Report guide
Baijiu: suggest active layout: 1) optimize the layout of the epidemic impact on the performance of small / have the risk of high-end liquor; 2) The target with strong certainty of 22q2 performance growth, good marginal change and reasonable valuation is preferred. The specific elements include: strong business strength and anti risk ability & the main base market is less affected by the epidemic situation & the performance driving force comes from mature products rather than investment promotion & 22q2 still performs well compared with 22q1. Recommended targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , etc.
Popular products sector: we suggest that we should continue to pay attention to the layout opportunities of rebound after the epidemic in the near future. At the current time, priority should be given to the required leading targets & optional high-quality leading with continuous improvement of profitability: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
April 18th ~4 22, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.19%, the food and beverage sector fell 1.80%, Baijiu sector fell less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 1.99%. Specifically, the increase of Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co.Ltd(601579) (+ 37.41%) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (+ 2.96%) in the beverage sector this week was relatively large, while the decrease of St Xifa (- 20.28%) and Lanzhou Huanghe Enterprise Co.Ltd(000929) (- 8.86%) was relatively large; This week, the increase of Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) (+37.97%) and Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) (+ 16.79%) in the food sector was relatively the top, while the increase of Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) 12.23%, and Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) 10.40% was relatively the bottom.
This week’s view
Baijiu: Baijiu: Baijiu: the wind is coming, and the sector of the liquor sector is likely to rebound after the wind is coming. The liquor sector fever is recovering this week. It is optimistic that the rebound will be possible after April 18th. On the 22 day of ~4, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index 300 will fall 4.19% on the 5 trading day, and the 1.80% decline in the food and beverage sector. The decline in the Baijiu sector is less than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, a decrease of 1.99%. Specifically, in terms of the specific details, it’s more likely to see that ‘ Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) atpresent, the market is affected by the epidemic as a whole, with limited marginal changes and smooth progress of payment collection.
Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : the performance is in line with expectations, and the channel quality has increased. We believe that the performance of Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) 22q1 has the following two highlights: 1) the upgrading trend of product structure continues. In 2022q1, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor (shede and Tuopai Tianqu) of the company was 15.75 (+ 90.98%), and the revenue of high-end liquor increased by 3.67 percentage points to 88.31% compared with the whole year of 2021, and the ton price increased steadily. Under the background of completing the performance target ahead of schedule, 22q1 stopped the goods in the national market in March to further digest the inventory. Therefore, 22q1 generally showed a good situation of upward rated price, low inventory and better than expected payment collection performance; 2) In the context of high performance growth, the channel has high quality and strong sustainability. The main growth source of 22q1 company is still the base markets such as northeast Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong and Henan: 22q1 company is 455 million yuan (+ 72.60%) inside / outside the province respectively / 1.202 billion yuan (+ 112.35%). In addition, the main sources of growth are still old merchants / big merchants, and the quality of dealers has been continuously improved: under the background that the number of big merchants above 5 million accounts for about 20% and the revenue accounts for about two-thirds, the number of 22q1 dealers has increased by 157 to 2409 month on month, realizing a small and steady increase in volume; The average size of a single dealer in 22q1 was 688000 yuan, an increase of 60.92% over the same period last year, and continued to achieve high-speed growth in quality.
Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : 21 years ended smoothly, and 22q1 profit was under pressure in the short term. We believe that the performance of Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) 2122q1 has the following two highlights: 1) the trend of high-end is gradually deducting: in 2021, high-end achieved 45.19 (+ 54.33%), the revenue accounted for 0.15% higher than the same period last year, and the gross profit margin also increased steadily (the year-on-year growth of No. 8 + Jingtai + Jingtai ice and snow in 2021 was 55%; the year-on-year growth of essence, collection 2021, collection of ice and snow and collection of Sanxingdui was 58%); The proportion of high-grade liquor revenue of 22q1 company increased by 0.80 percentage points to 97.88% compared with the same period last year. 2) Rapid development of core markets: in 2021, the company’s eight core markets increased by 61% year-on-year (six markets continued to grow at a high speed, Henan was affected by the epidemic and flood / Hunan was affected by the active adjustment, and the overall growth rate was slightly lower), and other markets increased by 44% year-on-year. It is worth mentioning that the growth rate of net profit in 22q1 was lower than expected, mainly due to the increase of expenses (during the period, the expense rate / sales expense rate / management expense rate changed by 9.47/7.34/2.06 percentage points to 35.37% / 29.00% / 7.01% respectively compared with the same period last year). Under the epidemic, the company maintained performance growth under the epidemic by means of online press conference / small tasting / code scanning activities / strengthening group purchase.
Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) research update: excellent payment collection progress, low inventory and smooth upgrade. In the short term: 1) the progress of payment collection is higher than expected: at present, the progress of payment collection across the country has reached 63%. The “70 day storm” held on April 21 proposed to complete the goal of 70% payment collection by the end of the second quarter and the task of the whole year by the end of the third quarter. Despite the short-term impact of the epidemic, the 25% target of the whole year is highly achieved; 2) Inventory health is better than expected: under the background of upward rating, the national inventory of dream blue is lower than 16 points, and the inventory in the province is at the excellent level of 5-10 points; Haitian stocks also remain healthy; 3) Product upgrading exceeded expectations: since this year, M6 + has achieved stable and upward price through regional accurate control of quantity and price, and can be expected to reach 10 billion in the whole year; M3 crystal version has been successfully upgraded; The Spring Festival exam shows that sky blue has high market acceptance and is in the middle and late stage of upgrading; The price of the blue sea is about to be upgraded (150 yuan). This year, the company has completed the upgrading of all main products, and next year will usher in a dividend release year; 4) Market development outside the province exceeded expectations: this year, the company divided the region into 61 business divisions, promoted young people and improved business efficiency, including solid performance in Henan / Shandong, accelerated performance in Anhui, brilliant performance in Jiangxi, dream series in Northeast China or facing the outbreak period.
In the medium and long term: Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) as the leader of sujiu liquor with strong channel power, it has strong competitive advantage internally and the external market outside the province is the second growth curve. We are optimistic about the continuous release of the company’s reform dividend thereafter.
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) research update: V series is still the key product, and Gaogou revival is in progress. Review 2021:
1) V Series: the fastest growth rate, with an average annual target of more than 50% during the 14th Five Year Plan period, of which V3 has completed the comprehensive layout in the province, and 22q1 continues to strengthen V3 circulation channel order and inventory control; 2) Guoyuan: the fourth open has achieved renewal and upgrading, and the growth rate of opposite opening at the beginning of the year is faster than that of the fourth open, mainly due to the upgrading of urban and rural mass consumption + the improvement of brand strength; 3) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : the new generation of planet series will be upgraded in 22 years, and the price band of 100300 yuan will be supplemented; 4) Gaogou: establish Gaogou liquor sales company to promote the revival of Gaogou brand / accumulate experience for the next implementation of sub brand substantive operation; 5) The province will deepen intensive cultivation and expand its high-end leading edge. There is still room for growth in all regions of the province, which can support the development requirements of the province in the 14th five year plan; 6) Dual brand layout, the strategy outside the province is comprehensive planning, key breakthrough, echelon development and rolling development. Four focuses: ① focus on strategic focus: form about 50 small model markets, 20 prefecture level markets and 30 county-level markets. ② Focus on products: V9 is distributed in the Yangtze River Delta and East China, and the national edge is opened in all directions. Explore the fragmented promotion mode of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand. ③ Focus on core customers and focus on excellent business. ④ Focus on organizations outside the province: further empower the marketing center, stimulate the endogenous power of the front-line, and give the front-line soldiers more decision-making power. Looking forward to 2022: the company’s target revenue of 7.5 billion and challenge of 8 billion in 22 years; With a net profit of 2.25 billion and a challenge of 2.35 billion, we have high accessibility.
Data update: this week Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) pricing tends to be stable and the overall inventory performance is healthy Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : this week, the pricing of Feitian Maotai / 1935 is stable at 2620 yuan and 1410 yuan. With the launch of e-commerce platform, the pricing of Feitian Maotai may be effectively controlled in stages Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the wholesale price was stable at 980 yuan this week. Under the superposition of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rising retail price and accelerating market self inspection, the wholesale price rose slightly this week Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the wholesale price is about 910920 yuan. The growth target of Guojiao in 22 years is 30%. The overall performance of the wholesale price is stable.
