Beiteri (835185)
Event overview. On January 10, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.35-1.55 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 173.00% ~ 213.44%. It mainly benefited from the continued prosperity of the downstream lithium battery market in 2021, the further improvement of the market demand for battery materials, and the rapid growth of the company’s sales of positive and negative materials. The booming production and marketing makes the company’s current performance increase significantly year-on-year.
21q4 performed well. According to the median forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 460 million yuan, an increase of 227.4% and a ring increase of 27.8%.
The leading position of negative electrode is stable, and the production of high nickel positive electrode continues to expand. At present, the company has a negative electrode production capacity of 155000 tons. Considering the company’s wholly-owned or joint venture plants in Sichuan, Shandong and Ningxia, we expect that the production capacity will exceed 300000 tons in 22 years. The company deeply cultivates natural graphite and owns Jixi high-grade flake graphite mine, with the shipment ranking first in China; In terms of artificial graphite, the company continues to expand production, the self supply rate of graphitization increases, the energy consumption of continuous graphitization is low, and the technology is leading; The silicon-based negative electrode has a production capacity of 3000 tons. The product will first benefit from the increase in the use of silicon-based negative electrode in 4680 by supplying Tesla cylindrical battery through Panasonic. From the perspective of customers, the company has a high proportion of overseas customers, covering LG, Samsung SDI, Panasonic, ski and other high-quality customers. In terms of positive electrode, the company focuses on NCA and ncm811 and divests LFP business. The production capacity will reach 30000 tons by the end of 21 years, and the production capacity of high nickel equity will be about 40000-50000 tons in 22 years.
Investment suggestion: considering the firm leading position of the company’s negative electrode and the continuous expansion of the production of high nickel positive electrode, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years to RMB 1.513 billion, 2.580 billion and 3.573 billion (previously RMB 1.499 billion, 2.170 billion and 2.843 billion), an increase of 206%, 71% and 39% at the same time. The current share price corresponds to 44, 26 and 19 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. With reference to the current CS new energy vehicle with 99 times pe-ttm (wind’s consistent profit expectation), considering that the company is the leader of lithium battery cathode, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the global demand for new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Capacity expansion was slower than expected.
