\u3000\u3000 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) (688276)
Varicella vaccine is affected by covid-19 vaccination in the short term, and the long-term income is stable
Chickenpox vaccine is the only means to prevent chickenpox infection. Since 2011, provinces and cities in China began to promote two needle injection of chickenpox vaccine. In 2020, the number of approved bottles was 27.58 million, with a year-on-year increase of 31.21%. At present, five enterprises in China produce varicella vaccine, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 8.8302 million doses will be issued in batches in 2020, with a market share of about 32%, ranking first in the market. The chickenpox vaccine market is relatively mature and the competition pattern is stable. Although the short-term covid-19 vaccination affects the vaccination of conventional vaccines, considering that chickenpox vaccine is a “just needed vaccine”, it is expected that the long-term income of chickenpox vaccine will remain stable.
The only domestic nasal spray influenza vaccine, rabies vaccine, resumed production, bringing incremental performance
The company’s freeze-dried nasal spray influenza vaccine is the exclusive influenza vaccine vaccinated by nasal spray in China. It obtained the production approval in February 2020 and went on sale in the second half of 2020. In 2020, it issued 1.57 million doses, accounting for 2.7% of the total batch issuance of 57.6 million doses of influenza vaccine. Influenza vaccination is an effective means to prevent influenza. According to the data approved and issued by the Central People’s Procuratorate, the vaccination rate of China’s total influenza vaccine population in 2020 is less than 4.2%. According to the CDC of the United States, in 2020, the influenza vaccination rate of adults and children in the United States was 48.4% and 63.8%. Nasal spray influenza has the advantage of painless vaccination, and the proportion can be improved. Affected by covid-19 vaccination in the fourth quarter of 2021, it is expected to recover later.
With the increasing abundance of product pipelines, herpes zoster can be expected in the future
The company has 14 vaccines under development and 2 all human monoclonal antibodies under development for infectious disease prevention and control, of which herpes zoster is in clinical phase 3. 1) incidence rate incidence of senile patients with herpes zoster is high, and the age is increasing. Vaccination against herpes zoster is effective way to prevent: 2013-2014 years in Jiangsu, the cumulative incidence rate of 22.6/1000 is higher than 50 years old, and the cumulative incidence rate is 52.3/1000. The average cost of each case of herpes zoster was 840.6 yuan, of which the average outpatient and inpatient costs of direct treatment were 543.8 yuan and 4502.4 yuan respectively. 2) The competition pattern of herpes zoster is good, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) leading in the research and development of domestic vaccines: GSK’s herpes zoster vaccine is the third largest variety in the world in 2019, with sales of US $2.407 billion. At present, there are only two live attenuated vaccines of MSD and recombinant protein vaccines of GSK in the world, and only one vaccine of GSK is on the market in China. According to the reply of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) on December 31, 2021, the company is working before applying for production. The research and development progress of the company’s herpes zoster vaccine in China is leading and has a certain first mover advantage.
Profit forecast and investment rating
We predict that the company’s predicted operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.210/1.839/2.631 billion, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.1% / 52.0% / 43.1% respectively, and the predicted net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 313 / 521 / 788 million. Referring to similar companies with a PE of 54 times in 2022, considering that herpes zoster is expected to be listed from 2022 to 2023, which brings performance flexibility, the company is given 66 times PE, corresponding to a market value of 34.356 billion, with a target price of 83.22 yuan. The company is given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the risk of single product structure, repeated covid-19 epidemic and less than expected sales, less than expected R & D progress, less than expected approval progress of herpes zoster vaccine, and uncertainty in the time of resumption of production of rabies vaccine
