Beiteri (835185)
Production and marketing are booming, and the performance forecast of beiteri in 2021 is bright
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.350-1.55 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 173.00% – 213.44%. Benefiting from the continued prosperity of the downstream lithium battery market, the market demand for battery materials was further improved, the production and sales of positive and negative materials of the company were booming, and the performance increased significantly year-on-year. Based on the performance forecast, we significantly raised the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 1491 (+ 4.76) / 19.90 (+ 7.44) / 2684 (+ 1045) million respectively, and the corresponding EPS was RMB 307 (+ 0.98) / 4.10 (+ 1.53) / 5.53 (+ 2.15) per share respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price was 44.9 / 33.6 / 24.9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Under the wave of automobile electrification, the demand for lithium battery anode and cathode materials is strong
Driven by policy and market, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry is booming. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to November 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times, and the market penetration has increased from 5% in 2020 to 13%. Accordingly, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity reached 128.3gwh from January to November 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 153%, resulting in the continuous upward market of lithium battery anode and cathode materials. In terms of negative electrode materials, artificial graphite has excellent cycle performance and has gradually become the first choice for negative electrode materials of power batteries. In terms of cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate cathode and ternary cathode are mainly used at present. With the mass production of high energy density products such as high nickel ternary cathode materials, the proportion of high nickel ternary market will gradually increase in the future.
The leading position of negative business is stable, and the positive business can grow in a high period
Negative pole business, the company is the global leader in lithium battery negative pole, with the world’s first shipment for many years. In the next step, the negative electrode business will continue to grow rapidly around cost reduction and volume increase: (1) volume increase: the company has a negative electrode capacity of 153000 tons and a planned capacity of 490000 tons. Based on the high downstream prosperity and excellent customer structure, the volume of revenue will continue to rise in the future; (2) Cost reduction: the main cost of graphite anode comes from raw materials and manufacturing costs. The company is expected to continue to improve its profitability through integration and continuous graphitization layout. Cathode business, the company focuses on high nickel ternary cathode materials, and its main products include NCA and ncm811. In May 2021, the company announced that it planned to jointly invest with ski and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) in the construction of “high nickel ternary cathode material project for lithium battery with an annual output of 50000 tons”, and actively expand overseas customers. At present, the products have been shipped in batches, such as ski and Panasonic. In the future, with the increase of market demand, the gradual introduction of high-quality customers and the continuous release of production capacity, the company’s cathode business is expected to contribute considerable incremental performance.
Risk tips: the prosperity of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials is rising.
