\u3000\u3000 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) (300755)
Events
On the evening of January 10, 2022, the company released the performance express for 2021: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 7.43 billion-7.6 billion in 2021, an increase of 50.36% – 53.80% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 674 million yuan – 691 million yuan, an increase of 80.61% – 85.16% at the same time.
Key investment points
The performance met expectations and the quality of stores improved steadily
According to the performance express, the impact of non recurring profit and loss on net profit in 2021 is about 18 million yuan. According to the performance express, the revenue of 2021q4 is expected to be RMB 1.46-1.63 billion, an increase of 15.7% – 29.1% over the same period; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 90-110 million, an increase of 76.2% – 108.4% at the same time.
The company’s high growth is due to the following reasons: 1) Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) fidelity chain brand effect continues to expand, and the concepts of “buying real wine to Huazhi” and “buying famous wine to Huazhi” have been further recognized by channels and consumers; 2) The company’s strategic layout has been steadily promoted, the marketing team has been continuously expanded, and the comprehensive marketing ability has been continuously improved; 3) The number and quality of direct supply terminal stores and Huazhi chain stores have been steadily improved, the company’s service empowerment of stores has been continuously promoted, the distribution capacity has been significantly improved, and the sales revenue has increased significantly year-on-year; 4) The global famous wine supply chain has been continuously expanded, and the sales of customized fine wine and famous wine have increased significantly, which has made a great contribution to sales and profits.
Non standard customization continued to make efforts, and the “700” project was steadily promoted
The company takes maowu as the leading product, and develops customized products with famous liquor enterprises, such as Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) vintage wine “,” jinmaotai “,” Lotus wine “,” Tiegai Diaoyutai boutique wine “,” Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) 1818 “,” Hutou Fen Wine “,” Shiraz wine commemorating the 175th anniversary of Benfu “, etc. Among them, lotus wine and Tiegai Diaoyutai have performed well, and the company’s non-standard customized products have gradually developed. We expect that the proportion of non-standard customized products will be about 20% in 2021, which is expected to be further improved in the future.
In 2020, the company proposed and implemented the “700 project” to screen 700 regions with medium and high-end liquor consumption capacity, including provincial capital cities, cities around the provincial capital, prefecture level cities and top 100 counties, develop retail outlets and cultivate chain store customers, and further expand the radiation range of the company’s marketing network system. Since 2021, the company’s “700 project” has completed the recruitment of more than 600 people, and the coverage of core areas has reached 100%.
Strengthen the fidelity concept and promote the national layout of stores
The company adheres to the core concept of “high quality, fidelity, service and innovation”. In terms of channels, since 2017, the company has given full play to the experience accumulated in operating ” Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) ” chain stores, integrated the traditional offline sales model and o2o service platform in the form of unified identification, unified specification, unified distribution and unified management, integrated the existing retail customer resources, screened high-quality retail outlet customers and upgraded them to “Huazhi wine warehouse”, As a Huazhi brand store under the new retail model. In order to accelerate the optimization of industrial efficiency and channel integration, Huazhi wine warehouse is iteratively transformed into “Huazhi famous wine warehouse”, so as to further realize brand upgrading, supply chain upgrading and service upgrading.
Since 2021, the company has continued to promote the network layout of the national Huazhi famous wine warehouse, actively promoted the transformation of high-quality retail network customers into Huazhi famous wine warehouse by taking provinces and regions as units, and the number of stores and sales revenue of single stores have increased steadily. The current Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) store has completed version 3.0 upgrade iteration. In addition, in 2019, the company launched the “Huazhi optimization” e-commerce platform, mainly engaged in famous wine products. Users can place orders online through the “Huazhi optimization” wechat applet, and the company will distribute them to the warehouse through the system to realize product configuration, logistics distribution, etc.
Profit forecast
On the product side, at present, the company takes maowu as the drainage product, develops non-standard customized products, enriches the product matrix, and non-standard customized products have contributed to the profit side. On the channel side, at present, the company implements the development strategy of “small B and large c” channels, steadily expands about 300-400 stores every year, strengthens the fidelity concept, and realizes customer transformation through stores and “Huazhi optimization” e-commerce platform. We expect that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.63/2.22/2.92 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 29 / 21 / 16 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, fidelity risk, store opening less than expected, etc.
