Industry prosperity tracking: sales volume
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association:
(1) in March, China produced 2.241 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 9.1%; 2234000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of – 11.7%. Among them, 1.881 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.1%; 1864000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of – 0.6%. 360000 commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of – 38.0%; 370000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of – 43.5%.
(2) from January to March, China’s automobile production and sales were 6.484 million and 6.599 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.0% and + 0.2%. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 5.499 million and 5.545 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.0% and + 9.0%; The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 985000 and 965000, with a year-on-year increase of – 29.7% and – 31.7%.
According to the monthly statistics of the passenger Association: according to the car series, the year-on-year performance of various brands in March was differentiated, and the chain generally rebounded:
(1) among Japanese brands, Toyota’s performance is differentiated, GAC Toyota continues to grow year-on-year and month on month, Honda’s performance is relatively good, and Dongfeng Nissan’s decline is obvious year-on-year and month on month.
(2) among European brands, DPCA performed well year-on-year and month on month, while SAIC Volkswagen performed better among North South Volkswagen.
(3) American brands generally increased month on month, and Tesla grew strongly year on year against the background of the booming Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market.
(4) the performance of independent brands is differentiated, with Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) occupying the first place in monthly sales, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Geely ranking the second and third, and the performance of new forces such as Xiaopeng and Nezha is outstanding.
Industry prosperity tracking: inventory
In March, the inventory early warning index of auto dealers was 63.6%, up 8.1 percentage points year-on-year and 7.5 percentage points month on month. The inventory early warning index is above the boom and bust line.
In March, the inventory, market demand, average daily sales volume and employee index increased month on month, and the operating condition index decreased month on month, of which the operating condition index was 44.9%, down 9.4 percentage points month on month.
China official account of the Automobile Circulation Association, which was affected by the epidemic in March, increased epidemic control and control in many provinces and cities. Consumers’ car buying has a significant impact, especially in late June. We expect that with the gradual mitigation of the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the orderly promotion of resumption of work and production, automobile production and sales are expected to gradually recover.
Investment view
In March 2022, under the influence of the epidemic and other factors that began in the middle and late days of the year, the production and sales of the industry fell year-on-year, the supply and demand of the passenger car market were under pressure, and the recovery rhythm of the passenger car market under the relief of the core shortage problem was disrupted. At present, Shanghai and other places are gradually promoting the resumption of work and production of key enterprises. We expect that with the gradual relief of the epidemic problem, the automotive industry is expected to usher in a new round of recovery process; In 2022, the new energy vehicle market continued its growth momentum. The sales volume maintained a high year-on-year growth in March, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19.3% in the first three months. We expect that under the tone of steady growth, car sales are still expected to be basically flat this year, in which new energy vehicles will continue to contribute to the increment, and the short-term epidemic and cost side disturbance will not change the long-term good trend. Electrification, intelligent networking and platform architecture build vehicles to promote a new cycle of Industrial Science and technology. In addition to new forces, traditional technologies such as the public have also been actively transformed, and China’s independent leader has turned very quickly. The knockout round has begun, but the finish line has not yet arrived.
We believe that the era of intelligent electrification in the automotive industry is opening, electrification has begun to show its edge, and intelligence is expected to become the next growth point, maintaining the rating of “better than the big market” in the automotive industry in 2022.
(1) focus on the high-quality vehicle leader with firm scientific and technological transformation and good sales trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the vehicle enterprises Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc;
2. The parts and components industry has seen a steady and upward turn in the industry cycle, with imports substitution accelerating, and smart electric networking enabling. It’s suggested to focus on the industry cycle of parts and components, with the industry cycle of parts and components. The industry cycle of parts and components, the industry cycle of parts and components in steady upward, the industry cycle of parts and components, the industry cycle of parts and components, the industry cycle of parts and components, the industry cycle of parts and components, the industry cycle of parts and components, the industry cycle of parts and parts, the industry cycle of parts and parts, the acceleration of import substitution, and the acceleration of import substitution, and smart electric networking to be able. It’s suggested to focus on the attention of the proposed to focus on ‘ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) 660660of the Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , etc.
Risk tip: the recovery of automobile industry is not as expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
