\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 619 Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) )
\u3000\u30001. Company profitability
In 2021, with the resumption of the company’s overseas projects and the sales volume of 150100 tons of crude oil, the company’s operating revenue was 1.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 661415 million yuan, turning losses into profits compared with -486 million in 2020.
\u3000\u30002. Aksu Zhongman oil and gas
1) production: in 2021, the crude oil output will be 170000 tons, the commodity volume will be 153000 tons, and the sales volume will be 150100 tons. In 2022, it is planned to complete 120 development wells, with an annual oil production of 385000 tons. By the end of the year, it is planned to build a production scale with a daily oil production capacity of more than 1300 tons and an annual oil production of 450000 tons.
2) profitability: in 2021, the subsidiary Aksu Zhongman realized an operating revenue of 397 million yuan and a net profit of 190 million yuan; Through our calculation, the realized price of crude oil of the subsidiary is 2643.3 yuan / ton, equivalent to 59.89 US dollars / barrel.
3) cost: according to our calculation, the full cost of the subsidiary Aksu Zhongman is 170 million yuan, and the full cost of crude oil is 1153 yuan / ton, equivalent to 26.13 US dollars / barrel.
\u3000\u30003. Oil service sector analysis
In 2021, the company’s engineering service revenue was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.36%, mainly because the project owners in Pakistan and Egypt did not resume investment or reduce investment, resulting in the reduction of work. At the same time, some of the company’s equipment was relocated to Wensu project, resulting in a sharp decline in business in China.
However, the gross profit margin of the company’s drilling engineering services reached 20.81%, an increase of 10.21 percentage points year-on-year. The main reason is that the projects suspended due to the epidemic in Russia and Iraq have resumed production, and the operation efficiency of the company’s projects is also relatively high, so the gross profit margin is constantly improving.
\u3000\u30004. Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the growth of the company’s crude oil production and oil price in 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 years will be increased from RMB 330 / 440 million to RMB 490 / 550 million; The corresponding PE was adjusted from 15.31/11.55 to 13.31/11.72 to maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: Russia and Iraq lift the ban at the same time, resulting in the risk of sharp drop in oil prices; The overseas epidemic situation worsens again and the company’s overseas projects continue to stop.
