\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 675 Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) )
The transformation from biochemical API to nuclear drug leader was successfully realized, and the “buy” rating was maintained
Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) through the acquisition of Yunke pharmaceutical, GMS, Andico and other nuclear pharmaceutical enterprises, it has realized the full coverage of single photon and positron diagnostic drugs and therapeutic drugs, realized the gorgeous transformation from biochemical API to nuclear medicine, and became one of the leaders in China’s nuclear medicine industry. Due to the impact of goodwill impairment, epidemic and other factors, we adjusted the company’s profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. We estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 would be 153 / 418 / 494 million yuan (the original value was 504 / 614 / 775 million yuan), EPS would be 0.19/0.52/0.62 yuan, and the corresponding PE score of the current stock price would be 53.0/19.4/16.4 times. Considering the current valuation level and future development prospects of the company, we maintained the “buy” rating.
Nuclear medicine industry: a golden track with good competition pattern, high entry barriers and large potential market space
We believe that there is still a certain gap between China’s nuclear medicine industry and nuclear medicine in developed countries in terms of inspection volume, equipment ownership, number of listed drugs and sales. With the deregulation of PET-CT and SPECT configuration management policies, the listing speed of new nuclear drugs in China is accelerated, and China’s nuclear medicine market has great growth potential. From the perspectives of capital investment, operation and supervision, the nuclear medicine industry has high barriers to entry. Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) as an enterprise with a national coverage network of nuclear pharmacies, it has obvious first mover advantages.
Many nuclear drug varieties have great potential, and heparin API can still contribute profits stably in the medium and long term
Andico’s built / under construction nuclear pharmacies cover densely populated and economically developed regions. In the future, Andico will continue to benefit from the increase of inspection volume in corresponding regions and support the rapid growth of performance. In the medium and long term, Andico is expected to become a platform company of nuclear medicine. Yunke pharmaceutical’s short-term performance has declined due to the impact of the epidemic, but the core variety Yunke injection still has a certain growth potential. Dongchengxinke is rich in varieties. There is a large market space for [99mTc] labeled imaging drugs and urea [14C] capsules. It is expected to maintain stable growth in the future. The API business is stable and can provide stable cash flow for other businesses of the company.
Risk tip: the new installation speed of PET-CT and the expansion speed of the company’s nuclear pharmacy are lower than expected; The progress of consistency evaluation of natroparin calcium was less than expected; The price of heparin raw materials fell.
