\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) it is expected that the profit in 2021 will slightly exceed the expectation and maintain the “buy” rating
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 138.44% – 147.40%, of which the net profit deducting non net profit will be RMB 2.557-2.657 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 158.15% – 168.25%, exceeding our expectation. With the continuous penetration of lithium batteries in automobile, energy storage and electric tools markets, we expect that the diaphragm market will still be in a tight balance between supply and demand in the next year, benefiting from the steady growth of the company’s wet lithium battery diaphragm shipment during this reporting period. We raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.663 (+ 0.54) / 48.62 (+ 0.02) / 6.559 (+ 0.02) million respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 2.98/5.45/7.35 respectively. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 79.7/43.7/32.4 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The company’s wet lithium battery isolation membrane capacity continues to improve and its technical advantages continue to consolidate
(1) capacity improvement: by the beginning of 2022, the company will build an annual lithium battery diaphragm capacity of about 4 billion Ping and improve the diaphragm capacity. It is expected that the master coil capacity will reach 7 billion Ping in 2022 (delivery capacity of about 5 billion Ping) and 10 billion Ping in 2023 (delivery capacity of about 7 billion Ping), with the goal of accounting for 50% of the market share by 2025.
(2) technical cooperation: at present, the company has carried out technical cooperation with Diren, LG and other companies, and has built a solid patent barrier. The company has implemented online coating, increased the coating proportion and optimized the product structure.
(3) leading profit in the industry: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 of 2021 will be about 905-1005 million yuan, of which the net profit of lithium battery diaphragm accounts for about 90%, so the net profit of diaphragm business will be about 800-900 million yuan. Combined with the output of about 1 billion square meters in the fourth quarter, the average net profit will be about 0.8-0.9 yuan. Under the circumstances of tight diaphragm supply and rising upstream prices in the future, we expect that the market share of the company is expected to increase in 2022, and the single average net profit is expected to increase slightly.
Layout the equipment field and stabilize the production expansion plan
Among the main materials of lithium battery, the diaphragm is currently in a tight balance between supply and demand, which is mainly subject to the import of overseas equipment. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) the production expansion plan is implemented by the combination of “imported core components + supplementary Chinese equipment cost reduction”. The equipment is mainly purchased from Japan Steel Institute, and has maintained good cooperative relations with Toshiba and other enterprises. However, in order to ensure more stable equipment supply and longer-term technical advantages, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) plans to acquire Fuqiang technology for layout in the equipment field. At present Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) has set up a R & D and production base of new energy intelligent equipment in Yushan high tech Zone to contribute to the company’s subsequent production expansion plan.
Risk tip: upstream raw material price fluctuation and intensified industry competition
