\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 800 Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) )
Recommendation logic: 1. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise. The passenger Association expects that it will reach 25% in 2022, and the value of new energy single vehicle connectors will increase three times. In the future, the increase of downstream customer demand will continue to lead to the increase of the company's sales volume; 2. The construction of 5g base stations is stable. The value of microwave RF connectors for single base stations exceeds 2500 yuan. The board to board RF connectors developed by the company cover nearly 20% of the construction needs of 5g base stations in China; 3. The company has continuously accumulated high-quality customers in two major fields, established long-term and stable strategic cooperation relations with Zte Corporation(000063) , Nokia, velai automobile and American T company, and continued to expand the production capacity of new energy and communication connectors through IPO and fixed growth plan.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the contribution of high-voltage connectors increased. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market is growing rapidly. The passenger Federation expects that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 25% in 2022, and the value of single vehicle connector of new energy passenger vehicles will be more than three times higher than that of fuel vehicles. The demand growth of downstream new energy vehicles is expected to drive the scale of China's automobile connector market, which is expected to reach US $4.47 billion in 2025. The company's R & D revenue of high-voltage current connector accounted for 77.8% of the company's main revenue in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 131.8%.
The construction process of the base station is stable, and the value of 5g connectors is high. The peak period of 5g construction is 20202025. In 2021, 705000 new 5g base stations were added in China, and the cumulative construction of 5g base stations in China reached 1425000. At present, the value of 5g single station microwave RF connectors exceeds 2500 yuan. According to the information and communication industry development plan of the 14th five year plan issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology, the number of base stations in China will reach 26 stations / 10000 people during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the total number of 5g base stations is expected to be more than 3.6 million. In 2019 and 2020, the company's sales of board to board connectors reached 22.838 million sets and 31.603 million sets, covering the construction needs of about 142000 stations and 5g macro base stations.
Fund raising projects expand production capacity and grow together with high-quality customers. The company's IPO project is expected to expand the production capacity of communication and new energy connectors by 46.3% and 22.9% respectively. At the same time, the fixed increase plan will further expand the production line of 12 million new energy vehicle connectors. In terms of customers, the company has become the core supplier of Weilai automobile power exchange connector through strict audit, and provides more than 100 connector products for T company in the United States. At the same time, it also supplies Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other three power enterprises, which is expected to achieve high growth with key customers in the future. In terms of mobile communication business, the company has successfully obtained the first-class supplier qualification of major global communication equipment manufacturers such as Zte Corporation(000063) , Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung, and communication system manufacturers such as KMW group and bofat. It is expected that the revenue in the communication field will remain stable in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.86 yuan, 2.99 yuan and 4.58 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 49 times, 31 times and 20 times respectively. The "hold" rating will be given for the first time.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk; Risk of rising raw material prices; The construction demand of downstream new energy vehicles and base stations is lower than the expected risk; Increased competition in the industry leads to the risk of new overcapacity and falling product prices.