Investment suggestion: the wind is coming. It is suggested to pay attention to the rebound opportunities of liquor enterprises that can maintain excellent growth in 22q1 / Q2. The next annual report & quarterly report will be released intensively & the phased implementation of liquor enterprise reform measures will be the catalyst for important sectors. Considering that the sectors have experienced the decline of “basically facing the good trend, mainly disturbed by the emotional side” in the early stage, the sector valuation has also been cost-effective, and the epidemic situation may usher in an inflection point, which is expected to boost market sentiment, Positive layout is recommended: 1) select high-end liquor with little impact on performance / anti risk ability; 2) The target with strong certainty of 22q2 performance growth, good marginal change and reasonable valuation is preferred. The specific elements include: strong business strength and anti risk ability & the main base market is less affected by the epidemic situation & the performance driving force comes from mature products rather than investment promotion & 22q2 still performs well compared with 22q1. Recommended objects: [ Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ], [ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ], [ Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ], [ Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ], [ Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) ], [ Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) ], etc.
[beer sector]: the sector was stable this week, focusing on the post epidemic repair opportunities. Plate review: the sector was stable this week, focusing on the sector repair opportunities under the recovery of the post epidemic catering supply chain. From April 18 to April 22, the CSI 300 index fell 4.19%, the food and beverage sector fell 1.80%, and the beer sector rose by 0.29% more than the CSI 300. Specifically, for the beer sector, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (+ 2.39%), Budweiser Asia Pacific (+ 0.74%), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (+ 0.73%), China Resources beer (- 2.05%), and Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (- 2.31%), the performance of the board was stable this week. We believe that if the epidemic is well controlled in April, gradually relaxed nationwide, and the peak consumption season is normal in May, the impact of the epidemic on the annual sales of beer enterprises is expected to be limited. It is suggested to pay attention to the repair opportunities of the beer sector under the recovery of the catering supply chain after the epidemic.
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) update: the impact of the epidemic situation is generally controllable. The high growth of USSR leads the large-scale epidemic situation in the waist and the overall impact of cost is controllable + the high growth of USSR thickens profits and drives the large-scale production of waist products + big city plan & Channel sinking & accelerated development under the completion of Bu adjustment = performance or exceeding expectations. Specifically:
1) at present, the impact of the epidemic is controllable: Recently, the inventory of dealers in East China is high, the epidemic has little impact on the southwest and northwest of the strong market, and has a significant impact on the catering end. At present, Fujian has achieved normal shipment, and the overall impact of the epidemic is still controllable.
2) Wusu’s high growth drives the volume of waist products: Wusu is still expected to maintain rapid growth this year. In terms of structure, it is expected that 200000 tons of green Wusu, less than 100000 tons of Wusu pull cans and other products, and the rest are red Wusu. The ex factory price of 1664 is one of the highest priced brands in China. At present, Yancheng factory can produce 250ml products. Driven by Wusu, Lebao and heavy beer achieved rapid growth through bundling sales with Wusu + KPI assessment in the form of brand combination.
3) the cost under price increase + price lock is controllable: the price increase of Wusu outside Xinjiang in February is expected to be reflected to the report end in Q2. At present, Wusu in catering channels is higher than 12 yuan, the terminal and consumers have high acceptance of the price increase, and the prices of Fenghuaxueyue, Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Shancheng and other products have not been increased. Last year, the price of glass bottles, cartons and plastic bags was locked. At present, the cost pressure is mainly raw materials and transportation costs. Comprehensive price lock and price increase, the cost is controllable this year.
4) channel sinking promotes sales growth: at present, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan and other regions are provincial generation mode, while Fujian, Jiangsu, Shandong and other regions have gradually changed from provincial generation mode to prefecture level city generation mode, promoting the rapid growth of sales.
At present, the beer industry accounts for 55% of current drinks, 30% of tobacco and alcohol convenience stores and less than 10% of Ka channels, of which Wusu catering channel accounts for 60% – 70% and 1664 night show accounts for about half.
