1.1 economic environment
(I) after the covid-19 epidemic, China's economic recovery is leading and still faces uncertainties such as global inflation
After the epidemic, China's economic recovery leads the world, and the demand recovery trend continues in 2021. The epidemic of covid-19 pneumonia has had a great impact on the world economic development, and the global economic recession is inevitable. With strong epidemic prevention measures, China has quickly returned to work and production, becoming the only major economy with positive growth in 2020. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP will reach 101.6 trillion yuan in 2020, achieving a positive growth of 2.3%, accounting for more than 17% of the world economy, ranking second in the world. In 2021, China's demand continued to recover, and China's consumption potential was further released, becoming the driving force driving economic growth. Under the "double cycle" logic, the logic of China's supply advantage to fill the overseas gap and order transfer will continue to be strengthened, and exports will maintain rapid growth. According to the forecast data of the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) in December 2020, China's contribution to global economic growth will exceed one third in 2021.
The imbalance of global economic recovery has become increasingly prominent, leading to global inflation expectations. With the mass vaccination of vaccines in the United States, Europe and Japan and Biden's infrastructure stimulus plan of up to $3 trillion in 2021, it is expected to usher in the recovery of the global economy. However, at present, the effectiveness of vaccination and epidemic prevention and control varies greatly among countries, and the macro policies and market repair capabilities are also different. China is at the inflection point of the liquidity cycle. With the rise of inflation expectations, the economy returns to the level of potential growth rate, China's monetary policy is moving towards normalization, and structural credit policies for local bonds and real estate are tightened. The European and American economies have just come out of the trough, and there is still a strong demand to stimulate the economy. Therefore, China is facing the global inflation expectation caused by the proliferation of dollar liquidity. At present, the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic is still spreading all over the world, and the epidemic situation in many places has rebounded, further increasing the uncertainty of economic recovery.
(II) Sino US trade frictions tend to be long-term, and Sino US relations will ease up in the short term
In August 2017, the United States announced that it had officially launched a "301 investigation" against China, resulting in the outbreak of Sino US trade frictions. After several rounds of negotiations and continuous consultations between the two sides, the United States announced in July 2019 that it would exempt 110 kinds of high tariffs on Chinese imports. In January 2020, China and the United States signed the "China US phase I economic and trade agreement", and the trade friction between China and the United States, which has lasted for nearly two years, has temporarily come to an end. However, as the covid-19 epidemic spread and the epidemic in the United States got out of control, the Sino US trade conflict heated up again. In June 2020, the national security law of Hong Kong was passed and implemented. The United States announced sanctions against Hong Kong, suspended preferential treatment regulations for Hong Kong, and controlled the export of defense equipment and related technologies to Hong Kong. Before that, the United States also passed the Hong Kong autonomy act, which imposed visa and financial sanctions on officials and financial institutions who implemented the Hong Kong version of the national security law. Since Biden took office in January 2021, the United States has imposed more than three sanctions on Chinese enterprises and individuals, amounting to hundreds. In April 2021, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the "strategic competition act of 2021", which means that the formation and implementation of the U.S. consensus on strategic competition with China will mobilize all strategic, economic and diplomatic tools to compete with China. In July 2021, during the China US Tianjin talks, China made clear three bottom lines to the United States and put forward two lists. It also obtained an overall judgment on the China us contact, which will help to strive for the healthy development of China US relations in the next stage.
(III) against the background of weak economic recovery, China adheres to an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy
Active fiscal policies should improve quality, increase efficiency and be more sustainable. Since February 2020, China has introduced a package of policies and measures such as expanding the fiscal deficit, issuing special anti epidemic bonds and expanding the scale of new special bonds of local governments, which not only provide strong support for combating the epidemic, but also win the initiative for restoring the economy. In December 2020, the national financial work video conference proposed that in 2021, we should accurately and effectively implement active financial policies and promote economic operation to remain within a reasonable range; Firmly grasp the main line of supply side structural reform, pay attention to demand side management, and take the first step in building a new development pattern. In March 2021, the two sessions of the National People's Congress put forward the expected goal of "China's GDP growth of more than 6%. This year, we should maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies, and improve the quality, efficiency and sustainability of active fiscal policies.
A prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate. Since the outbreak, the central banks of the United States and other major developed economies have generally reiterated their stance of maintaining loose monetary policy; Most emerging economies still maintain a loose stance, and some tighten monetary policy to cope with marginal pressures such as inflation; China is one of the few major economies that implement normal monetary policy. In February 2021, the central bank proposed that "the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, adhere to the word of stability, do not make sharp turns, and deal with the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention". In May 2021, the central bank proposed to "put serving the real economy in a more prominent position and cherish the normal monetary policy space". At the same time, it is required to "actively use tools such as supporting agriculture and supporting small loans to guide financial institutions to increase their support for key areas and weak links of the national economy such as small and micro enterprises, private enterprises, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, poverty alleviation and so on".
(IV) the "double cycle" strategy and the optimization and reform of supply and demand structure are strong supports for achieving economic growth
Accelerate the construction of a new development pattern of "double circulation". At present, China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with China's big cycle as the main body and China's international double cycle promoting each other, and steadily promoting the "two new and one heavy" infrastructure investment. The purpose is to hedge the pressure of anti globalization by giving full play to China's super large-scale market advantages and domestic demand potential, enhance the attractiveness of the Chinese market by further opening up, and make better use of the international and Chinese markets Two resources. In November 2020, China and other 15 countries officially signed the "regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP)", which is an important measure for China to expand its opening to the outside world and accelerate the construction of a double cycle pattern. With the high-level opening of China's finance, China's comparative advantage in the epidemic era will attract the long-term trend of international capital inflow.
