\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Investment logic
I what is Maotai? “I Maotai” is positioned as a digital marketing platform produced by shares. It realizes the structure of TOC by “purchasing wine online and picking up goods nearby”. It is a new attempt for the company to practice new retail and supplement the offline circulation channels. During the current trial operation, the platform has launched four products, including rare Maotai. It is more fair for consumers to apply for purchase at the guide price. The increase of goods source from direct / exclusive stores is expected to improve the coverage of subsequent products and channels.
I what is the difference between Maotai and Maotai cloud commerce? Specifically, 1) adopt the purchase mode rather than the rush purchase mode. The average purchase success rate of each product in the first 10 days of the launch is about 0.02% ~ 0.66%, and the scalping is weakened by combining lottery and notarization. 2) The degree of digitization is stronger. Maotai cultural marketing is strengthened through product drainage. At present, the number of registered users has exceeded 10 million. 3) Centralize the control power, and the joint-stock company controls the authority of product launch and approval, which is more fair; It complements the offline direct selling system, and the profits belong to shares. With the improvement of the company’s market price control ability, it is suggested to pay attention to the logic of channel profit return.
Through I Maotai, what kind of plan does it reflect? Maotai is essentially a link in the market-oriented reform. 1) On the channel side, the revenue of 21q4 direct sales channel accounts for 30%, and the acceleration trend is obvious; Considering the large-scale non-standard and I Maotai operation of 22q1 company in direct sales channels, it is expected that the channel elasticity will continue to be released. 2) On the product side, the company has taken measures such as raising prices, releasing new products and reducing the SKU of series wine. The product matrix has been improved day by day, which can better meet the needs of consumers at all levels. We believe that the essence of market-oriented reform is to make the market price of Maotai liquor closer to the actual supply and demand, squeeze out the water of irrational speculation and reflect the reasonable value.
The moat has many long-term brand drivers. In the long run, the company’s brand strength + product strength is prominent, and the gap between supply and demand can be seen from the current purchase application. In combination with the increase of Maotai base liquor production capacity in 18 years (with an increase of 16%), the overall logic of simultaneous increase in volume and price is strong. During the “14th five year plan” period, the group level development goal focuses on double doubling (compound growth rate of about 15%). We expect that the 22-year planning goal can be completed with high quality and calmly. It is suggested to grasp the Growth Logic of the company’s product matrix optimization + marketing system reform + corporate governance improvement.
Investment advice
As a leading Baijiu company, the company has strong certainty. We expect the company’s revenue to increase by 17% / 16% / 16% in 22-24 years, corresponding to a revenue of 1280 / 1486 / 172 billion yuan; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 18% / 17% / 17%, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 61.9/72.7/84.8 billion; EPS is 49.31/57.87/67.54 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE is 36 / 31 / 26x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, continuous and repeated epidemic risk, policy risk and food safety risk.