5) the adjustment of big city plan + Bu is completed to promote the nationalization and accelerate the development: in the main sales market of USSR, the northwest is the first echelon, the southwest, South and East China are the second echelon, and the north and northeast are the third echelon. The big city plan aims at the development of Suzhou, Xuzhou, Baotou, Quanzhou and other large cities with economy and population (rather than provinces, focusing on resources), and recruits big businessmen with strong government resources, terminal resources and financial strength. More than 60% of the increment of Wusu last year came from the big city plan, which will allow big businessmen to develop other surrounding areas later. At present, the adjustment of Bu has been completed, CIB and Xinjiang Bu are relatively large, and Chongqing, Ningxia and Yunnan Bu only cover the surrounding markets. The person in charge of Bu has rich experience and has the authority of personnel, finance and supply chain.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the repair opportunities of the beer sector under the recovery of the catering supply chain after the epidemic. We believe that if the epidemic ushers in the inflection point as soon as possible, the national control is relaxed, and the peak consumption season in May is carried out normally, the impact of the epidemic on the annual sales of beer enterprises is expected to be limited. It is suggested to pay attention to the current two major observation points [the inflection point time of the epidemic] and [the number of provinces continuously affected by the epidemic after April] to grasp the repair opportunities of the beer sector after the epidemic.
At the same time, considering the high-end upgrading trend of the beer industry in the past 22 years, it is highly certain that the price increase will lead to the improvement of the profit margin in the past 22 years + the optimization of the industry pattern.
Focus on recommending [ Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ], whose main market is less affected by the epidemic and Wusu is still expected to achieve high growth in 22 years; And focus on [ Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ] with high valuation and cost performance, 22-year white beer is expected to maintain a rapid development speed, and there is a large space for pure production and long-term development.
Two, [food sector]: pay attention to the layout opportunity sector brought by the rebound of the post epidemic sector: review this week, the sector has dropped slightly, focusing on the layout opportunities of the post epidemic sector rebound: the food processing sector dropped by 2.27%, of which the condiment sector dropped 1.68%, the dairy sector fell 1.06%, and the meat sector fell 0.31%.
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks: Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) (+ 37.97%), Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (+ 25.96%), Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) (+ 16.79%) ranked among the top three in the sector. In the meat products sector, Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 4.22%), Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 1.68%) and Jinzi Ham Co.Ltd(002515) (+ 1.64%) increased the most; In the seasoning sector, Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) (+ 37.97%), Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) (+ 16.79%), Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) (+ 4.87%) rose the top three; In the dairy sector, Beingmate Co.Ltd(002570) (+1.08%) rose slightly, Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) 0.37%, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) 0.67) fell slightly; In the comprehensive food sector, Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (+ 25.96%) led the rise, while Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) (+ 15.42%) and Three Squirrels Inc(300783) (+ 6.40%) followed the rise.
This week’s view: focus on the layout opportunities brought by the rebound of the sector after the epidemic!
At present, we still suggest that we continue to pay attention to the layout opportunities of rebound after the epidemic in the near future. Welcome to our post epidemic special series report “who will take the lead after the epidemic? — Dazhong product 22q2 investment strategy”
The main points are:
[previous market view] in 2022, the cost of mass products will see the superposition of inflection points, the appearance of price increase + the improvement of demand, and the overall opportunity of the sector will be brought by the simultaneous rise of volume and price.
[actual situation] However, after entering 2022, the scattered outbreak of the epidemic has limited the consumption scene; The recovery of demand is slow, and the consumer demand has not been significantly improved. At the same time, the cost continues to rise, which makes the previous market expectations and logic for mass products unable to be fully realized. Therefore, we believe that:
Current time point: priority should be given to the required leading targets & optional high-quality leading with continuous improvement of profitability: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
1) compared with the past 20 years, a major problem faced by the popular products sector is the greater pressure on the cost side. Due to the continuous rise of raw materials in the past 21 years and the impact of international geopolitical conflicts in the past 22 years, the cost of most raw materials and packaging materials of popular products is still at an all-time high. Therefore, priority should be given to [mandatory consumer products with relatively high performance certainty]. At the current time, we suggest to pay attention to [ Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ], [ Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) ], where the price increase is conducted smoothly and the cost has an inflection point.
2) at the same time, we also suggest paying attention to the leaders of optional consumer goods with the logic of improving profitability and reasonable valuation after the post epidemic demand is repaired: [ Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ], [ Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ].
3) in addition, the value of defense allocation of leading dairy enterprises is prominent. It is expected to promote double-digit income growth through volume increase + category structure adjustment + product structure upgrading, and improve profit margin through cost rate optimization: [ Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ].
Looking forward to the follow-up: we need to observe the multi factor improvement opportunities of cost inflection point, demand repair and epidemic recovery.
In 22 years, with the improvement of many factors such as the gradual resolution of the epidemic, the recovery of consumer demand and the decline of cost pressure, the sub sector is expected to usher in marginal improvement. It is suggested to pay continuous attention to Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , etc.
