Key investment points:
Since the beginning of the year, we have proposed the “three low” strategy in the earliest, most firm and most systematic way, and its effectiveness has been continuously verified.
At present, the market thinks that the comparative advantage of the three low is coming to an end, but we think that the comer can be traced back, and the comparative advantage of the three low is still in its early stage.
Logic 1: three low advantages are still significant
Combined with the first quarterly report of the Fund recently disclosed, although it has experienced the style convergence in the first quarter, the changes of equity fund positions in the three low sectors are still relatively limited. In terms of data, compared with 21q4, the bank increased its position the most, but only 1.27 percentage points. The latest proportion of banks is about 4.29%, and the low allocation and low allocation are still 7.31%. In addition, the increase in positions of real estate, transportation and construction in the stable growth chain is smaller, which are 0.74, 0.15 and 0.14 percentage points respectively. The 22q1 positions of the three industries account for 2.24%, 1.40% and 0.59% respectively, which is still very significant compared with the top four industries, namely power equipment (16.43%), medicine and Biology (13.38%), food and beverage (13.21%) and electronics (10.88%). Even with the combination of valuation and stock price, the three low sectors represented by steady growth, travel chain, inflation chain and dividend chain still have obvious comparative advantages despite the style convergence since the beginning of the year.
Logic 2: economic recovery is waiting for an inflection point
In terms of the relationship between economy and style, the comparative advantage of growth is often reflected in the stage of weak economic recovery, such as 2013 and 2019, while in the stage of economic slowdown, such as 2012, value stocks often have comparative advantage. Looking forward to the follow-up, Q2 is still in the window period of steady growth, and the economic recovery may not be clear until the second half of the year. Specifically, first, with the spread of the impact of Omicron, three districts (sealed control area / control area / prevention area) have been set up in many cities across the country to curb the spread of the epidemic, which has disturbed China’s production and consumption activities in the short term; Second, from the perspective of commercial housing sales, there is no turning point for improvement in the short term.
Logic 3: US debt peaking needs to wait
There is a strong negative correlation between the yield of US bonds and the trend of growth index. For US bonds, high inflation is the key influencing variable. As the Federal Reserve starts the interest rate hike cycle to curb inflation, we should also pay attention to the disturbance of the decline of potential demand to US stocks. Looking forward to the follow-up, we still need to wait for the inflection point of the peak of US debt and the potential fluctuations of Chinese and US stocks in the process of controlling inflation.
Three low clues: four configuration directions
We combed out the related fields of real estate chain and dividend chain by combing the following three clues: the real estate chain, the dividend chain and so on. For the real estate chain: (1) focus on Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; (2) Bank, pay attention to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) ; (3) Home appliances, focus on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ; (4) Light industry, pay attention to Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) . For the travel chain: focus on Air China Limited(601111) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) . For the dividend chain: focus on Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) , Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) . For the inflation chain: (1) agriculture, pay attention to Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; (2) Mass consumer goods, focusing on Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , etc.
Risk tip: global inflation continues to exceed expectations; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to exceed expectations.
