China is the world's largest producer and consumer of steel. The steel industry is also the industry with the largest carbon emissions in China in addition to electricity. As an important support for the national economy, the carbon peak and carbon neutralization of China's iron and steel industry are not destined to be a simple process.
At the "2022 (13th) China Iron and Steel Development Forum" held recently, many experts said that carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the iron and steel industry are complex and huge systems engineering, and three major cognitive misunderstandings need to be eliminated.
First, high-quality development does not mean no development.
Yang Weimin, member of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and deputy director of the economic committee, said here that carbon reduction in the iron and steel industry should not only start from the industry itself, but should start from the overall situation of the national economy and grasp the balance of many objectives.
He pointed out that there is a hierarchical relationship between different goals. For example, sharing, green and openness belong to the way of development, and the foothold is still development. Carbon reduction is a major change in development philosophy, development ideas and development mode. It must be based on development and cannot weaken productivity due to carbon reduction.
Li Xinchuang, party secretary and chief engineer of metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute, also said that for the iron and steel industry, reduction, low-carbon and green development does not mean no development, nor does it mean that a large number of steel plants will be shut down or production will be reduced in a short time.
China has maintained the first steel output in the world for 26 consecutive years. Li Xinchuang said that the steel industry is also one of China's most globally competitive industries and can not "abandon martial arts".
Chen Kelong, director of the raw material industry department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, also pointed out that in the process of promoting high-quality development, the iron and steel industry first needs to firmly grasp the core mission of the industry. He pointed out that providing high-quality and high-end steel products and services and maintaining the stable and efficient operation of the industrial chain and supply chain are the core mission of the development of the steel industry. If there is a problem in steel supply, the national economy and people's livelihood, national defense, military industry, science and technology and other fields will be greatly affected.
Therefore, he pointed out that we should properly handle the relationship between controlling production capacity, controlling output and ensuring the steady growth of supply, and unswervingly consolidate the achievements of de capacity under the condition of ensuring effective supply and meeting effective demand.
Second, if the demand does not drop, the output cannot be reduced first.
Yang Weimin said that between production and consumption, we should first reduce consumption and then output, otherwise it will lead to the rise of steel prices, which will impact many downstream industries, including construction, automobile, machinery, household appliances and so on.
Because the national economy is a complex and interrelated system, he explained that the change of each variable will have an impact on the overall national economic balance.
He Wenbo, Party Secretary of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, pointed out that we should have a rational, objective and sober understanding of the realization of the "double carbon" goal of the iron and steel industry. The realization of carbon neutralization in China's iron and steel industry is a systematic project, which needs to be carried out reasonably and orderly in stages and steps according to the objective needs of the national economy and the development of the iron and steel industry at different stages, comprehensive technical development, scientific overall planning and scientific planning.
The industry expects that China's steel consumption will remain at a relatively high level in the medium and long term. Li Xinchuang pointed out that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's steel production and consumption will remain at a high level of 1 billion tons.
Third, we should not rely solely on a certain technology or process.
As a systematic project, the low-carbon development of the iron and steel industry can not rely solely on a certain technology or rush to replace the long process with the short process.
Some people believe that hydrogen reduction may drive a new technological revolution in the process flow and realize the low-carbon transformation of the iron and steel industry. However, Yin Ruiyu, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering and former Vice Minister of the Ministry of metallurgical industry, admitted that assuming that the proportion of hydrogen metallurgy accounts for 8% in 2040 and 25% in 2060, according to the model calculation, its contribution rate to the decarbonization of the industry is only 9%.
According to the model, in addition to hydrogen metallurgy, yinruiyu said that in the next 40 years, the decline of crude steel production will contribute the highest rate to decarburization, up to 45%, the scrap utilization factor (of which the process factor of all scrap electric furnace accounts for about 35%) will reach 39%, and the contribution rate of energy saving, interface technology and intelligence will be 7%. The low-carbon transformation of iron and steel industry can not rely on the development of electric furnace process alone.