Update this week: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) , Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) , Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) 1, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : 22q1 performance update
22q1 achieved revenue of 3.032 billion yuan (+ 14.14%), net profit attributable to parent company of 313 million yuan (- 29.3%), and net profit deducted of 265 million yuan (- 36.09%)
22q1 gross profit margin is 26.68% (- 6.56pct), net profit margin is 10.45% (- 6.46pct), net profit attributable to parent company is 10.31% (- 6.33pct), net profit attributable to non parent company is 8.73% (- 6.86pct), which has decreased year on year; The period expense rate is 14.83% (+ 1.51pct), of which the sales expense rate is 6.68% (+ 0.49pct); The management fee rate is 3.21% (+ 0.23pct); Financial expense rate 0.99% (+ 0.73pct); The R & D expense rate is 3.95% (+ 0.06pct).
2. Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) : product and channel structure optimization, Q2 performance or continuous high growth, 22q1 revenue of 2.342 billion yuan (+ 0.49%), steady growth of revenue. Channel research shows that due to the repeated epidemic, the company’s revenue from January to February may decline year-on-year. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai and Northeast China in March, the nationwide demand for goods storage increased, and the monthly revenue increased by 20 +% in March.
22q1 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 261 million yuan (+ 48.36%), with outstanding performance. Product structure upgrading + channel structure optimization (optimize loss channels and low profit products, and replace them with new products and channels, and the product replacement scale will reach about 600 million) + under the price increase of 21q4, the gross profit margin of 22q1 is + 2.38pct to 31.03% year-on-year. The superimposed selling expense ratio was optimized (the selling expense ratio of 22q1 decreased by 1.84pct to 14.40% at the same time), and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company of 22q1 increased by 3.59pct to 11.14% at the same time, maintaining a high double-digit net interest rate attributable to the parent company for two consecutive months.
Looking forward to 22q2, the demand for hoarding goods has increased under the catalysis of the epidemic. We believe that the income end of 22q2 is expected to accelerate month on month.
The performance end benefited from the launch of new products (air fryer series products for to C end and coke fried Balls Series in the north were launched at the end of April and early May). The product and channel structure continued to be optimized, superimposed with the low base of 21q2, and we believe that the performance of 22q2 may continue to increase. Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the income side has a high probability of fulfilling the equity incentive target (10% YoY), and the parent net interest rate is expected to remain high, close to 10%.
3. Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) : 22q1 achieved high performance growth and smooth channel expansion [2021] achieved revenue of 747 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 112 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.49%; The non net profit deducted was 85.24 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%.
2021q4 achieved a revenue of 202 million yuan (+ 3.10%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189017 million yuan (- 50.95%); The net profit deducted from non parent company is -3.0473 million yuan (- 108.00%).
[2022q1] achieved revenue of 215 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.98%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.21 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96%; The non net profit deducted was 24.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%, realizing rapid growth.
The company currently includes four categories: fat cream, chocolate, jam and essence. In the 21st year, the income of vegetable fat cream reached 681 million yuan (+ 31.89%), accounting for 91.23% (+ 0.85pct); Chocolate achieved 27 million yuan (+ 10.49%), accounting for 3.55% (- 0.65 PCT); Jam achieved 28 million yuan (+ 19.87%), accounting for 3.81% (- 0.34 PCT); The essence and flavor reached 7 million yuan (+18.92%), and the proportion dropped to 0.91% (-0.09pct).
[sub channel] at present, the company mainly includes two channels: Sales and direct sales. In 21 years, the sales revenue of distribution channels reached 669 million yuan (+ 40.92%), accounting for 89.60% (+ 6.52pct); Direct sales channels achieved a revenue of 78 million yuan (- 19.69%), accounting for 10.40% (- 6.52 PCT).
[gross profit margin] the gross profit margin was 43.66% (-9.27pct) in 21 years and 36.31% (-16.95pct) in 22q1. The decrease of gross profit margin was mainly due to the adjustment of accounting standards and the continuous increase of raw material costs.
[expense rate] in 21 years, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 17.54% (- 6.24pct), 8.57% (0pct), 4.28% (+ 0.44pct) and – 0.27% (- 0.27pct) respectively; 22q1 company achieved sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of 13.49% (- 12pct), 6.51% (- 3.68pct), 2.79% (- 2.94pct) and 0% (+ 0.64pct) respectively.
