost in the early stage gradually appears; (3) Energy costs rose sharply and coal prices were at a high level, putting pressure on the company’s Q4 profit side.
The gross profit margin gradually bottomed out, the effect of expense control was prominent, and the expense rate fell during the period. With the cost pressure gradually reflected in the statements, the gross profit margin of q1-4 of the company was 23.44% / 22.14% / 14.42% / 9.90% respectively. By Q4, the gross profit margin of the company in a single quarter had reached the historical bottom range, which comprehensively affected the annual gross profit margin of the company from – 2.07pcts to 17.37% year-on-year. During the period, the expense rate was – 1.46 PCTs to 6.42% year-on-year, of which the sales expense rate was – 0.05 PCTs to 0.43%, the management and R & D expense rate was – 0.7 PCTs to 4.22%, and the financial expense rate was – 0.7 PCTs to 1.77%, driving the annual net interest rate to + 0.19 PCTs to 9.27% year-on-year.
The growth rate of box board paper was bright, and the gross profit margin of dissolved pulp increased significantly. In terms of paper products, cultural paper / coated paper / household paper / coated base paper / box board paper contributed 86.71/40.99/8.57/16.10/9.87 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.29% / + 16.80% / + 9.01% / + 94.98% / + 136.59% respectively. In terms of pulp, chemical mechanical pulp / dissolved pulp / chemical pulp achieved revenue of RMB 1.827/32.55/1.500 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.25% / + 49.46% / + 56.26% respectively. The profit rate of uncoated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated kraft paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper / coated paper /.
Investment suggestion: the profit hit the bottom and the rebound is expected. We are still optimistic about the long-term growth ability of the leading paper industry. Optimistic about the company’s profitability rebounded with the recovery of paper prices and the fall of energy costs. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.27/36.2/4.03 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value PE of 10 / 9 / 8x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, sluggish demand, repeated epidemics and sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
