\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Tianyi Comheart Telecom Co.Ltd(300504) (300504)
\u3000\u30001. Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 175-190 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 58.83% - 72.45%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 155-170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.61% - 83.83%.
2. In the three trillion era (5g + 10gpon + WiFi 6), the demand for relevant terminals and equipment of operators increased rapidly, driving the growth of the company's performance
Under the "dual Gigabit" network action, we vigorously promoted the Gigabit upgrade of fixed broadband network. The smart home business of the three operators maintained a rapid growth of 26%, 37% and 38% respectively. With the upgrading of home bandwidth, the popularization and upgrading of home Wi Fi and the continuous penetration of smart home products, the demand for relevant terminals and equipment increased rapidly.
In 2021, the operator's smart home plan is more radical, and the amount of terminal bidding procurement is increased: China Mobile's centralized purchase of home gateway from 2020 to 2021 requires 10 million gateway equipment supporting WiFi 6 function; China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) in 2021, the home gateway will be purchased intensively, of which more than 14 million gateway devices are required to support WiFi 6. According to the current average price of home gateway of 150 yuan, we predict that the home gateway market of the three major telecom operators will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2021.
With the continuous recovery of the market demand for broadband network terminal products by operators, the company has achieved positive revenue growth in a single quarter for more than 6 consecutive quarters; The cost increased steadily, continued to increase R & D investment, and increased investment in products such as large and small base stations.
According to the company's latest announcement on January 6, 2022, the company won the bid for China Mobile's centralized purchase project of intelligent home gateway products from 2022 to 2023, with an overall amount of about 328 million yuan, which is expected to continue to promote the company's performance growth.
3. 5g and VR new products are gradually mature and can grow in the future
1) 5g field: at present, the company's main products in 5g field include 5g small base station and 5gcpe. 5g small base station products have been tested by operators and have the ability to supply customers, laying the foundation for the mature promotion of subsequent cloud small station products.
2) invest in the VR / AR field. The company's VR terminal has entered the product library of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) and has the sales qualification in China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) ; Invest in Shanghai lipai optical crystal technology Co., Ltd., the upstream core optical component supplier of AR, and make technical reserves for the AR field.
4. Investment suggestions
Considering the company's current layout of 5g small base stations and other new products, as well as the large volume of wifi6 and 10gpon products, and maintaining the same revenue forecast and adjusting EPS in 2021, it is expected that the company's revenue in 2021-2023 will be RMB 2.37/28.6/3.46 billion respectively, and the earnings per share will be adjusted from RMB 0.61/0.78/0.92 to RMB 0.67/0.78/0.92 respectively, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 20.81/share on January 11, 2022, and the PE valuation will be 25.8/22.2/18.6 times, Maintain the "overweight" rating.
5. Risk warning
The price competition of wifi6 and 10gpon products is fierce, and the gross profit has fallen sharply; The procurement scale of new products such as 5g small base stations is small, lower than the market expectation.