[net interest rate] the net interest rate will be 15.05% (-0.14pct) in 21 years and 14.98% (+ 4.52pct) in 22q1.
4. Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) : 2021 annual report express delivery
1) in 2021, the company realized revenue of 7.73 billion yuan (+ 5.13%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 245 million yuan (+ 101172%); Through the measures of deep cultivation, optimization and innovation of products through channels, the business of its subsidiary ailaifaxi has recovered well, realizing an operating revenue of 1.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.81%, and a net profit of 115 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.62%; The company’s high-end product extreme series revenue increased by 23.59% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth for three consecutive years.
2) 21q4 revenue is 1.798 billion yuan (- 6.95%), and 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company is 33 million yuan (- 60.0%).
[profitability] 1) the gross profit margin in 2021 is 25.48% (+ 1.30pct), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 3.17% (+ 2.87pct).
2) gross profit margin during 21q4 is 26.34% (+ 19.74pct); The net interest rate attributable to the parent company is 1.85% (-1.70pct).
[revenue structure]
1) sub products: the income of liquid milk in 21 years was 4.775 billion yuan (10.84%), accounting for 62.56% and the gross profit margin was 20.13%; Solid milk income is 750 million yuan (- 17.77%), accounting for 9.83% and gross profit margin is 20.40%; Ice cream and other income amounted to 1.322 billion yuan (10.14%), accounting for 17.32% and the gross profit margin was 31.70%; The income from smearing sauce was 785 million yuan (- 9.44%), accounting for 10.29% and the gross profit margin was 52.82%; 2) By Region: in the 21st year, the income outside Beijing / Beijing was 4.394 billion yuan / 3.239 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.33% / – 6.88%, accounting for 57.56% / 42.44% respectively, and the gross profit margin was 26.73% / 23.89% respectively;
3) distribution mode: the direct sales revenue in 21 years was 2.804 billion yuan (+ 2.03%), accounting for 36.73% and the gross profit margin was 34.79%; The income of dealers was 3.993 billion yuan (+ 8.63%), accounting for 52.32% and the gross profit margin was 19.94%; Other income was 836 million yuan (- 3.28%), accounting for 10.95% and the gross profit margin was 21.10%.
[expenses] the sales expense rate of 21 years is 15.45% (-0.77pct); The management fee rate is 4.65% (+ 0.11pct); Financial expense rate 2.03% (- 0.40pct); The R & D expense rate is 1.52% (+ 1.04pct).
[business objective] the 22-year operating income target is RMB 8.5 billion, an increase of 10% at the same time, and the target of net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 210 million, a decrease of 14.3% at the same time, corresponding to the target of net interest rate attributable to the parent company of 2.5%. The operating revenue target of 15 billion yuan will be achieved in 25 years, an increase of 95% over 21 years, corresponding to 18% CAGR in 21-25 years; The net profit excluding non parent company is expected to be 420 million yuan, an increase of 91% compared with that of 21 years, corresponding to CAGR of 17.5% in 21-25 years; The corresponding deduction of non parent net interest rate target is 2.8%.
5. Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) : performance review for 21 years: focus on the reform of main business and the performance improvement can be expected. The company issued the performance announcement for 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 1.76 billion (- 15.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 80 million yuan (- 145.5%); The single Q4 revenue was 560 million yuan (+ 13.0%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 80 million yuan (- 322.8%), and the performance was lower than expected.
The adjustment and upgrading of product structure and the increase of price will drive the high growth of income
In 2021, the revenue of soy sauce / vegetable oil (accounting for 49% / 31%) was 860 million / 550 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.3% / – 14.2%; The revenue of small products (mainly vinegar, chicken essence, monosodium glutamate and other products) reached 340 million, a year-on-year increase of – 17.3%. The decline in revenue is mainly due to the impact of community group buying and the decline in consumer demand. The company has carried out a large number of product promotion and gift activities for the preservation market, resulting in the decline of customer unit price. The company has raised the price of products in November 2021 by 3% – 7%, and the transmission of new prices has been basically completed. It is expected that with the acceleration of the process of product structure adjustment, the proportion of high-end price belt products will increase rapidly, and the price increase will drive the higher growth of revenue.
