Power investment energy ( Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) )
Event: the company released its annual performance report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 24.649 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 22.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.92%, and the basic earnings per share was 1.85 yuan, an increase of 71.30% over the same period last year.
Rising coal prices drive corporate profits. In 2021, the coal sector achieved an operating revenue of 7.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.45%, and an operating profit of 3.551 billion yuan (11.52%). In terms of output, the raw coal output was 459822 million tons (- 0.02%); In terms of sales volume, the company actually sold 460369 million tons (0.41%) of commercial coal in 2021. In terms of sales unit price, the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal is 162.31 yuan / ton (12.99%). In terms of cost, the cost of commercial coal produced by the company was 85.52 yuan / ton (15.27%), with a year-on-year increase of 11.33 yuan / ton. The company’s gross profit per ton of commercial coal was 77 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 10.57% and a gross profit margin of 47.31% (a decrease of 1.04 percentage points). The increase in corporate profits in the coal sector was mainly caused by the rise in sales prices.
The volume and price of the power sector rose simultaneously, and new energy boosted the development of a new stage. In 2021, the operating revenue of the company’s power sector was 2.274 billion yuan (16.74%), and the operating profit was 706 million yuan (15.46%). The company generated 7.656 billion kWh (10.60%), actually sold 6.889 billion kWh (10.62%), the price of kWh was 0.33 yuan (5.5%), the power generation cost was 0.23 yuan / kWh (6.2%), and the gross profit margin of power sector was 31.23% (reduced by 0.46 percentage points). The company has put into operation new energy power generation with an installed capacity of 1.56 million KW. By the end of the 14th five year plan, the company plans to have more than 7 million kw of new energy power generation, and the proportion of green power will be further increased.
The price of electrolytic aluminum rises and the profit is expected to increase. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue of electrolytic aluminum segment was 14.437 billion yuan (28.89%), accounting for 58.57% of the operating revenue, the operating cost was 10.673 billion yuan (18.55%), and the operating profit was 3.763 billion yuan (71.23%). The actual production of electrolytic aluminum is 878700 tons (- 3.83%), the actual sales of electrolytic aluminum is 880300 tons (- 3.46%), the sales unit price is 16400 yuan / ton (33.52%), the production cost is 12125 yuan / ton (22.81%), and the comprehensive gross profit margin of the sector is 26.07% (increased by 6.45 percentage points). In 2021, China’s energy consumption double control and power restriction policies led to a large-scale reduction in electrolytic aluminum production and the postponement of new production. During the reporting period, the output of electrolytic aluminum was limited. The output is expected to recover in 2022, and the industry will continue its high boom. The company has formed a coal, electricity and aluminum industry chain in Huolinhe area, with obvious competitive advantages in production cost and sales transportation distance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 5.484/58.89/6.181 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 6.1/5.6/5.4 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: coal prices fell more than expected, the growth of thermal power generation was blocked, and the price of electrolytic aluminum fell.