Expand domestic demand and promote the optimization and reform of the supply and demand structure. By promoting the benign growth and optimization of the supply side, enhance the basic role of consumption in economic growth, especially accelerate the sinking of the focus of consumption upgrading to low-line cities and rural areas, so as to realize the import substitution of consumer goods. The first demand side reform was proposed at the 2020 central economic working conference. In the future, manufacturing and consumption will take over traditional investment and external demand as the main driving force of economic recovery, especially healthy economy and live delivery will generate new economic momentum. Nowadays, the pulling effect of China's consumption on the economy is gradually increasing. As the second largest consumer country in the world, the gap between China and the first largest consumer country, the United States, is also narrowing.
China's Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and demand scale maintained steady growth. At present, the coverage rate of improved varieties of crops in China has stabilized at more than 96%, the two major rations crop varieties of rice and wheat have achieved complete self-sufficiency, the output of fruits, vegetables, tea, meat, eggs and fish has steadily ranked first in the world, the production capacity of pigs has accelerated recovery, and the import and export scale of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) continues to expand.
In 2020, China's total grain output will reach 669.49 million tons, a new record high and stable at more than 650 million tons for six consecutive years. For the first time, grain output in 2021 was included in the macro-economic control target, and it was clearly proposed that the annual grain output should be maintained at more than 1.3 trillion Jin.
During the epidemic period, China carried out the work of stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring supply, timely established Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production and market operation scheduling mechanism, gave full play to the role of circulation enterprises and e-commerce platforms, and provided a solid material guarantee for the fight against epidemic. With the gradual restoration of economic and social order, the decline of household consumption expenditure narrowed quarter by quarter, showing a sustained recovery trend. In 2020, consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) producer prices rose by 15.0%.
(V) overall development environment of China's equity investment market
With the rise of emerging technologies such as mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, big data and the Internet of things, the implementation of the strategy of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" and supply side structural reform, the continuous improvement of China's economic openness and the gradual deepening of financial market reform, China's equity investment market has expanded at a high speed, and with its excellent value discovery ability and financing support ability for innovative enterprises, We will play an active role in promoting the upgrading of traditional competitive enterprises and industries and the adjustment of the national economic structure. According to the policy report of the central bank, at the end of November 2021, the stock of social financing scale was 311.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. On the whole, the growth of social financing scale remained stable, and stock financing increased more year-on-year.
Since the release and implementation of the "new asset management regulations" in 2018, with the escalation and spread of Sino US friction and the impact of the global covid-19 epidemic, the total amount of newly raised funds in China's equity investment market has decreased year-on-year. According to the data of pedatamax of Qingke Research Center, the total amount of newly raised funds in China's equity investment market in 2020 was RMB 11972 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; The newly raised amount of foreign currency funds was about 188.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%. Among the newly raised RMB Fund LP in 2020, non listed enterprises, government agencies / government investment platforms, wealthy families and individuals are the three categories with the highest amount of investment.
With the gradual return to normal of social economy and equity investment activities, the equity investment market has obviously warmed up in the second half of 2020. The themes of "rejuvenating the country through science and technology", "import substitution" and "just consumption demand" and the investment heat in Internet it, biomedicine and intelligent manufacturing are rising. According to the data of pedatamax of Qingke Research Center, the total investment in China's equity investment market in 2020 was 887.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, slightly warming up; The number of investment cases reached 7559, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, narrowing the decline. Investment institutions have obvious risk aversion and tend to mature enterprises in the middle and later stages with clear profit model and quick income effect.
According to the data of the first three quarters of 2021, the overall performance of China's equity investment market is active, raised investment has entered the "trillion" era again, large-scale industrial investment and M & A investment occur frequently, and scientific and technological innovation fields such as advanced manufacturing, new energy, semiconductor and medical health have become hot industries.
According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the scale of agricultural and rural investment has continued to expand since 2020. Based on the year-on-year growth of 19.5% in 2020, the fixed asset investment in the primary industry has increased by 35.5% year-on-year in the first four months of 2021, a record high. According to the data of pedatamax of Zero2IPO Research Center, from 2016 to 2021q1, China's agricultural industry disclosed 1578 investment events, including 1551 events, with a total investment amount of RMB 2009 billion. On the whole, the number of disclosed investment events in China's agricultural industry showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the disclosed investment amount showed a fluctuating upward trend, which was mainly affected by the significant increase in the listed fixed increase amount in feed, animal husbandry, meat products and other subdivided fields. From 2016 to 2021q1, equity investment in China's agricultural industry focused on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) circulation, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and animal husbandry, mainly in Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shanghai.
With the launch of the science and innovation board in 2019 and the gem and registration system in 2020, the operation cycle of private equity investment funds has been shortened, and the exit path is more certain. The number of IPOs of invested enterprises in the whole market will usher in explosive growth in 2020. The 2020 central economic work conference set the development direction of the capital market, that is, to promote the healthy development of the capital market and improve the quality of listed companies. According to the data of pedatamax of Zero2IPO Research Center, there were 3842 exits in China's equity investment market in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, including 2434 IPOs of invested enterprises, with a year-on-year increase of 54.7%. In the first three quarters of 2021, the registration system maintained a stable operation, with 1591 IPOs of invested enterprises, including 437 on the gem and 776 on the science and innovation board, accounting for 76.2% of the total IPOs of invested enterprises. In addition, in order to support the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises and deepen the reform of the new third board, the Beijing stock exchange was officially incorporated on September 3, 2021, and the IPO of Chinese enterprises may usher in a new stage of development.