Actively optimize the dealer structure and speed up the coverage of terminal outlets
In 2021, the revenue of central China / East China / Southwest / South China / North China / Northwest / Northeast was – 18.2% / – 19.3% / – 7.6% / – 12.4% / – 12.4% / – 5.9% / – 1.1% year-on-year respectively, with a net increase of 131 to 1525 dealers and 62 / 56 / 29 / 8 / – 20 / 4 / – 8 dealers in Central China / East China / Southwest / South China / North China / Northwest / Northeast respectively. “Three expansion” of the company
The strategy of (expanding dealers, channels and terminal outlets) has achieved certain results and further consolidated the stock market.
In the future, the company will continue to deepen the traditional channels, explore the big business model with dealers, and integrate the national channel resources more efficiently; And has begun to layout new media, community group buying, catering and other new channels to explore the incremental market.
Profitability needs to be improved, and short-term performance is expected to improve
1) profit side: in 2021, the gross profit margin of Q4 company was 20.1% / 16.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.0pct / – 4.2pct, which was mainly affected by the rise of raw material cost; 2021 / single Q4 net profit attributable to parent company was – 4.6% / – 14.7%, with a year-on-year rate of – 13.1pct / – 22.1pct, which was mainly due to the company’s increasing product promotion and increasing front-line market business personnel and expense investment in order to stabilize market share and expand new business areas; 2) Expense side: in 2021, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was + 3.3pct / + 2.0pct / + 0.1pct / – 0.3pct year-on-year respectively, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio of 21q4 company was + 12.0pct / + 1.9pct / + 0.5pct / + 0.9pct year-on-year respectively. Due to the company’s many initiatives and measures to adjust the company’s business in 2021, all expenses increased significantly, and the effect of expense investment is expected to be fully reflected in 2022, In addition, the company’s performance is expected to be significantly improved in 2022 under cost control and retraction.
The management structure has undergone profound changes, and the medium and long-term performance flexibility can be expected
In the medium and long term, the organizational reform of the company continues to deepen, and the performance elasticity can be expected under the condition of cost reduction and efficiency increase. 1) Strategic focus and clear playing method: the company’s salt reduction product matrix is perfect, and all channels and price bands are covered, which can be attacked and defended. The company tilts resources to invest, and the profit margin of the channel is higher than 10% – 15% of that of general products. At the same time, it gives dealers additional rebates, and the channel thrust is sufficient. At this stage, we will focus on promoting the dynamic sales in the multi billion market and high-speed wire market, and create various model dynamic sales models, which are expected to be replicated nationwide in the future; 2) The change of organizational structure provides bottom support: the company specially sets up the salt reduction division to focus on assessing the proportion of salt reduction products, integrate the supply chain department, improve the efficiency of front office operation and service, accelerate the delivery speed, reduce the inventory pressure of dealers, and help to improve the willingness of dealers to cooperate.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the multi factor improvement of 22q2. Current time point: priority should be given to the required leading target & the optional high-quality leading with continuous improvement of profitability: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
1) compared with the past 20 years, a major problem faced by the popular products sector is the greater pressure on the cost side. Due to the continuous rise of raw materials in the past 21 years and the impact of international geopolitical conflicts in the past 22 years, the cost of most raw materials and packaging materials of popular products is still at an all-time high. Therefore, priority should be given to [mandatory consumer products with relatively high performance certainty]. At the current time, we suggest to pay attention to [ Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ], [ Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) ], where the price increase is conducted smoothly and the cost has an inflection point.
2) at the same time, we also suggest paying attention to the leaders of optional consumer goods with the logic of improving profitability and reasonable valuation after the post epidemic demand is repaired: [ Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ], [ Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) ].
3) in addition, the value of defense allocation of leading dairy enterprises is prominent. It is expected to promote double-digit income growth through volume increase + category structure adjustment + product structure upgrading, and improve profit margin through cost rate optimization: [ Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ].
Looking forward to the follow-up: we need to observe the multi factor improvement opportunities of cost inflection point, demand repair and epidemic recovery.
In 22 years, with the improvement of many factors such as the gradual resolution of the epidemic, the recovery of consumer demand and the decline of cost pressure, the sub sector is expected to usher in marginal improvement. It is suggested to pay continuous attention to Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , etc.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; Baijiu sales recovered less than expected. Food safety risks.
